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Kenya: Harsh Weather Patterns to Shrink Maize Production
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Business Daily (Nairobi)
29 April 2008
Posted to the web 29 April 2008
Steve Mbogo
Kenyans could soon be forced to adjust their eating habits as the favourite maize meal becomes more scarce due to the effects of climate change.
Options include sorghum, millet or cassava, unless scientists unveil maize varieties that can mature faster under reduced rainfall and rising temperatures.
The climate change, which has been informed by excess emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, has led to irregular rainfall and a rise in temperatures in Kenya.
With a huge fraction of Kenya's agricultural activities pegged on rainfall, experts have raised the red flag that the country was facing dwindling output from rain-fed agriculture with the maize crop set to bear the brunt.
"If measures are not taken to develop highly drought resistant maize variety, production will drop significantly in the next 10 years," says Lilian Njeri, a maize breeder at the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI).
Local scientists are predicting that temperature in Kenya will rise by two degree centigrade in the next 25 years. This means arable land will become drier.
But a lot has already been happening in the last 20 years. For instance, in Muguga, a high rainfall area in Kiambu District, changing climate is taking its toll on production with farmers shifting to other crops.
The area is located at an altitude of 2095 metres above the sea level. In the last 20 years, potatoes were one of the favourite crops for farmers like James Waruinge.
"The yield from potatoes has gone low. The crop is also vulnerable to diseases, some of which are new. I used to grow two acres every season for sale but bow I have shifted to maize," said Mr Waruinge.
Ms Njeri says it is not the farming methods that have changed but the climate such that potato seeds available cannot withstand weather changes.
In Muguga, residents used to grow maize varieties known as Hybrid 6, which were developed for high altitude and high rainfall fed areas.
"But now, farmers are coming to us asking for high altitude low rainfall fed varieties. The weather patterns have changed and are still changing," she said.
So, the situation is such that farmers in Muguga have opted for maize breed known as Hybrid 5 Series, which were originally developed for drier places like Ukambani, in Eastern Province.
The only consolation for Kenya today is a maize breed known as Hybrid 6 14, so far the most popular breed of maize because it adapts to various weather conditions, its yield is stable and it is sweet.
But the maize variety takes longer to mature, about 8 months, meaning it can only grow for a season per year.
But in unfavourable weather conditions, the maize can grow in six months but the yield becomes lower.
Breeders at KARI say they are in the process of developing a maize breed which can take four months to mature in places like Muguga.
"Before we give up on maize, however, we should work on developing a variety that is highly adaptive to drought," said Ms Njeri. Most maize breeders in Kenya are using the conventional breeding method, which does not involve genetic modification of the seed.
But the options are limited because one of the proposals being considered is to get a gene from a crop which is drought resistant and then introduce it to maize.
However, it is regarded as genetic engineering, which is not allowed by Kenyan laws.
A Bill to regulate development of new crop breeds through genetic modification, popularly known as GMO, is yet to be passed by Parliament.
The Bill has caused a lot of controversy with strong opposition from farmers groups, faith based organisations and the civil society.
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Despite the opposition, scientists who spoke to Business Daily and requested not to be named said they believe the best way to deal with food shortage occasioned by global warming is to go the GMO way.
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