20 May 2008
Cape Town — There is a growing risk of a military coup in Zimbabwe to prevent opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai from taking power, says the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG).
In a new report released on Wednesday, the ICG calls for African-led mediation efforts to avert the danger by negotiating the establishment of a government of national unity under Tsvangirai's leadership. At the same time, it adds, the mediators should work with Zimbabwe's political parties to define the requirements for a credible run-off election if the attempts to form a unity government fail.
"If Mugabe manages to cling to the presidency through political repression and manipulation," the group says, "he will face a hostile parliament, growing public discontent, mounting international pressure and increased isolation.
"The consequences of his staying in office would be catastrophic, not least that the economic decline would intensify, with more Zimbabweans fleeing across borders, while inflation, unemployment and the resulting massive suffering increase."
However, it continues, "a negotiated settlement could establish a Tsvangirai-led transitional government with substantial participation by Zanu PF stalwarts to implement agreed-upon constitutional reforms and hold free and fair elections under an agreed timeframe... As with negotiations for a transitional government... mediation would need to address the modalities for ensuring military loyalty to a new civilian government. Failure to do so would risk a Tsvangirai victory leading to a military coup or martial law and the security services splitting along factional lines."
The ICG report also makes a number of new claims about the aftermath of the March 29 elections. Among them:
Among other observations in the report:
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Why do people continue to refer to the MDC as 'the opposition'? They won the parliamentary vote. The 'ruling party' ZanuPF has no mandate to rule any longer. A military coup appears to be what took place immediately after they lost the election - military structures / militias acting unilaterally, no political entity is acknowledging responsibility for the organised violence, so what else can you call it?
I agree with you, technically there is a coup right now in Zimbabwe if people do not see this. What else can you call it if military leaders are holding the country hostage? Sad that those involved do not see that the end result is always the same. YOu can run but you cannot hide. Time is up!
Phiri,
Rumours are what ZANU PF thrieve on. Zimbabwe has been flooded by many uncertainities that the truth can not be easily deciphered by the ordinary man. What ZANU PF has so successfully done is to place Zimbabwe under a blanket of suspicion and no straight answers. You CIO, war mongers can no longer fool us by your ill concieved comments and slants on the truth by blaming the western world. Your lies are in the open and you will not get away with it. Remember..."usa kanganwe kuti pasipanudya".
Phiri:
355,000% inflation! 80% unemployment! 25% of the entire population of Zimbabwe have fled as economic refugees from the failed policies of ZANU-PF/Mugabe!
It matters not what the Herald says or what the ZANU-PF propaganda is! It matters not even what the international community says! The FACTS say that ZANU-PF/Mugabe have FAILED to bring even economic sustenance (NOT even prosperity!) to the people of Zimbabwe under the so called slogan of "Africa for Africans"!
As a matter of fact! The only way ZANU-PF/Mugabe can stay in power "IS" by way of a coup! The groundwork has already been laid: There is no free press, the people that disagree w/ the government are arrested (they may be released at a later date - but they are arrested, their hearings before the court continued for "technical" reasons and THEN they are released)!
Thousands of MDC supporters - teachers, doctors, ELECTION OBSERVERS, etc have been attacked or intimidated by the so-called "war veterans" who were not even born during "the war"! It is convenient to ZANU-PF (isn't it?) that those who voted against them are no longer "within their voting districts" and will most likely not be allowed to vote in the "run-off"! it is VERY convenient that those districts that voted against ZANU-PF/Mugabe and elected MDC Senators will "miraculously" turn around and elect Mugabe for another term in the run-off....... What is the statistical probability of that?
It is ironic that the Army, who should be looking to defend the borders of a "free" Zimbabwe, are otherwise busy within Zimbabwe, enforcing the dictates of the ZANU-PF's Politburo (I'm sorry, do the Russians still have a "Politburo"?).
It is still more strange that ZANU-PF rallies for the "run-off" were anounced before the election results........ Why is it that ZANU-PF/Mugabe was preparing for a run-off before the election results were known? Strange, isn't it? If ZANU-PF didn't know they had already lost the general election before the results were announced, there would be no reason for the "Party" to announce it was ready for a run-off........
Yet more strangely still,, that in a "free" country like Zimbabwe, the ZANU-PF can hold rallies while the MDC cannot due to "not having permits" or due to "safety concerns" or because they might "insult the President". I'm not sure what you consider the concept of "freedom" to be, but where I come from, we are free to insult ANYONE! Including the President! We do not "fear" incendiary public speech, but embrace it (as repugnant as it might be to us) as an exercise of "liberty" - that is part of what "Freedom" is about! That was something your "war of liberation" was about, wasn't it?
I'm amazed that I haven't read about ZANU-PF supporters being beaten by mobs and denied medical treatment and then being arrested by the police or CIO...... Even in the "Herald"! Even "IF" MDC supporters have engaged in violence, have any of the people that beat or tortured MDC supporters been arrested? I have yet to hear the news - EVEN in the Herald!
