allAfrica.com: Namibia: Local Authorities And Vision 2030 (Page 1 of 2)

In 2004, the Namibian people formulated their "Policy Framework for Long Term National Development", in which strategies to turn Namibia into a prosperous and industrialised country are outlined. This is Vision 2030.

Based on the projections using medium variant, the Namibian population is expected to stand at 3.5 million by the year 2030 (Office of the President, 2004). As a desired state, 75% of the population is desirably expected to be living in urban areas (Office of the President, 2004). This means that Namibian urban areas, altogether, will house 2625 000 residents.

In 2001, there were 31 urban areas in Namibia; housing 603 612 residents in total; the rest of the population lived in rural areas (CBS, 2003). However, it should be noted that for the enumerated urban population, only about 87% was actually residing in the urban areas; and for enumerated rural population, 5% of them were not usual residents (CBS, 2003).

The increase in the population of an area is influenced by two factors: in situ birth and immigration. In situ birth means new members are added in the area through birth by individuals who are already residing in the area; whereas, immigration merely refers to the influx of individuals into the area from elsewhere for residence purposes.

Meanwhile, I will purposely ignore the local authorities proclaimed after the Namibia Population and Housing Census of 2001 to present two scenarios.

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Suppose, on average, the population of each of the 31 urban areas doubles by the year 2030, these urban areas will only house 1207 224 residents of the expected 2625000 residents. So, about 1417 776 people, supposedly urban population, shall be housed elsewhere - not in these 31 urban areas.

Suppose urban areas proclaimed after the Namibia Population and Housing Census of 2001, until year 2030 amount to 30, and the target of 75% urbanised Namibian population is reached, then each of these 30 urban areas will have to house about 47 259 residents on average.

Scenario 2: Suppose, the population of each of 31 urban areas (enumerated in 2001) does not double but instead triples by year 2030, on average. Then 1810 836 people will be housed in these 31 urban areas; and only 814164 will be housed in other urban areas (urban areas proclaimed after 2001 Census).

Again, suppose urban areas proclaimed after the Namibia Population and Housing Census of 2001, until year 2030, amount to 30 and the target of 75% urbanised Namibian population is reached then each of these 30 urban areas will have the population of about 27138 residents, on average.

So what? Way forward?

What is most important is the fact that when population projections are made, usually the actual populations only deviate marginally from the projected populations.

Unlike population projections, when economic growth projections are made the actual growths may deviate extremely from the projected growths due to volatility of the global market.

Inherently, economic growth seems to be too vulnerable to external forces when compared to population growth. Circumspectly, it is well noted that economic growth is not synonymous with economic development (Smith, 1994).

More equally, one has to be cautious not to talk about industrialisation without placing emphasis on appropriate technology.

The scenarios as presented are meant to give a general perspective of urban population in Namibia by the year 2030. The year 2030 is only 22 years away. As it is envisaged that Namibia should be an industrialised nation by 2030, local authorities need to reposition themselves to be able to cope with such number of residents.

Certainly, some urban areas will experience far more influx of people than others. Repositioning shall require that each local authority investigate its comparable advantage for investors as well as other economic activities.

This will require each local authority to do a careful scan to have a clearer picture of the economic activities which are likely to form its backbone. This also requires each local authority to assess how easily it will be to access the resources such as water, land and electricity, when the needs be.

There is no need for a local authority to spend more resources competing on the ground where it has marginal comparable advantage. The best is to maximise area of comparable advantage but ensuring economic diversification. It will be very disappointing to hear that an investor cannot come in because of a lack of serviced land; water can be an exception given the scarcity of water in Namibia; for electricity, the main stakeholders particularly NamPower and Central Government should ensure that investments in the country are not hindered by power shortage. This would require proactivism.

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