South Africa: Shining a Critical Light On Plans for Repowering Country

analysis

Johannesburg — LAST year, when South Africans for the most part still enjoyed cheap and reliable electricity supply , the minerals and energy department produced a Master Plan for Electricity Security, which was approved by the cabinet. The plan did not, however, prevent the most extensive and costly failure in the history of the electricity supply industry in SA.

The plan failed to anticipate or address the immediate causes of the current blackouts: Eskom's deficiencies in coal contracting and its inability to keep its existing generation plant operating at acceptable levels. And while the plan recognised the need to restore generation reserve margins to at least 19%, its proposed investment programme has already slipped. For example, Eskom is not on track in bringing online either its next diesel-fired peaking units scheduled for this year or its next big coal-fired station originally slated for 2010. The master plan also anticipated that an independent power project (IPP) would start operation next year, yet this investment has been cancelled. Furthermore, barely a year later, the plan's assumptions about inflation, economic growth, electricity demand and power conservation may be seen to be way off beam.

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