Eliakim Hamunyela
16 May 2008
opinion
Windhoek — In 2004, the Namibian people formulated their "Policy Framework for Long Term National Development", in which strategies to turn Namibia into a prosperous and industrialised country are outlined. This is Vision 2030.
Based on the projections using medium variant, the Namibian population is expected to stand at 3.5 million by the year 2030 (Office of the President, 2004). As a desired state, 75% of the population is desirably expected to be living in urban areas (Office of the President, 2004). This means that Namibian urban areas, altogether, will house 2625 000 residents.
In 2001, there were 31 urban areas in Namibia; housing 603 612 residents in total; the rest of the population lived in rural areas (CBS, 2003). However, it should be noted that for the enumerated urban population, only about 87% was actually residing in the urban areas; and for enumerated rural population, 5% of them were not usual residents (CBS, 2003).
The increase in the population of an area is influenced by two factors: in situ birth and immigration. In situ birth means new members are added in the area through birth by individuals who are already residing in the area; whereas, immigration merely refers to the influx of individuals into the area from elsewhere for residence purposes.
Meanwhile, I will purposely ignore the local authorities proclaimed after the Namibia Population and Housing Census of 2001 to present two scenarios.
Scenarios
Scenario 1: Suppose, on average, the population of each of the 31 urban areas doubles by the year 2030, these urban areas will only house 1207 224 residents of the expected 2625000 residents. So, about 1417 776 people, supposedly urban population, shall be housed elsewhere - not in these 31 urban areas.
Suppose urban areas proclaimed after the Namibia Population and Housing Census of 2001, until year 2030 amount to 30, and the target of 75% urbanised Namibian population is reached, then each of these 30 urban areas will have to house about 47 259 residents on average.
Scenario 2: Suppose, the population of each of 31 urban areas (enumerated in 2001) does not double but instead triples by year 2030, on average. Then 1810 836 people will be housed in these 31 urban areas; and only 814164 will be housed in other urban areas (urban areas proclaimed after 2001 Census).
Again, suppose urban areas proclaimed after the Namibia Population and Housing Census of 2001, until year 2030, amount to 30 and the target of 75% urbanised Namibian population is reached then each of these 30 urban areas will have the population of about 27138 residents, on average.
So what? Way forward?
What is most important is the fact that when population projections are made, usually the actual populations only deviate marginally from the projected populations.
Unlike population projections, when economic growth projections are made the actual growths may deviate extremely from the projected growths due to volatility of the global market.
Inherently, economic growth seems to be too vulnerable to external forces when compared to population growth. Circumspectly, it is well noted that economic growth is not synonymous with economic development (Smith, 1994).
More equally, one has to be cautious not to talk about industrialisation without placing emphasis on appropriate technology.
The scenarios as presented are meant to give a general perspective of urban population in Namibia by the year 2030. The year 2030 is only 22 years away. As it is envisaged that Namibia should be an industrialised nation by 2030, local authorities need to reposition themselves to be able to cope with such number of residents.
Certainly, some urban areas will experience far more influx of people than others. Repositioning shall require that each local authority investigate its comparable advantage for investors as well as other economic activities.
This will require each local authority to do a careful scan to have a clearer picture of the economic activities which are likely to form its backbone. This also requires each local authority to assess how easily it will be to access the resources such as water, land and electricity, when the needs be.
There is no need for a local authority to spend more resources competing on the ground where it has marginal comparable advantage. The best is to maximise area of comparable advantage but ensuring economic diversification. It will be very disappointing to hear that an investor cannot come in because of a lack of serviced land; water can be an exception given the scarcity of water in Namibia; for electricity, the main stakeholders particularly NamPower and Central Government should ensure that investments in the country are not hindered by power shortage. This would require proactivism.
In most cases, urban areas portray a misperception of job opportunities; and as a result, there tends to be an influx of people to such areas, which consequently puts pressure on local authorities.
The worry is how many local authorities will be in a position to contain the impact from doubled or tripled population size? How many local authorities will be ready to cope with environmental issues arising from increased urban population?
How many local authorities will be prepared to curb extreme social evils (for example, crime and alcoholism) usually associated with high number of poor urban populations?
For any local authority to be ready for all these, it has to reposition itself; and the earlier the better. Also, what will be of great concern is the proportion of the population that will be staying in the informal settlements. This section of the population surely needs to be monitored.
Local authorities need to put up monitoring strategies to have better understanding of the rate at which this section of population is growing; and the rate at which intervention strategies reduce the growth of this section of the population.
Census, for example, is a very important source of information required by local authorities. So, local authorities really need to work closely with the Central Bureau of Statistics under the National Planning Commission, especially when mapping activities are carried out, as well as when data are collected.
Whilst not ignoring the fact that influx to urban areas can occur sporadically, it is extremely essential for every local authority to do its own population projections periodically; as it is done with the national population.
In cases where appropriate baseline data are not available, engaging with the Central Bureau of Statistics-NPC prior to the surveys and census could be useful.
Indeed data collection is an expensive exercise, so duplication of work should be avoided. So true and sad is the fact that collected data are not used to the maximum despite the amount of resources spent to collect such data. Closer partnership between agencies in Namibia is more needed today than before.
Conclusion
All in all, Local Authorities in Namibia should ensure that they are prepared for high number of residents, of which most will likely be residing in informal settlements. Programmes aimed at building affordable houses, for example the Build Together programme, should not be delayed or stagnated.
Management of waste and waste sites should be strengthened. Local authorities should start putting up contingency plans on how to utilise their available land.
All factors, economical, social, and environmental, should be well fed into contingency plans. Vibrancy of an urban area, in most cases, can only be achieved if proper planning is done while the urban area is still young and small.
Nevertheless, 75% of the urbanised population by year 2030 is just a target. What will happen if such target is not met, but the 3.5 million national population size is met? This will be dealt with in the next article: Regional Government, Rural areas and Vision 2030 in Perspective.
The author writes in his personal capacity
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