Addis Fortune (Addis Ababa)
Wudineh Zenebe
7 April 2008
A native of the Gerar Jarso Wereda in the North Shoa Zone of the Oromia Regional State, Mekete Debalke is a farmer who sweats to support his extended family of nine. Cultivating wheat, sorghum, barley, pea and teff on his eight hectare plot of land, the 40 year old is admired by his fellow farmers for his surplus bi-annual harvests. Unfortunately, Mekete seems to have found himself in a defeating moment of late. The Belg rainfall, which farmers count on for their second cultivation of the year, has not been available this year.
"We have yet to get even a light rainfall," said Mekete, anxious.
It has been six months since he began preparing his two hectare agricultural land for cultivation. He ploughed it in September 2007, but could not re-plough it as there is not even scanty rainfall to wet his parched plot.
He reminisces about the uninterrupted rainfall which fell last year at the same time and helped him harvest 80qts of barley.
"My only choice now is to expect the coming summer rainy season," he said.
Mekete is an inhabitant of a highland, where there is an annual rainfall of 800-1,200mm. According to the Atlas of the Ethiopian Rural Economy, barley and wheat are the main crops grown in highlands while teff, an indigenous crop, grows at 1,500-2,300mts above sea level. Corn and sorghum are best suited for the lowlands.
Nonetheless, the belg rainfall has not met farmers' expectations. The Ethiopian Meteorology Agency had also forecast that there would be scanty rainfall in the season which began in February.
Last year, barley was sold for 260-300Br per quintal following the mid- year harvest. This price is expected to significantly rise this year, compounded by the all time high cost of fertilizer.
"Production will drop remarkably," says Abiy Hinsene, general manager of Biftu Selale Farmers Cooperative Union.
The union supplies agricultural inputs to farmers in 12 weredas stretching from Sululta, 25km far from Addis Abeba to Goha Tsion 161km far from Sululta.
Established in January 2005, Biftu Selale has procured 25,000 metric tonnes of urea. Together with the Dap fertilizer it bought from other unions, Biftu Selale has made 146,000qts of both fertilizer types available for farmers.
Nonetheless, due to the absence of rain this March, Biftu Selale and other cooperative unions are forced to sit on their mountains of fertilizer.
"We are confused as the farmers are not coming to purchase fertilizers," Abiy told Fortune.
According to Abiy, his union had planned to collect last year's debt from farmers before informing them about the fertilizer prices this year because there were fears that the farmers would walk away for good. Unfortunately for the union, the farmers did not come demanding fertilizers in the first place.
Biftu Selale has yet to collect a 34 million Birr debt from the previous years' fertilizer sales and has planned to supply farmers this year with 50pc credit.
The cooperative's union has 7,300 members organized under 24 basic farmers' cooperatives. Its total wealth has risen to 42 million Birr from 305,000Br when it was established.
Teyib Ousman, also a resident of the Gerar Jarso Wereda, is a farmer who supports members of his household with the harvest that he reaps from his 1.5hec plot of land. To produce a reasonably adequate harvest, his patch needs more than five quintals of dap and urea annually. However, he does not seem to have the capacity to purchase the same amount for this year's cultivation with the escalating prices of fertilizer.
"I am planning to purchase a mere 2.5qts of fertilizer this year," says Teyib. "I, therefore, cannot cultivate the total land."
On average, fertiliser prices have been rising by 200 dollars on every tender offer this budget year, reaching 871 dollars per tonne at the last procurement. Compared to last year, the price has almost doubled.
Last year, a tonne of fertilizer dap was sold for 366-400 dollars. When distributed to the farmers, a quintal of fertiliser went for 350-420Br. This year, however, a quintal of fertilizer is expected to be distributed to farmers for 600-700Br.
Yerer Cooperatives Union, which procured a tonne of fertilizer for 854 dollars this year, will retail it at 950 Br per quintal, confided Kasahun Abera, general manager of the union which is based in North Shoa Zone of the Oromia Regional State.
According to Mengistu Kebede, general manager of Chemtrade International Plc, and representative of Ameropa, a supplier of fertilizer, this should not surprise anyone considering what is coming ahead.
He wonders if Ethiopian farmers would, any way, use fertilizers next year.
The international price of fertiliser has now gone up to 1,000 dollars per tonne and it is expected to increase even more.
According to an expert, there is currently a scarcity of phosphate, a major input for fertiliser production. Compounded by the oil price hike, the rise in investment costs has therefore pushed the price of the fertilizer to an all time high.
"It is not enough," says Mengistu. "Vessel rent has also picked from 52 dollars last year to 98 dollars," he bemoans. "The cost of bagging the bulky fertilizer at the Djibouti port has also doubled from seven dollars to 14 dollars per tonne."
Chemtrade needs seven vessels to transport the 180,000tns of fertilizer that it supplies to cooperative unions.
Ethiopia's annual fertilizer consumption has been increasing every year. Suppliers of the commodity are also gradually changing from private companies to cooperative unions.
In 2005/06 budget year, 376,000tns of fertiliser were imported and this grew to 650,000 metric tonnes in the following year. For the 2007/08 budget year, 530,000tns of fertiliser have already been procured but it has yet to be purchased by farmers due to the failing rains.
There have been claims that the lack of adequate rainfall is costing the lives of humans and cattle in pastoral areas of the country, although the Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, denied these claims during his half-year parliamentary report last week.
According to Amare Babo, metrological analysis and forecast department head at the Ethiopian Metrological Agency, the Belg rains have failed, except in the South West and southern parts of Ethiopia, as well as in western Oromia and Gambela. Belg rainfall spans from February to mid- May.
Says Kasahun: "Although our zone does not cultivate during these months of the year, it would have helped us to prepare the land for the summer cultivation."
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