Africa Renewal (United Nations)
Mary Kimani
9 May 2008
One of more than 350,000 Kenyans displaced by the fighting that erupted after a disputed election in December. The crisis has inflicted a heavy toll both within the country and beyond its borders.
Kenya's post-election violence, which claimed an estimated 1,000 lives and displaced 350,000 people, appears to have abated. An agreement at the end of February to share power between government and opposition leaders has raised hopes of a return to stability. Because of Kenya's role as an economic powerhouse in the East African region, the seemingly brief crisis has already had significant economic and social repercussions well beyond the country's borders, and many worry that a resumption of conflict could have truly devastating consequences.
Violence broke out in Kenya on 30 December after Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent, was declared winner of the presidential election over Raila Odinga, despite objections by the opposition and election observers that the vote tally was seriously flawed. In addition to attacks by armed groups from the two sides, protesters' roadblocks along the main highways between Kenya and neighbouring countries curtailed trade and manufacturing in the region.
Such blockages, along with other economic disruptions, will likely slow economic growth throughout East Africa. Before the unrest, the five countries of the East African Community - Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda - expected to see their combined gross domestic product grow by 6 per cent in 2008. Economic analysts now predict that the region's growth rate will be at least 1.5 percentage points lower.
The ripples of the crisis have spread even wider. Blocked roads and vandalized rail lines have also hampered the transportation of humanitarian assistance to vulnerable groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and southern Sudan.
The power-sharing agreement, mediated on behalf of the African Union by Kofi Annan, a former UN Secretary-General, with support from a UN regional team, helped bring a halt to the violence. However, Donald Steinberg, deputy president of the International Crisis Group, a conflict monitoring think-tank headquartered in Brussels, notes that a resolution to Kenya's underlying social and economic inequalities must also be found to prevent a recurrence of conflict. "Kenya," he points out, "is the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan, a regional entrepot for trade and investment and a key anchor for the long-term stabilization of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi."
Transportation hub
Briefing the UN Security Council in February, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes noted the regional impact of Kenya's crisis has been particularly significant because of the country's long-standing role as East Africa's main transportation hub.
More than 80 per cent of Uganda's imports pass through the port of Mombasa, as do almost all of Rwanda's exports. Commercial trade and humanitarian assistance to Burundi, the eastern DRC, parts of northern Tanzania and southern Sudan also rely on the port. These countries are therefore "at risk of being significantly affected by violence and disruption" in Kenya, Mr. Holmes said.
A truck set on fire by Kenyan protesters: The blockage of highways and rail lines during the crisis seriously disrupted trade with neighbouring countries.
For a region that has been working hard towards economic integration, the disruptions of trade and business have been severe. Most commodities going through the port also must travel along the Northern Corridor, a network of highways through Kenya to neighbouring countries. Each day some 4,000 light vehicles, 1,250 trucks and 400 buses carry more than 10 mn tonnes of cargo to Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi along the network. However, in January and early February, an estimated 40 illegal roadblocks barred the way.
To open up the route, the Kenya army in February began providing security for vehicles travelling in convoy. But convoys are slow and costs multiplied. The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that fuel costs in Uganda, eastern DRC and Burundi rose by up to 50 per cent. The price of petrol products in Kigali, Rwanda more than doubled, and severe shortages prompted the government to institute fuel rationing.
According to the Uganda Manufacturers Association, food prices went up about 15 per cent, and in January inflation rose to 6.5 per cent from 5.1 per cent the month before. By mid-February manufacturers had lost $43 mn because of delays, destruction of goods and slowed production. The Uganda Revenue Authority reported daily revenue collection losses of up to $600,000 due to the disruptions in trade.
Air traffic between Rwanda, Burundi and Kenya declined because of the high cost of aviation fuel. Kenya Airways, the largest carrier in the region, also suspended direct flights to Paris, affecting passengers from Burundi, Rwanda, DRC, Seychelles and Comoros who had to switch to longer and more expensive routes. Bus companies servicing the Nairobi-Kampala and Nairobi-Kigali routes also cut down on trips because of insecurity and the slowness of secure convoys.
Relief aid endangered
Another concern is the disruption in the flow of food aid and other humanitarian assistance to some 7 million refugees and displaced people in the region. The survival of many of them depends on direct support from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) and other relief groups. The WFP moves 1,000 tonnes of food out of Mombasa port every day of the year. According to Alistair Cook, a WFP logistics officer, long closures of the route threaten to leave refugees facing starvation. "It's a very worrying problem," WFP spokesperson Peter Smerdon told the UN Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN).
The alternative route through Tanzania is 20 per cent more expensive and takes two weeks longer. The relief aid would first have to travel 1,000 km by road from Mombasa to Dar es Salaam, then another 980 km by rail to WFP's storage and milling plants in Isaka, western Tanzania. From there it would have to cross Lake Victoria to Port Bell, Uganda, by boat, then go by truck to southern Sudan and the DRC.
Mr. Holmes told the Security Council that the Kenya events have prompted OCHA to look at such contingencies. But transport through a peaceful Kenya, he ad-ded, "remains by far the preferred option."
Refugees are another concern. Currently only Uganda is hosting refugees from Kenya, about 12,000. Renewed conflict could create bigger flows of Kenyans to neighbouring countries, some of which are still politically unstable. The humanitarian consequences of new disruptions, said Mr. Holmes, "could dwarf anything we have seen so far."
Kenya itself hosts about 90,000 refugees from southern Sudan and another 160,000 from Somalia. Further instability in Kenya could compromise food delivery and other services to these refugees.
Overdependence exposed
The crisis has exposed the rest of the region's "overreliance" on Kenya's transport infrastructure, especially Mombasa port, notes Abe Selassie, the International Monetary Fund representative in Uganda. Efforts to reduce this dependency have been planned for some years, but none has been completed. The Kenya pipeline, which currently carries fuel supplies to depots in western Kenya, was to be extended to Uganda to reduce costs and to avoid the need to transport fuel by road to Uganda, Rwanda, eastern DRC and Burundi. But the project is behind schedule.
Fuel and other imports to Uganda can be transported via Tanzania, but that road ends at Lake Victoria and the products then have to be shipped across the lake. Uganda has no ships in good operating order.
In January, Rwanda signed an agreement to obtain petroleum products from the main port of Dar es Salaam by rail. But the distances and poor state of Tanzanian roads and railways makes this expensive. Analysts argue that with improvements in its infrastructure, Tanzania could become a bigger player in the region's economy.
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