Tonie Mwangi
14 May 2008
opinion
Nairobi — SCENES OF PEOPLE RIOTING over food prices in developing economies have become common over the past few weeks.
People can hardly afford to purchase food commodities any more due to rising prices. Hunger is fast replacing Kibaki and Raila as the most commonly used words in our social vocabulary now.
At par with degree of worry about the internally displaced, is the concern over whether food will be available tomorrow. Steep food prices are now fuelling inflation and Kenya is no exception to the effects of it.
The situation is not yet very bleak, but make no mistake, danger lurks, and the threat it poses to our national security should not be underestimated.
SO HOW DID WE END UP IN THIS situation? Well, rising food prices is a phenomenon now being experienced globally, precipitated by, among other factors, increase in world population, climatic changes, increase in oil prices, diverting amounts of food surplus for the production of bio-diesel fuel, rising cost of inputs, and rising cost of production.
Domestically, our peculiar situation has been aggravated by destruction of food stocks in the post-election violence, high production costs, hoarding by farmers mainly for speculative reasons and for personal consumption, and also as a result of tardy payments by the National Cereal and Produce Board.
To put the situation into context, Kenya is experiencing food shortfall arising from a combination of macro and micro economic factors, and precipitated by the current political crisis.
However, it is possible to cushion the effect of the shortfall through this season's harvest if rainfall is consistent during this season, and, as a last resort, importation.
Our current grain stocks, which stand at around 15 million bags, are expected to last till August. Our grain production this season is expected to fall by 40 per cent, which will affect our consumption patterns.
These statistics though bleak, are not as grim as in other countries, so no cause for panic like in the cases of Zimbabwe and Haiti.
The impact of food inflation cuts across a wide range of sectors and its effect will reverberate in so many aspects.
It is well worth noting that in Kenya, 50.5 per cent of household budget is expended on food items. This, therefore, implies tinkering with our household expenditures by nipping and tucking and effectively curtailing other basic expenditures.
So we will end up with a distorted budget and occasioned by a reduction in purchasing power and increasing our misery.
A case in point would be, say a dilemma, whereby you are faced with a decision either to cut back on food or buy medicine.
Health of the population might also be affected; malnutrition especially for the younger population, is a real and present fear here.
Needless to mention, food poverty as a result of increased food prices, will be felt in both rural and urban areas.
The impact on the national economy cannot be gainsaid. More people will slip below the poverty line if the inflationary trend continues. Investment decisions will take a back seat as families grapple with the effects of inflation. This will in time delay development.
ALREADY THE GOVERNMENT HAS shown the way forward by subsidising fertiliser prices, providing ploughing services, providing seeds, helping through the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs, where inputs worth Sh6,000 are supplied through the vouchers system to cultivate one acre, and orphan crop programme, where seeds of traditional crops are distributed to diversify the food base.
However, more needs to be done and we should act in haste. Mitigative and emergency interventions will have to be put in place to alleviate the impact of food crisis.
Tonie Mwangi is a consultant with Beacons Consultants Limited and comments on social, political and economic issues.
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2008 The Nation. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
