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Kenya: Looming Food Shortage As Country Recovers From Crisis
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The East African Standard (Nairobi)
24 April 2008
Posted to the web 23 April 2008
Wandera Ojanji
Nairobi
Agricultural experts are concerned by the unfolding food security situation and are warning Kenyans to brace for harder times ahead.
With current food stocks - particularly maize, the main staple food - quickly running out of stock, the grim prospects of harvests from the main maize growing areas and escalating food prices, it is nothing but an unfolding of a historic calamity.
The Government had projected that the current maize stocks would sustain local needs up to August, this year when a new crop would be harvested. But these may be depleted much faster, according to the National Cereals and Produce Board, citing increased demand for stocks.
The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (Ratin) estimates that maize stocks will not be more than 673,743 tonnes by June, which are not sufficient for the country until the next harvest.
But relying on the next harvest is banking against false hope. Agricultural experts are warning of serious declines in production that may fall to as low as 50 per cent of the annual production figures.
Dr Romano Kiome, PS in the Ministry of Agriculture, has raised concerns that only 15 to 50 per cent of land in the North Rift has been prepared, a factor he attributes to post-election violence. Under normal circumstances, 50 to 80 per cent of the land in these areas would be prepared by end of February in readiness for planting.
And with the planting season almost over, his fears appear to have been compounded considering the dismal purchase of maize seeds by farmers in the main maize growing areas.
Sales from Monsanto, one of the leading seed merchants in the country, paint a grim picture. The company has only sold 50 per cent of what it did last year for the long rain seasons, according to Mr Kinyua M'Mbijjiwe, Monsanto's Commercial Acceptance Lead, Africa.
He attributes the low sales to post-election violence that made it impossible to gain access to seed markets.
"It was impossible to distribute seeds to many outlets. Some stores were burnt down or looted during the mayhem. No distributor was willing to stock-up in all the uncertainty."
Monsanto sales were no better in Central Kenya and other parts of the country that did not experience post-election violence. In these areas, the rising costs of fertiliser and fuel are to blame for the low sales. With fertiliser prices rising by more than 110 per cent, most farmers reduced their acreages and, consequently, seed requirements to balance with the amount of fertiliser they could afford.
And it is not that Monsanto had tight competition from other seed merchants.
For they tell similar stories. Farmchem Seedlinks, who market Pioneer Hybrid Maize, state that sales have been exceptionally low, a factor they attribute to many farmers not tilling their land.
Kenya Seed has seen its sales drop by 11 per cent. However, the company believes the rising cost of fuel and fertiliser are the main cause of the drop in sales and not post-election violence as majority of the farmers are still in their farms.
Indeed, the escalating cost of farm inputs has forced many farmers either to cut down on acreage under cultivation of grains like maize and wheat or resort to planting without fertilizer.
The Government acknowledges that the skyrocketing costs of farm inputs have been a major threat to land preparation and planting for the long rains. For instance, the fuel costs for land preparation have risen from Sh1,200 to Sh2,300 per acre. The price of fertilizer has almost doubled from Sh1,850 to Sh3,400 per 50kg bag with Kakamega and Bungoma recording prices as high as Sh4,000.
While the Government has been threatening to institute parallel importation of fertiliser and sell it at a reduced price to farmers, it is a threat that has been overtaken by events and best described as empty. The planting season is nearly over and not a single bag of fertiliser has been imported.
The impact of reduced acreage and non-application of fertiliser may not be obvious now, but will be in August when the current supplies have completely run out.
Reports attributed to Ms Felicia Ndung'u, the Trans-Nzoia District Agricultural Officer, indicate that the district will only produce three million bags of maize this season, down from six million last year following reduced acreage under cultivation of the crop from 109,557 hectares to 98,000 hectares.
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Uasin Gishu District Agricultural Officer, Ms Grace Kirui, projects production to fall to 3.7 million bags of maize this season down from 4.3 million bags last year. She says the area under maize has declined from 38,445 hectares to 32,293 hectares as farmers have moved to other more lucrative ventures like dairy farming.
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