Kampala — THE Lake Victoria water levels have risen but the amount of electricity produced at the Jinja-based hydropower complex will reduce further due to restricted water outflow.

Energy engineers familiar with the operations of Kiira and Nalubaale power stations disclosed that the rains had raised the water levels to 11.37m from 11.29m last month. But the Directorate of Water Development (DWD) is restricting water outflow.

"At this level, the agreed curve release rate is 800 cubic metres per second," a senior engineer explained.

"Increased power generation by Eskom depends on the release permit by DWD.

"The running permit for May and June, which has been already issued, is 800 cubic metres per second equivalent to a flat hourly average of 136 mega watts," he added. This stringent measure is likely to cause acute power shortages, experts have predicted.

Uganda requires 380MW of electricity to achieve the targeted 7% growth rate. The country's electricity supply is at 255MW, causing a deficit of 125MW.

Hydropower production dwindled with the reduction of water outflows. This led to procurement of expensive diesel- powered generators, pushing tariffs up thrice.

This has raised the cost of production, forcing some manufacturers to relocate to the neighbouring countries.

Daudi Migereko, the energy minister, expressed concerns over DWD's stringent measures.

"Even when we have reduced the water discharge for hydropower generation to 90%, water continues to disappear," he asserted.

"DWD and water scientists should find answers for the fall in water levels rather that concentrating on a small percentage."

He said the water for power generation was discharged in accordance with natural flow of the River Nile.

There have been numerous reductions of water outflows but the lake levels continued to recede until the rains intensified last May. Energy experts argue that drastic water outflow reduction would plunge the sector and the economy into a crisis because the measurement cannot be relied upon to plan for electricity supply.

"A decision to reduce hydro-power production should take into account the burden of expensive thermal power as an alternative," they warned.

"Thermal power should not be seen as a substitute for hydro-power in an effort to move towards the agreed curve.

"This is because the result to the consumer will be a burden of expensive thermal power with no improvement in the power supply."

They said even when the outflows were lowered, the lake continued to decline further, which demonstrated that reduction of water outflow was not a tool for lake recovery. Power cuts have for long been blamed on lower water levels in Lake Victoria.