Financial Gazette (Harare)
Charles Rukuni
16 May 2008
analysis
Bulawayo — Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai has become a darling of the West, which insists that he must be in State House.
But a close examination of events leading to the historic elections in which he pipped President Robert Mugabe at the post, but failed to clinch an outright majority, shows that Tsvangirai is just a fall-back guy.
Not many had given him a chance to beat President Mugabe, particularly the media and the West. To them Tsvangirai was good as an opposition leader but not as head of State.
Only the people of Zimbabwe, branded for decades as cowards because they could not remove the "tyrant" responsible for their misery, thought otherwise. They voted for Tsvangirai to end their misery but they have learnt that it takes more than votes to remove President Mugabe.
As late as March 28, a day before the elections, not many would have anticipated that President Mugabe would lose because of the vast machinery that was at his disposal.
Some analysts even gave former Southern African Development Community (SADC) secretary Simba Makoni a better chance than Tsvangirai.
Makoni had ditched President Mugabe days before the close of nominations in February, to stand as an independent candidate.
Africa Confidential, a highly respected British fortnightly, said a day before the elections no SADC country backed Tsvangirai.
President Mugabe had the support of Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique and Namibia, while Makoni had the support of Botswana, South Africa and Zambia.
Even Britain and the United States, often accused by President Mugabe and his party of bankrolling the opposition, appeared to be behind Makoni.
But after the results of the parliamentary elections were out, everyone jumped onto Tsvangirai's bandwagon. But this was not because they supported him but simply because he had done the "impossible". He had beaten their arch-enemy, President Mugabe.
The hypocrisy of the West is not new. They have always backed the wrong horse in Zimbabwe but jump on to the victor after being beaten.
At independence, the West seemingly preferred Joshua Nkomo but President Mugabe won. The reason was simple. For the West, Nkomo was good for the economy. But Zimbabweans were tired of the war and they knew that only President Mugabe could end that war.
In 2000, the West was behind Morgan Tsvangirai, hoping that he would stop President Mugabe's "land grabbing". When Tsvangirai lost the 2002 presidential elections, the West ditched him and started secretly working from within ZANU-PF to get someone to replace President Mugabe. This was a painfully slow process.
The break up of the MDC in 2005 opened a new window for the West to back Arthur Mutambara. But when they realised he did not have support, they tried to get the two factions of the MDC to negotiate. That too flopped.
They went back to ZANU-PF, but failed to unseat President Mugabe at the 2006 annual conference and at the special congress last year. Makoni gave them another chance when he broke up from ZANU-PF in February.
Suddenly, all the complaints that had been raised by the MDC about the uneven playing field were trashed aside because Zimbabwe now had a "credible" and serious challenger to President Mugabe.
But once again the people prevailed. They voted for Tsvangirai because they believed he could end their woes. Makoni, they felt, was there to protect business interests of his associates. Besides, most thought he was a ZANU-PF ruse deployed to spoil things for Tsvangirai.
The West immediately ditched Makoni and started backing Tsvangirai. But what is not clear is whether they are really behind him or not, or whether they just need him to get rid of President Mugabe.
For the West, Makoni was good for business. The West is worried about Tsvangirai's constituency, the workers, as well as his capacity to rule.
Besides, the MDC is a fragile coalition representing groups with conflicting interests. Even some of Tsvangirai's close associates secretly admit that the MDC does not have the capacity to rule.
"The party is rather thin. Tsvangirai knows this, that is why he is focusing on a government of national unity," a close associate said. "The issue at the moment is that he is the only one with the grassroots support to unseat (President) Mugabe."
Political scientist John Makumbe, however, saw things differently. He said the West had never been behind Makoni but was all along supporting the MDC.
"Makoni was locally sponsored to try to block Tsvangirai because of his links with labour. Business and the elite are always against organisations that cater for workers and the poor," he said.
While some leaders in ZANU-PF are reported to be ready to accept the MDC victory, a very determined minority has decided to fight on because it wants to capitalise on the MDC's weaknesses, conflicting interests within the party leadership, its inexperience, and the fact that the party leaders seem to panic quite easily. But right now that is not its main worry -- survival of the party is.
War veteran and former Bulawayo provincial chairman, George Mlala, said: "The elections are not just about (President) Mugabe or Tsvangirai, they are about the future of ZANU-PF and of the MDC. If the MDC wins that's the end of ZANU-PF."
Events in Zambia, Malawi and Kenya show that parties that led those countries to independence crumpled after being kicked out by demands for change. The United National Independence Party of Zambia, the Malawi Congress Party of Malawi and the Kenya African National Union, are gone.
ZANU-PF could go the same way if President Mugabe is booted out.
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