ENOUGH Project (Washington, DC)
Julia Spiegel and John Prendergast
8 May 2008
document
Lord’s Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony’s failure to sign a peace deal in April drove a nail into the coffin of the Juba peace process—a process that is grinding to an unsuccessful end.[1]
The talks have certainly contributed to northern Uganda’s current state of relative peace and created a mechanism to address tensions between the people in the North and the southern-dominated government in Kampala. But without real leverage and without a direct channel of negotiations to Kony himself, the LRA leader has exploited this last year of negotiations to stave off international pressure, collect food and money from the mediators and donors, and buy time to abduct, train, and equip new combatants. Another meeting with the LRA high command and the mediators set for May 10 looks like it will just be more of the same.
Over the past two years, Kony has successfully morphed from a rebel/predator in northern Uganda into a genuine regional warlord, with small but deadly units marauding throughout eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Sudan, and the Central African Republic. The LRA abducted between 300 and 500 people in the region during the three-month lead up to the dramatic non-conclusion of the peace process.[2] These actions warrant investigation by the International Criminal Court and strong international censure. The LRA also established a new safe haven in southeastern Central African Republic (where it is abducting new recruits), complementing its established sanctuary in the Garamba National Park in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
The failure to reach a final deal with Kony last month sheds light on the critical issue that has plagued the Juba peace process from the outset. Negotiating a deal with the LRA diaspora delegation that purportedly represented Kony’s interests in the talks does not translate into a deal with Kony; his core interest in his personal security and livelihood is unrelated to the laundry list of grievances and negotiating positions of the diaspora delegation that negotiated.
With hopes of a peace agreement dashed by Kony’s intransigence, it is time for a new approach. While the Juba peace process did have certain benefits, it no longer makes sense for the mediators to attempt to appease an LRA that is intent upon spreading its terror across the region, and no longer worth delaying justice for the 1.5 million Ugandans who remain in the displaced persons camps created out of Kony’s horrors in northern Uganda. Some religious and cultural leaders from the North continue to reach out to Kony in the hopes of re-energizing the peace process. While their efforts are commendable, it has become clear that Kony is not interested in signing this agreement.[3] Talks therefore must come to a close.
Ugandan women peace protestersWhat is needed now is a two-track strategy that will both enable northern Uganda to consolidate its relative peace, and will address the regional threat that Kony now poses.
Track 1: Assist the people of the North with rebuilding their lives: In contrast to the remote chance of a deal with Kony, a huge opportunity exists in northern Uganda to facilitate the return of the long-suffering displaced people to their homes. While Kony and the LRA remain a looming regional threat, a serious attack in the North in the short term is unlikely. It is thus critical to use this time to promote reconstruction and development while providing maximal protection with Ugandan police and military forces so that civilians who choose to return home are not at undue risk. The Acholi communities—those in the North most affected by this war—should no longer be held hostage by the fits and starts in Juba. [4]
Track 2: Deal with Kony as a regional threat: The international community must demonstrate to Kony once and for all that his days of impunity are over. International leverage must be forged through the development of a credible regional military strategy to apprehend Kony and the other two LRA commanders indicted by the ICC.[5] Military planning should be accompanied by efforts to reduce external support for the LRA from the Sudanese government and from small, radicalized elements of the Ugandan diaspora who want to undermine Ugandan President Museveni’s rule. Specifically, the United States and the United Kingdom should sponsor a resolution through the United Nations Security Council to investigate diaspora members undermining peace efforts, and then provide information to the council to expedite further action by the Council. A list of spoilers should be made public and the Security Council should impose targeted sanctions against these individuals.
Fundamental to the success of this strategy is also a focused effort to induce more defections by LRA commanders in order to isolate Kony and erode the LRA’s core capacities. This, in turn, requires an effective disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration strategy and attendant funding. Once backed into a corner by the weight of the ICC indictments and a real threat of apprehension, Kony should be offered a take-it-or-leave-it third country exile option.[6] The idea of Kony having the luxury of exile is repugnant, but given the speed with which he and his forces are infecting the region, the immediate imperative is to remove him from the scene.
By addressing the grievances in the North that gave rise to the LRA in the first place and by directly dealing with Kony with both carrot and stick, the international community could seize the chance to end the LRA menace once and for all.
The Signing Mishap
After repeated delays called for by the LRA delegation to the Juba talks, the LRA and the Uganda government agreed that a final peace deal would be signed by Kony in Ri-Kwangba, a ghost town in southern Sudan near the Congo border on April 10. Within days, tents, latrines, and food had been flown into the remote bush area in preparation for a dignified peace ceremony. More than a hundred members of civil society, journalists, religious, and cultural leaders from the North, the LRA and Ugandan government delegations, and international observers were flown to the site to attend what would have been the momentous end to a 22-year long war. But Kony never showed.
What went wrong?
Kony's lack of seriousness: Since December of last year, communication with Kony has been erratic, primarily because of his self-isolation, the mobility of the LRA, and his general mistrust of the other parties involved in the peace process. Kony refused to speak to key leaders trying to broker peace, including chief mediator and Government of Southern Sudan Vice President Riek Machar and UN envoy Joaquim Chissano. That he was essentially incommunicado made it impossible for mediators to determine the rebel leader's position on a host of issues, the most important of which were his security and livelihood concerns. It also created serious disconnects between the LRA in the bush and its diaspora delegation in Juba, and between the LRA, Machar, and other invested parties. Furthermore, Kony's movement to and establishment of a base in the Central African Republic, the numerous raids and abductions conducted by the LRA in southern Sudan during the negotiations, and his decision to execute his second-in-command Vincent Otti all indicated that Kony was less than serious about peace.
The LRA’s internal divisions: Both the LRA delegation in Juba and main command in the bush are plagued by significant infighting that has undermined the peace process. LRA delegations to the peace talks have been hamstrung by suspicion and corruption. And within the LRA camp in the bush, a division between Kony and Otti loyalists persisted throughout the last round of negotiations and persists today. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that internal battles in February and April have left several LRA combatants dead, although rumors that one of Kony's key commanders, Okot Odhiambo, was killed in these disputes have proven false.[7] This divide could trigger a large number of defections, particularly in eastern Congo where MONUC is well placed to facilitate an exit strategy for those wanting to leave the bush.
The international community had no stick: Over the last 22 months or so, the LRA has incurred no costs, nor seen any meaningful pressure developed by the international community for repeated delays and significant violations of the cessation of hostilities agreement. Absent any repercussions, the LRA—and Kony specifically—felt little incentive to follow through on its commitments. Kony’s failure to show up at the signing ceremony was only the latest in a long series of breaches by a deadly militia that has terrorized civilians across three countries and spurned the international community without any fear of repercussions.
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The report fails to draw attention to precise aspects of the relationship between between the Acholi people and the government of Uganda and its agencies: for example the historical foundation to the relationship that determined certain structural features; the centemporary imperatives in in Uganda Army activities in Acholi communities; and the relationship between The Uganda Army and recorded artrocities; and the relationship of Acholi communities and the repressive state organs. The Report needs to pose the question of whether uganda government policies in Northern Uganda are enforcing genocide. During most times the policies were incontrovertibly genocidal… [Read Full Text]