It is strange isn't it, that there are so many Zimbabweans in South Africa working for wages that are beneath their education/qualifications - and then suddenly(!) The South Africans no longer want them there and resort to attacking their African brothers? Didn't you previously post about the "solidarity" of native African "blacks" against the colonial "white" oppressors? How does it make you feel that the "liberated brothers" of South Africa are attacking your Zimbabwean "brothers". What does this say about how the rest of Africa views ZANU-PF/Mugabe and the results of their policies.
Surely, the "WEST" (WHITES) cannot be manipulating the ANC/South African People are they? After fighting for freedom from "white" oppression, they suddenly turn against their "comrades"? This is ironic on so many levels..... ZANU-PF/Mugabe and the results of their rule over Zimbabwe have become a blight on the entire continent! Even if Mbeki doesn't recognize it, the "townships" in South Africa surely do.
If Zimbabwe was merely a pawn in the game of "white" Western Countries - then shouldn't their "revolutionary brothers" in South Africa welcome them with open arms considering they both fought against the "imperialist white aggressors"? Why is it that Zimbabweans are not even welcomed by their revolutionary comrades in South Africa?
Whatever drivel you post about Zimbabweans and the current turmoil in your "beloved" country is just that - drivel! You are a stooge of the ZANU-PF/Mugabe and NOTHING you can say here will change the FACT that ZANU-PF/Mugabe have literally enslaved your "brothers" to a standard of living and economic opportunity that pales in comparison to that which they had under the racist Ian Smith's Rhodesia! Yes, Zimbabweans are "free" from "white" oppression yet their stomachs are empty, their children no longer educated, the sick dying in hospitals for lack of medicine, the people beaten/raped/killed for voicing their dissatisfaction with the current government. What kind of freedom is that?
I guess, from your point of view, oppression is OK when it is "blacks" who are doing the oppressing, as opposed to "whites"........
What does that say about Africa as a whole? What does it say when your "revolutionary comrades" in South Africa no longer want your tired, poor, huddled masses? Where is the Statue of Liberty in Pretoria?
You continually blame the "west" and the "whites" for the failures of "Africans" who have been ruling Zimbabwe for the past 28 years! What is the statute of limitations on blaming "white" people? If Africa is for Africans governed by Africans - then shouldn't 28 years of ZANU-PF/Mugabe rule speak for themselves? I think it is, and the verdict is not flattering for people like yourself..........
A coup already took place! However, the article is helpful in that it indicates who the hard-liners in Zanu PF are. This way it will be easier for Zanu PF moderates, The MDC, Mavambo, Civic Society and individual Zimbabweans interested in national re-construction to isolate these elements.
More intelligence on the hardliners and their supporters...people who are driven by nothing other than self-interest, should be gathered and all the pro-peace and pro-democracy Zimbabweans should use this information to craft a strategy and the attendant tactics to rid the nation of this rot.
With Mavambo (Simba) already saying it would throw its weight behind MDC-T it would appear that the authors of this article have their facts right. I have followed most of their articles before and their information is often correct. We do not need them to predict the future for us rather to provide us information the basis of which is crucial for our own analysis, decision making ang decision taking. We are the nation of Zimbabwe and we need to own our problem, the solutions we seek to achieve and the outcome of the choices we make.
So if viewed as a Political analysis information tool I would say the article serves its purpose. Who wants to be spoon fed with solutions anyway? In any case we are the country experts so we need to fine-tune the information before us and contextualise it...take what we see as hekpful and put it to good use and Ifind there is a lot in this article that could be put to good use if we put our minds to it.
Dear Phiri,
You are quite right to question motives involved… for example the motives of the UK in all of this. It is not in the UK or any western government’s interest to see Zimbabwe collapse into chaos as it would destabilize regions around it and would mean that the west has to send Africa even more money and aid to sort itself out. As a UK citizen and a tax payer I am sick of giving giving giving just to be labeled as a colonialist, especially when we have little to gain from the relationship. No, Zimbabwe is not the worst country in Africa but why strive to be the worst when you can be (and have been) the best. You should be shining as an example to all and not comforting yourselves in the fact that you have killed less people than other failing states…
Regards,
A Weary Friend
A Weary Friend You seem to overlook the fact that the Brits invaded South Africa, sold it's diamonds from London at a fat profit and kept the price of gold at a ridiculous US30 per ounce until there was more gold in Fort Knox then left in Africa. Call it pay back time
See all comments (69).
This article like most article on Zimbabwe are full of allegations and quite frankly propaganda stories. Growing risk of a coup in Zimbabwe!! Total rubbish. The propaganda machine is now very active and being supported by the UK and other anglo white groups in South Africa. To be clear, even the International Crisis Group (ICG) could not predict the recent election outcome in Zimbabwe. The ICG group is now well know for predicting the lies that govern this phony organisation. They have not predicted anything in the continent of Africa that has come to pass.
They are so many rumors on Zimbabwe that one wonders what is the motive behind. Even the oppossition party of Morgan Tsvangirai seem to glory in these false rumors hoping things will work their way. They love rumors more than ruling the country. Morgan Tsvangirai is headed for trouble in Zimbabwe!
Is Zimbabwe the worst country in Africa? I real do not think so...at least it has not reached that level. To keep things in perspective, the death toll of the opposition party in Kenya was over a 100 fold then what the 23 reported by the opposition. And also the ruling party has lost it's own people. ICG is a useless group right now, it only serves it's western allies.