ENOUGH Project (Washington, DC)
Julia Spiegel and John Prendergast
8 May 2008
(Page 2 of 4)
The mediation—Kony disconnect: The mediation also suffered from a critical flaw because the mediators had no direct channel to Kony. Instead, they relied on third parties and a diaspora delegation that was a step removed from the LRA in the bush. The absence of a direct channel not only meant that the mediators could not access and therefore more effectively persuade, cajole, and pressure Kony, but also that they were at the mercy of second- and third-hand accounts of his positions—accounts that, according to numerous international officials engaged in the talks, were often exaggerated. At the very least, the mediators have brought the talks to their conclusion. Thus the delivery to the LRA of money, medicine, cell phone minutes, and, most critically, time can now come to an end.
From Ugandan Rebel to Regional Warlord
The LRA will continue to terrorize the region until Kony comes out of the bush of his own volition, by force of arrest, or military defeat. With a new and largely impenetrable base in the Central African Republic, Kony and his forces pose an immediate threat to neighboring southern Sudan, northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and southeastern Central African Republic. Northern Uganda is the most difficult of Kony’s potential targets; it is far from his current operational base and better defended than other targets in the sub-region. It could, therefore, be spared from any attacks in the short term. However, civilians in neighboring countries are vulnerable, and if the LRA is not neutralized well in advance of the 2009 elections in Sudan, there is a real danger that the Sudanese government will, as it has done in the past, use the LRA as a proxy force to destabilize parts of southern Sudan in the run-up to the polls.
Urgent and Immediate Priorities
Two critical problems must be addressed now to salvage peace efforts in northern Uganda. First, the current peace effort lacks a channel to negotiate directly with Kony on the make-or-break issue of this deal: his security. On the remote chance that he will ever come out of the bush of his own accord, it will be conditioned on a credible guarantee that he will not be killed. Second, the peace process lacks leverage, which only the combination of the ICC indictments, a credible regional military threat, and a diminution of external support to the LRA, can provide.
There are now two main tracks that must be pursued simultaneously to secure peace in Uganda and the region: The first is to consolidate the fragile peace that does exist and enable the people of the North to return home and rebuild their communities, and the second is to address Kony and the regional threat he poses.
Track 1: Assist the people of the North with rebuilding their lives
ACTION ONE: The Ugandan government, backed by international donors, must rapidly begin implementing its reconstruction and development plan for the North.
Kids in UgandaGiven the relatively low risk of renewed LRA attacks in the North, the people there should not be held hostage by Joseph Kony’s refusal to sign a peace agreement. Moreover, the people in the Acholi sub-region of the North need to see evidence of a real commitment from the government of Uganda and international donors to build on the improvements in security that have been achieved in the past year so that they can begin the long process of rebuilding their lives—even before a final peace deal is signed.
Last October, the government of Uganda launched a three-year, $600 million Peace, Reconstruction and Development Plan for the North, but due to funding, bureaucratic, and political obstacles, implementation has yet to begin. Getting development and reconstruction projects started is a critical step toward restoring the confidence of the people in the North and encouraging people to return home.
Immediate needs are immense. Take, for example, the district of Pader. An estimated 189,117 of those displaced—roughly half of the district’s population—have already moved to more than 130 transit sites as an intermediary step, and another 39,196 people have moved home.[8] These people need clean water, education and health facilities, access to roads, food security, and employment, as well as support for the reconciliation and psychosocial programs. According to a United Nations humanitarian situation report in February, the current pupil-to-classroom ratio is 1-to-80, compared to the national average of 1-to-54. Classes in 63 schools take place under trees due to a lack of classroom facilities.[9] Robust engagement by international donors, including the United States, could help to kick-start the government’s plan.
It is critical that the Ugandan government work to restore its relationship with those living in the North in order to tackle one of the root causes of this longstanding conflict. While the LRA is partially responsible for the displacement of nearly two million people in the North, the Ugandan government holds the majority of blame for herding people into camps, a move they undertook because of their inability to provide sufficient protection to them in their home villages. The government thus bears responsibility to help them return home. Development and reconstruction efforts must also be accompanied by the pursuit of accountability and promotion of reconciliation. Because no specific mechanism for dealing with Ugandan military atrocities is proposed out in the Final Peace Agreement, these crimes will need to be addressed by other means, whether through traditional truth-telling and/or transitional justice mechanisms, in order for peace to take hold. As stated by Uganda analyst Adam O’Brien, “If meaningful implementation does not begin soon, the PRDP will join the large graveyard of previous initiatives that aimed to help develop and reconstruct the North, and Acholi distrust of Museveni will be reinforced.”[10]
ACTION TWO: Ugandan security forces must provide protection in the North.
While the LRA is unable to mount the number or style of attacks today that it launched in the past, small LRA remnants could still attack Ugandan civilians from across the Sudan border. Thus northern Ugandans have ample reasons to fear returning home and will need to see some measure of government protection in order to return to their home areas with confidence. As well, there is a need to protect returnees from a few small “sleeper cells” of LRA elements in the North and the few combatants that remain in areas not far from the border between southern Sudan and Uganda.
Ugandan security forces—both the army and the police—must deploy in ways that maximize the protection of potentially vulnerable areas in order to provide a deterrent to LRA attacks and a psychological comfort to returning Acholi civilians who have been traumatized by more than two decades of violence. Historically, the Ugandan military has not had clean hands either; as one Acholi leader told ENOUGH: "Our people have two enemies—the LRA and the Ugandan government—and no friends," largely because of abuses committed by the government’s military in the North over the years. Overcoming this prevalent attitude is a huge barrier to lasting peace, and a failure to do so quickly could spawn yet another insurgency.[11]
Track 2: Deal with Kony as a regional threat
The push-and-pull strategy that has been missing from the peace process thus far now must be applied.
The Push: Plan for military action and cut lines of support
ACTION ONE: The international community—regional states, U.N. missions, and key donors—must prepare to implement a regional military strategy.
It is time to send the signal that if Kony will not come in from the cold, then the international community will come after him. Drawing on their combined influence and distinct capabilities, the peacekeeping missions in the region[12] and the governments of Uganda, southern Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States, as well as other interested countries, should commence planning for operations to contain and ultimately apprehend Kony and other LRA leaders indicted by the ICC.[13]
This is not only a matter of international justice and the rule of law; if Kony and his LRA remnants are allowed to roam free, they can and will destabilize the region and rebuild their forces. All of the regional stakeholders, and their international partners, should collectively craft and be prepared to implement a military strategy to apprehend Kony and disband the rest of the LRA. This should be done under the auspices of the African Union or the Great Lakes contact group, but it will need the backing of strong international players with leverage and influence over the key regional actors.
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The report fails to draw attention to precise aspects of the relationship between between the Acholi people and the government of Uganda and its agencies: for example the historical foundation to the relationship that determined certain structural features; the centemporary imperatives in in Uganda Army activities in Acholi communities; and the relationship between The Uganda Army and recorded artrocities; and the relationship of Acholi communities and the repressive state organs. The Report needs to pose the question of whether uganda government policies in Northern Uganda are enforcing genocide. During most times the policies were incontrovertibly genocidal. Policies today are still genocidal in their impact and conscious intent. Policies have been have been articulated by the dominant interests of the Uganda Goverment in maintaining control. at both domestic and international level Acholi people have been increasingl;y defined as a security problem, as a law and order problem which has legitimised and demanded army intervention.