International Crisis Group (Brussels)
22 April 2008
press release
Dakar/Brussels — If Côte d’Ivoire is to avoid a return to violence, all actors must focus on creating the political and security conditions necessary for free and fair elections.
Côte d’Ivoire: Ensuring Credible Elections, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the conditions for new elections, which are now set to be held on 30 November 2008. However, the competition for the presidency, for which certain politicians appear ready to go to extremes, combined with the proliferation of armed groups and growth of impunity in recent years, present a potentially explosive environment.
“Technical and financial constraints are real, but the government is using them as excuses to justify delays”, says Gilles Yabi, Crisis Group Senior Analyst. “The real problems, which threaten the entire peace process, come from the political manoeuvrings of Ivorian leaders in the run-up to the elections”.
The 4 March 2007 Ouagadougou Peace Accord (OPA), in which the ex-Forces Nouvelles (FN) rebellion leader Guillaume Soro was appointed prime minister by his former adversary, President Laurent Gbagbo, has produced mixed results. There has been a general improvement in the security environment. However, overall implementation is far behind schedule, and there has been no decisive progress on two critical issues: “identification” of the population – determining who is a citizen and who may vote – and the disarmament of ex-rebels and militias and their reinsertion or reintegration into civilian life or the military.
These are the most politically sensitive and risky tasks, and they need to be undertaken now. The calm political climate since the signing of the OPA, though genuine, should not fool anyone. It will be difficult to reach an agreement among all political actors to create the conditions for democratic elections.
Three things are critical: strict adherence to the OPA by the signatories; implementation of a consensual security plan for the identification operations and the elections; and a conflict prevention strategy worked out with the help of Burkina Faso President Compaoré – the facilitator and arbitrator of the peace process – and the UN mission (ONUCI). Compaoré should expose the spoilers and recommend individual sanctions to the Security Council, of which Burkina Faso is currently a member.
“The struggle to influence the electoral process and the presidential campaign will be harsh and divisive, with the risk of returning the country to turmoil”, says Daniela Kroslak, Deputy Director of Crisis Group’s Africa Program. “But a successful outcome to the peace process is critical for the stability and economic future of all West Africa”.
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