Jeff Otieno
12 April 2008
Nairobi — An overwhelming majority of Kenyans support the power-sharing deal between President Kibaki and Prime Minister-designate Raila Odinga. However, they do not believe the partnership will last.
According to a new opinion poll conducted by Steadman Research, 75 per cent of Kenyans support the National Reconciliation Accord signed by the two leaders on February 28 and witnessed by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan and Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete.
However, despite the overwhelming support for the accord, about half of Kenyans doubt that it will hold for the full five-year term of the current Parliament, given the deep-seated mistrust between ODM and PNU. The research says only 36 per cent of Kenyans believe beyond reasonable doubt that the deal will hold for the next five years.
The poll was released on the day ODM appeared to climb down on their demand for sharing in appointments of permanent secretaries, diplomats and parastatal chiefs with the Government/PNU coalition.
Mr Odinga's spokesman, Mr Salim Lone, said the party would now seek to be consulted in any such appointments.
"As an equal partner in a grand coalition government, it is only fair that ODM is consulted before top civil servants such as permanent secretaries are appointed," he said.
According to him, ODM would wait for an invitation from President Kibaki for a meeting to resolve issues which have delayed the naming of a grand coalition Cabinet.
Elsewhere, Catholic bishops called on President Kibaki and Mr Odinga to be decisive and give Kenya a new Cabinet quickly. The bishops have held separate meetings with the two leaders in the past two days.
The breakthrough in negotiating a climb down by ODM on demands for a say in the naming of senior civil servants appeared to have been brokered by US ambassador Michael Ranneberger.
Government spokesman Alfred Mutua described the latest ODM statement as "welcome" and said there was now a possibility of a meeting being organised soon between President Kibaki and Mr Odinga.
"Many issues and partnership arrangements will be resolved and shared within the Coalition Government once it is formed," the statement stated.
Steadman's political analyst Tom Wolf said that although people supported the Peace Accord and believed that the 50-50 power-sharing deal was in order, many have expressed disappointment over the never-ending political fights between the two leading parties.
"The percentage of those skeptical about the deal holding for the next five years might even be higher than 50 per cent if the study was conducted today given the impasse in the announcement of a new Cabinet and the re-emergence of violence in some parts of the country," said Dr Wolf as he presented the study at the Steadman headquarters in Nairobi.
The poll, which interviewed 2,011 adults between March 28 and April 7, 2008, says only 20 per cent of Kenyans do not support the peace accord, three per cent had no opinion, while another three per cent refused to answer.
Kenyans, according to the research, give different time frames on how long the accord will hold. Some believe it will hold for between two and three years while others say it will only last for one year or less.
Violence
The study, which was conducted in 55 districts including those affected by post-election violence, shows that nearly half of Kenyans (49 per cent) believe there will be widespread violence if the agreement collapses, while 33 per cent think there will be a re-election.
Dr Wolf says most Kenyans are aware of the consequences of the collapse of the peace deal adding that many wanted to see it succeed.
On whether one political party, be it PNU or ODM, could run the government without the other, only nine per cent supported the view. Fifteen per cent are not sure what will happen if the deal collapses.
"Kenyans are aware of the accord and believe that the parties need each other to govern the country peacefully," said Dr Wolf.
While half of Kenyans fear that the grand coalition may not last the full five-year term, the majority are not ready for another election any time soon.
According to the study, 55 per cent of Kenyans do not support another election before the end of five years.
However, 41 per cent say they are ready for a snap election should the grand coalition fail to hold, while the remaining four per cent do not know.
It is apparent that many Kenyans still fear fresh election following the bungled December 27 General Election in which President Kibaki was announced the winner by the Electoral Commission, sparking widespread violence that left more than 1,200 people dead and about 350,000 others displaced. (Related story on Page 5)
"Those who do not want a repeat election any time soon are of the view that it might trigger another wave of violence," said Dr Wolf.
Asked to state the main cause of the violence, 65 per cent of Kenyans believed the announcement of President Kibaki as the winner triggered the violence in the Rift Valley, Western, Nyanza, Coast and Nairobi.
Other reasons are long-term grievances about land (12 per cent), hostility between communities (11 per cent), rivalry between local politicians (six per cent), the gap between the rich and the poor (two per cent) and other reasons (three per cent).
On whether a new constitution will be realised given the signing of the peace accord, majority of the respondents expressed skepticism with only 16 per cent mostly certain of a new document compared to 27 per cent who are mostly uncertain.
About 48 per cent are somewhat certain that the country will have a new constitution, while the remaining percentage do not know.
The majority of those interviewed also support a complete overhaul of the Electoral Commission of Kenya and are of the view that the commissioners should resign over their handling of the December 27 General Election. The percentage of those who do not have confidence in ECK, according to the study, had risen from a low of eight per cent in November last year to a high of 61 per cent late last month.
Political future
If uncertain political future were to result to an early election, about 45 per cent of Kenyans would support that it be held between six months and two years, between two years and five years (29 per cent), next six months (25 per cent). The remaining percentage refused to answer.
An overwhelming majority (88 per cent) support the resettlement of internally displaced persons as a priority for the new Government but only 24 per cent believe that the affected people will be able to return.
Despite the record seven per cent economic growth achieved last year, many Kenyans doubt the economy will record positive growth given rising inflation.
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2008 The Nation. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
