The chief government negotiator and Internal Affairs Minister, Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, remains hopeful, as always, that peace talks with the Lord's Resistance Army can succeed.

But the odds are starkly weighed against Rugunda's positive outlook.

Not only has the cessation of hostilities agreement expired, there is virtually no one to negotiate an extension with at the moment, with rebel negotiator, David Nyekorach Matsanga, resigning or being sacked last week. Matsanga himself had replaced Martin Ojul who was axed in December.

Speaking to The Weekly Observer on phone early this week shortly after returning from Juba, Rugunda said "the leadership and composition of the LRA team is in abeyance."

He however insisted that the government maintains contact with the LRA.

But this contact is made even harder by the absence of Vincent Ottii, who was killed on Joseph Kony's orders last October.

Ottii had made himself available and would speak to chief mediator, Dr. Riek Machar, the South Sudan Vice President, every time Kony made a disappearing act like the one he pulled off on April 10.

With another Kony deputy, Odhiambo, feared killed, information Dr. Rugunda said was yet to be verified, there remains almost the shadowy LRA leader alone to speak to.

That is why Dr. Riek Machar has since April 10 camped at Nabanga, at the South Sudan and DR. Congo border, hoping to speak to Kony but so far in vain.

With the Government of Uganda maintaining that the ceasefire agreement will not be renewed and hopes of a peaceful settlement of the 20-year rebellion fading, there is a possibility of guns blazing again.

Gun option

Dr. Rugunda told The Weekly Observer that the next course of action will be determined after studying reports from chief negotiator, Dr. Riek Machar and UN Peace Envoy, Joaquim Chissano.

Both Chissano and Machar were present to witness the signing of a peace deal that never was. But they stayed on at Nabanga, hoping to persuade Kony and possibly explain to him the clarifications he is seeking. These relate to his indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Speaking on phone from Gulu over the weekend, an ICC information officer told Capital Radio's Capital Gang that Kony and his co-accused are still wanted by the ICC.

Maria Mabinti Kamama, the public information and outreach coordinator, said the Government of Uganda could table the matter before the UN Security Council if it wants the indictments dropped.

In the aftermath of the confusion created by Kony's refusal to sign the agreement, President Museveni flew to Juba, the second time since the peace talks began, to speak to South Sudan leader, Gen. Salva Kiir.

The two agreed to study Chissano and Riek Machar's reports before taking any further course of action.

Museveni, who has consistently poured cold water on the negotiations must be feeling vindicated. In Juba, he described Kony as an unserious man.

The President favours using military means to end the rebellion. But this would not be necessary if the Ugandan army managed to keep the LRA out of Uganda as it has done in the last two years, of course helped by the cessation of hostilities agreement.

The LRA's capacity to wage war is unknown at the moment, but it must be remembered that they still keep hundreds of abducted children in their ranks. The involvement of children makes full scale war against Kony an unwelcome prospect in the region.

The UNICEF tried to secure their release at the beginning of the peace talks but the now deceased Vincent Ottii said, "They are our children."

It is also not clear how much co-operation Uganda would obtain from Sudan, DR Congo and Central African Republic, if it tried to pursue the LRA through these countries.

DR Congo's Joseph Kabila has never warmed up to President Museveni, which makes military co-operation against the LRA difficult. Only last year, the two countries almost went to war over a disputed island at the border.

This mistrust emanates from 1998 when Ugandan soldiers invaded DR Congo to fight ADF rebels but ended up deep inside Congolese territory fighting against the Kinshasa government.

The Army/Defence Spokesman, Maj. Paddy Ankunda, told The Weekly Observer that Uganda has an understanding with the South Sudan government (GOSS) and maintains limited military bases on its territory.

The UPDF would thus not find big problems working with the SPLA against Kony. But what about the Central African Republic (CAR)?

Here, Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) rebels are fighting to overthrow President Francois Bozize who visited Uganda last year. To neutralise the LRA there, Uganda would need the co-operation of both the rebels and Bozize's government, which is almost impossible to obtain. The government must be worried at the possibility of the LRA linking up with the anti-government CAR rebels.

It would be worse if the LRA crossed into the neighbouring Chad because here there is another rebel group - Union of Forces for Democratic Development (UFDD) - which is fighting to remove President Idriss Deby, a feat they almost achieved a few months ago, had it not been for French intervention. More over, the CAR rebels operate near the Chad border!

With such international dynamics at play, the government in Kampala is willing to go an extra mile to end the war peacefully.

In fact, Dr. Rugunda told The Weekly Observer that peace processes always have corners, and that the talks are "not yet over."

South Sudan

Uganda must also pray that the 2010 referendum on the status of South Sudan leaves that fragile territory in one piece. The referendum, coming at the conclusion of a six-year transition arrangement agree on in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, is to decide whether Sudan remains one or the South breaks away.

There are fears that if South Sudan achieves independence, war might break out between groups that were previously held together by the Khartoum government, as well as continental and international pressures.

For instance, Dr. Riek Machar's defunct SPLM faction - the Southern Sudan Independent Movement (SSIM) - had concluded a deal with Khartoum around 1991 after disagreements with the deceased SPLM leader, Dr. John Garang.

Their disagreement fanned tribal clashes between Machar's Nuer tribe and Dr. John Garang's Dinka. Tensions remain between these and other tribes in South Sudan.

The Khartoum regime does not favour an independent South Sudan as this would deprive it of oil wealth it currently shares with the semi-autonomous South.

Fresh fighting in South Sudan would give Kony's LRA a lifeline.

"It is our duty to get Kony to sign the peace agreement. He will be used by the Khartoum government against Uganda and also to destabilise the South by frustrating the Comprehensive Peace Agraament (CPA)," concurred Prof. Dani Wadada Nabudere, the Director of the Mbale-based African Study Centre.