Leadership (Abuja)
Kunle Somorin
1 April 2008
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Abuja — The poorest people in the world's poorest countries will suffer the earliest and the most from climate change, according to this year's edition of the Environmental Review. The report says that, due to their geographical location, low incomes, and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, the poorest countries and people are suffering earliest and are poised to suffer most. But adapting to climate change can also serve to meet the development objectives of these countries writes KUNLE SOMORIN.
Like Lagos, the commercial capital of Nigeria, a first time visitor to Cairo in Egypt or Addis Ababa in Ethiopia is welcomed by constant stream of old cars and buses, many caught up in traffic jams, known in Nigeria's local parlance as "go-slow". These vehicles spew out noxious gases. When mixed with the cities' industrial smoke, the resulting smog can be both blinding and suffocating.There are no energy efficient diagnostic unit vans, nor are there measures for curtailing the debilitating effects of the poisonous gases emitted into the atmosphere and inhaled by the citizens in order to preserve humanity and keep them ill-health-free.
Not many people snorted when Western nations started campaigns on global warming. At the height of the brouhaha last year, Britons called on the then Prime Minister, Tony Blair to suspend his jet-totting and holidays as an exemplar to boost the campaign. Even if the Prime Minister repudiated the suggestion, the implication was not loss on the people. But in Africa, ignorance has taken the better part of our valour.
Needless to say that the problems created by climatic changes and variability are legion, in terms of interactions between human activities and environmental processes, as well as socio-economic planning and development globally. In sub-Saharan Africa, reputed to be the least developed region of the world, the impact-assessment is in tandem with its technological and governance deficiencies.
The increasing greenhouse effect due to increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, the chlorofluorocarbons, Nitrous oxide, Methane, tropospheric ozone among others have far reaching implications for Africa.
As if to confirm this warming trend, the 1980's appear to be the warmest decade on record with six warmest years on record having fallen within this period and 1988, 1987, 1981 being the warmest years in that order. Many scientists question whether the above evidence indicates greenhouse warming? Of course, there remains some uncertainties in the scientific areas particularly with respect to the extent of expected changes and their impacts. Present wisdom is that the existing uncertainties should not unduly delay action. It is known that the cost of timely intervention is some orders of magnitude lower than the cost of delayed action.
It is therefore pertinent to draw attention of the potentials impacts of expected climate change with a view to sensitising decision makers to the urgent need to take appropriate anticipatory measures (both at the technological and policy levels) to avert or mitigate their perceived disastrous consequences. The focus is on coastal state because, apart from the other impacts to be felt by landlocked states, they face the additional impacts due to accelerated rise in eustatic sea level.
As a result of global warming, sea level is expected to rise by' 20cm (probable range 1O-32cm) and 48cm (probable range 33-75cm) by 2030 and 2070 respectively due mainly to thermal expansion of the oceans and small mountain glaciers.
Although higher temperatures would result in increase in precipitation, the accompanying increases in evaporation and potential evapo-transpiration rates would promote a tendency for droughts and desertification to occur in many areas; for example, in parts of the Savanna areas where increased evaporation rates are likely to be considerable greater than the increases in precipitation. The tendency towards drought and desertification will be more. So against the background of the projection that population pressure and human interference, would be considerable higher than at present. In parts of tropical rainforest zone, increased rainfall will render near neutral soils acidic making them less suitable for the cultivation of a traditional crop like cocoa. On the other hand, it may render parts of the Savanna and semi-arid zones too humid for the cultivation 'Of crops such as millet and sorghum. Increased rainfall may also lead to increased leaching of soil nutrients rendering them less productive.
Increased humidity and temperature will create more favuorable conditions for rapid multiplication of insects such as mosquitoes, tse-tse fly, ticks and fungi and weeds. Trypanosomiasis amongst livestock and sleeping sickness among humans will increase. Malaria may reach epidemic proportions in many areas. Incidents of skin cancers may probably increase. And temperature and humidity sensitive plant diseases and weeds may increase to cause greater damage to agricultural produce.
In coastal states, more rapid rise in sea levels would aggravate the existing ecological problems through accelerated coastal erosion, more persistent flooding, loss of productive wet-lands and river flood plains, increased salinisation of rivers and groundwater aquifers and greater influx of diverse pollutants. Other socio-economic impacts envisage include uprooting human settlements, disrupting transport and communication infrastructure, upsetting the rich fishery, crippling food production, wiping out the fledging coast based tourism etc. People and businesses will be forced to relocate. Some islands may disappear altogether (e.g Maziwi Island, Tanzania) with attendant social and economic disruptions; the levels of misery will be generally high.
Higher atmospheric temperatures and increased sea level rise as a result of climate change are realities that human beings have to cope with now or in the future. It is thought that even if all suggested measures to stop the further introduction of greenhouse gases were put in place now, the world will still experience a lot of the anticipated impacts due to "sins of omission and commission" already perpetrated, leading towards global warming.
In planning strategies for tackling the potential problems of climate change, two aspects of the strategies may be noted. These are (a) strategies for averting the change, and (b) strategies for mitigating the effects of the change.
Strategies for averting climate change (called "preventive" options) fall into three categories: (a) those for reducing the demand for fossil fuels, especially by conserving and using alternative energy sources, (b) those which adopt technical solutions to collect and control carbon dioxide emissions and, (c) those which involve increasing biomass production including re-afforestation of denuded areas.
Strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change includes measures that protect ("protective" options) e.g the application of technical, engineering or structural responses and those that will help to increase man's resilience ("adaptive" options) to the effect such as relocation, improved water and soil management, application of new agro-technology, improved land-use policies, maintenance of food reserves and the introduction of disaster relief measures. Other adaptive strategies are those that lead to improved choices. Such measure include those employed for (a) environmental monitoring and early warning systems, (b) acquiring and applying improved climatic data, (c) providing public information and education and; (d) investing in the transfer and use of appropriate science and technology.
Most of the measures discussed are significant, not only for long-term changes in climate, but for short-term climatic variations. Even if climatic changes or variations do not occur or do occur with diminished effects than those predicted, the suggested measures would still be beneficial for social and economic development. Thus there is need for urgent action particularly because of the rapidly growing population 'and the changing environment in the continent.
Finally, it is true to state that only few problems that have faced humanity in recent memory have the kind of global implications that the expected climatic changes portend. While actions are important at national and regional levels, it is fair to state that global partnership should be our abiding goal in addressing the problems associated with climate change. In this regard, the present salutary roles being played by bilateral and multilateral agencies (e.g. those of the United Nations Organisation such as UNEP, WMO, IOC etc.) in forging international collaboration on the all-encompassing problem of Global Change, need to be further strengthened. The time for communal discussions and concerted actions is now.
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