The Weekly Observer (Kampala)
David Tash Lumu
1 May 2008
If Dr. Kizza Besigye chooses not to run for the FDC presidency come 2010, Uganda's most popular opposition party could look to Maj. Gen Mugisha Muntu, the party's Organizing Secretary - a survey suggests.
The political survey which was conducted by the Steadman Group in 55 districts in December last year indicates that Muntu, the longest serving army commander so far, would be better placed, more than any other person in Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to replace Besigye, who has twice contested for the national presidency and lost to President Yoweri Museveni of the NRM.
Out of the 1,979 respondents interviewed for the survey, 669 or (10%) revealed Muntu, who also represents the party in the East African Legislative Assembly, would be their preferred candidate if FDC decided to get a new leader.
Other possible party presidential candidates surveyed include Prof. Ogenga Latigo, the Leader of Opposition and FDC Vice President (North) who garnered 9%. Former Bugabula South MP who is also a party Vice President Salaamu Musumba also registered 9%.
Meanwhile, Aswa County MP Reagan Okumu who last year hinted that he might stand for party president, sparking off a heated succession debate, scooped only 2%, emerging last. However, 20% of the respondents did not commit themselves on the question.
The survey question was: "Since you feel that Kizza Besigye should not stand, who else would be your preferred personality to run for president under FDC?"
In a way, the findings of the survey confirm what has long been suspected as well as believed by some quarters in FDC that--- that Muntu, perhaps more than any leader in FDC, would be better suited to replace Besigye, if the FDC leader was to step aside.
Muntu is known to be an objective thinker, a principled person and an effective mobiliser.
What's more, his military background puts him on a good standing, considering the widely held belief that no one in the opposition can challenge President Museveni or rule the country, without marshalling the support of the military.
Beyond these factors, the survey results are likely to re-ignite the succession debate in the party, which was ignited by Okumu last year.
Though Besigye said then that it was good for someone else to come up and challenge him, it is known that Okumu's challenge created tensions within the party.
Yet crucially, there are emerging voices in FDC to the effect that Besigye's time is up--on account of having failed twice to defeat President Museveni.
Secondly Besigye, while seen as charismatic by some people, is seen as "too tough and angry" by others, a trait that some commentators say works against him.
But Besigye remains very popular, going by the survey.
Asked if Besigye should return as FDC candidate come 2011, 53% of the respondents said 'yes' while 34% said 'no'.
Muntu remains cautious and says he will not be swayed by the findings of the Steadman Group, a research firm. "Issues of leadership are party issues. I will have to look at the report first, study it and then take it on," Muntu said.
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