17 April 2008
Lagos — Chuks Okocha reports that religion, Abuja influence and ethnicity are some of the determinants in the epic battle between the Action Congress (AC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the April 26, 2008 fresh gubernatorial election in Adamawa State.
Background
Adamawa State would be an interesting political theatre come April 26, 2008 when the fresh gubernatorial election takes place there. That day would make or mar the political history of the immediate past Vice President and the Action Congress (AC) presidential candidate in the April 21, 2007 election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
The election would determine who, between Admiral Murtala Nyako (rtd) and Alhaji Ibrahim Bapetel would occupy the Government House in Yola and direct the affairs of the state for the next four years. The former, who is the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was dethroned as governor following the success of a petition lodged by the latter, the AC over the exclusion of his name from the ballot by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
It impending contest promises to be interesting because Adamawa has become a sort of political hotbed, being the home base of many of Nigeria's influential politicians. The gladiators who are sharply divided politically have mainly congregated in AC and PDP.
Among stalwarts from the North-east state is the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who together with governor of the state, Mr. Boni Haruna seem to be the lone masquerades in the AC camp. Staked against them on the PDP side are two-time Minister and Nigeria's former Ambassador to the United States (US) as well as incumbent Senator, Professor Jibril Aminu, former Lagos State Military Governor, Ambassador Mohammed Buba Marwa, former Vice-Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University, Senator Iya Abubakar, Senator Silas Zwingina, business mogul and former Governor of old Gongola State, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and Alhaji Mahmud Tukur, a Minister under General Muhammadu Buhari's regime.
Other big shots include former Minister of Industries and one-time Nigeria's envoy to the US, Ambassador Hassan Adamu, former Minister of Agriculture, Alhaji Adamu Bello, former All Peoples Party (APP) National Chairman and later Presidential Adviser, Senator Mahmud Waziri and former All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) governorship candidate in the 2003 Elections, Alhaji Adamu Modibo, who has since decamped to the PDP.
Among other influential leaders from the state are technocrat and civil servant, Dr. Ahmed Joda, former Inspector General of Police and opposition politician, Alhaji Muhammadu Gambo Jimeta, former Education Minister under late General Sani Abacha's regime. The latter was said to be the first minister from Adamawa State to emerge from outside the Fulani Muslim stock. The list is endless.
Religious/Ethnic Divide
Adamawa State is reputed to be home to more than 50 ethnic groups. It is a state where religion and personality play more important parts than party loyalty. In the state where one belongs in the matrix of the social divides matters a lot concerning his fate in the power play. The dominance of the Fulani Muslims dates back to the colonial and military era. This could explain why there was more patronage of the Fulani Muslims.
Basically, the state is made up of Christians and Muslims, but the Muslims are divided into two parts namely the Fulani Muslims and other ethnic Muslims. There has always been an air of superiority among the Fulani Muslims who claim to be the foundation Muslims as opposed to the indigenous stocks that were said to have been converted upon conquest. This divide is not visible among the Christians.
The population of the state is about 55 percent for Christians and 45 percent for the Muslims. But the Muslims have always been more cohesive and close knit in the politics of the state. This greatly contributes to election fortunes.
Another influential factor is the economic power, which to a great extent is concentrated in the hands of the Fulani Muslims, while education is sparsely concentrated in the hands of other ethnic groups. But the preponderance of the educated elite belongs to the Christians and other ethnic Muslims than the Fulani Muslims.
Although the Fulani Muslims have the bulk of the economic powers, numerically, they cannot win any major elections on their own without the support of other ethnic Muslims and Christians. It is as result of this reality that a coalition of becomes a desiderata during election times like this.
This is where the political personalities and ethnic origin of the indigenes of the state come into play. A perfect combination of personality and religious considerations would to a great extent determine where the political pendulum would swing than party loyalty.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, for instance, is from Jada Local Government Area. Although a Fulani-Muslim he is known to have associated himself both politically and economically with Christians and other ethnic Muslims a lot.
It should be borne in mind that the Christians and other ethnic Muslims are in the majority over and above the Fulani Muslims
The Fulani Muslims are not happy that Atiku's political machinery in Adamawa State is in the hands of a Christian from Higgi, former Governor Boni Haruna. The opposition to Boni Haruna being in charge of Atiku's political machinery in the state dates back to when Atiku was chosen as a running mate to General Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999. It was the thinking by the Fulani Muslims that the governorship baton ought to have been handed over to another Fulani Muslim rather than a Christian. Boni's candidature was challenged in the court up to the Apex Court and he was returned victorious. Ibrahim Bapetel is a protégée of Atiku through Boni.
Power Equation
To understand the battle for political supremacy between Fulani Muslims, on one side and other ethnic Muslims and Christians, the following political calculation will suffice and this could determine the way things will play themselves out during the April 26 fresh gubernatorial election.
In the PDP, all the sensitive political appointments by the ousted Nyako Government, before the nullification, were held by Fulani Muslims. But in the AC, there is a marked variation. An element of balancing is in-built in its formation. The chairman of the party in the state is a Christian- Lyn Nathan. He was a former Deputy Governor under Alhaji Saleh Michika when he was the governor on the platform of the National Republican Convention (NRC). The governorship candidate Ibrahim Bapetel is a Muslim, while the Secretary of the party is a Christian.
It was to ensure political and religious balancing that Bala Takaya was edged out from becoming the AC governorship candidate. Takaya, a renowned politician is from the same senatorial zone with Governor Haruna, hence Takaya had to decamp to the PDP with the hope of getting the ticket, but it was not to be as the powers that be in the state gave it to Nyako without any contest. This could be an albatross, which the PDP have to carry into the election.
Contending Parties
A total of twelve political parties registered their intention to contest the April 14 governorship election in the state. The political parties are the PDP, AC, ANPP (the party has opted out of the fresh election) Peoples Progressive Party (PPP), Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA), National Conscience Party (NCP), Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), Alliance for Democracy (AD) Action Alliance (AA), Labour Party, All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and African Democratic Congress (ADC).
However facts show that of the twelve, only four parties could be said to have physical presence on ground and are in the governorship race.
Those in the real business of contending to occupy the Yola Government House include the PDP with the immediate past governor, Admiral Nyako as its candidate and the AC with former Finance Commissioner and Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Alhaji Bapetel, as their respective candidates. The latter was SSG under the government of Mr. Haruna. It is expected that the battle will be a two-cornered fight between the duo.
Be the first to Write a Comment!
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
