An unprecedented slump in tilapia production in China due to bad weather could provide an opportunity to Kenya and other exporters of rival fish species such as Nile perch to maximise on their sales.

A latest market report showed that intense and long winter conditions had greatly affected China's tilapia industry, sending output plummeting by up to 80 per cent.

Market players said China being a key producer of tilapia, the draw back in its local production is expected to cause a global scarcity that would last up to 12 months.

"Subsequently, prices have started to rise. Chinese exports of tilapia to certain African markets may be affected until the situation improves.

These developments could have a positive influence on Latin American tilapia producing countries like Ecuador, Costa Rica, Honduras and Brazil, which would be able to provide adequate supplies of tilapia, particularly fresh product, at better prices," the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in market report.

Analysts however said, suppliers of marine whitefish species, many of which had been substituted by tilapia products in recent times will also be able to take advantage of the situation.

Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda could particularly take advantage of the Chinese woes to boost their Nile perch exports that have been under intense pressure of competition from tilapia and pangasius species of fish, especially in special white meat segments, because of cheaper pricing.

The challenges of high market prices for Nile perch exporters such as the three East African nations have been partly because of depleting stocks and high costs of production, prompting fears that their occupation could be pushed out by competition.

"The outlook for Nile Perch remains bleak. On the one hand, catches are further declining, on the other hand, competition is strong and expanding in the fresh fillet segment," FAO warned in a Nile perch market report for July 2007.

A recent move by Anova, the leading importer of Nile perch into Europe, to expand its interest in the pangasius trade further sent chills down the spine of the Nile perch dealers because pangasius directly rivals their products in the market.

But with the dramatic situation in China, FAO said tilapia prices are likely to increase sharply, levelling out the advantage the species has upheld over Nile perch in the past few years.

In only three years, Chinese tilapia exports grew from 90 000 tonnes in 2004 to exceed 210 000 tonnes in 2007 worth about $ 500 million, with the US being the main importing country of tilapia from the Asian nation having taken 122 000 tonnes last year.

Analysts, however, warned that even with the drop in out put by China, Kenyan Nile perch exporters still faced a tall order because of the navigational challenges on Lake Victoria posed by various weeds that have invaded key fishing grounds on the lake affecting the movement of fishing vessels.

"We are tied up in many ways because weeds are all over the lake and we cant fish. Cost of production also remains high with the high costs of fuel and refrigeration facilities so the new opportunities would only remain a dream for many," Charles Otieno, a dealer in Kisumu, told Business Daily by phone.