Lucas Barasa
15 June 2008
Nairobi — The results of Kilgoris and Ainamoi parliamentary by-elections have sent a warning to the Orange Democratic Movement that it might be losing its grip on Rift Valley Province.
The larger Maa region and South Rift had been regarded ODM strongholds after the party's performance in last year's General Election when almost all the residents voted for ODM parliamentary candidates and presidential candidate Raila Odinga in last year's General Election.
However, dissent over the choice of ODM parliamentary candidates in the Kilgoris and Ainamoi by-elections and unhappiness over the sharing out of cabinet slots in the grand coalition government seem to weaken party's support in the vast province. Rift Valley commands the highest number of registered voters in the country at nearly three million.
Its affiliate
ODM fielded Mr Benjamin Langat for the Ainamoi parliamentary seat which was left vacant following the death of his brother, Mr David Too, four months ago.
The ODM choice was opposed by some of the party supporters, and candidates who lost in the nominations vowed to rally behind the UDM candidate, Dr Paul Chepkwony for the seat.
Although PNU did not contest the seat, it supported a candidate who ran on its affiliate, Kanu.
It had been perceived that whoever bags the ODM ticket in the nomination would easily win the by-election, but Mr Langat was given a run for his money by Dr Chepkwony.
In the end, Mr Langat, a former accountant with Kenya Tea Development Authority, carried the day with a margin of less than 2,000 votes, having garnered 17,532 votes against Dr Chepkwony's 15,689.
In last year's polls, Mr Too, garnered 28,431 votes against Dr Chepkwony's 10,626.
ODM kingpins
The outcome caught political analysts by surprise, especially following the high-profile campaign for Mr Langat by Rift Valley ODM kingpins led by Agriculture Minister William Ruto.
Mr Langat also enjoyed the support of non-Kipsigis community members who work in tea farms in Ainamoi and who offered swing votes.
Ensuring he failed
Dr Chepkwony's campaign team, however, was mainly supported by local leaders who felt ODM was imposing Mr Langat on them and wanted to teach the party a lesson by ensuring he failed.
Dr Chepkwony also enjoyed support from disgruntled MPs from the South Rift who felt the region had been short-changed in allocation of cabinet positions during the formation of the grand coalition government.
Another party
The disgruntled MPs had vowed to join another party, possibly UDM which has its roots in the province and already has one MP - Sports Minister Hellen Sambili.
The group of MPs has been a thorn in the flesh in ODM and gone against the party leaders by championing the creation of a grand opposition in Parliament. Mr Odinga is among key ODM leaders opposed to this opposition, saying it will weaken his position as Prime Minister.
According to the National Accord signed between President Kibaki and Mr Odinga, the prime minister must be appointed from the party with the majority in Parliament.
Great lesson
However, Kanu's high-tech campaigns, in an effort to revamp the party ahead of the 2012 elections, did not bear the desired fruit for its candidate.
Although he lost, Dr Chepkwony's performance is a great lesson to ODM which now has to find a way to mend fences with South Rift residents, strengthen its support base and ensure it recaptures the seats now left vacant following the deaths of Roads Minister Kipkalya Kones and Home Affairs assistant minister Lorna Laboso who died in a plane crash in Narok on Tuesday. Mr Kones and Ms Laboso represented the neighbouring constituencies in South Rift of Bomet and Sotik, respectively.
The blunders
And if ODM was surprised by its diminishing support in Ainamoi, it would be difficult for it to come to terms with the blunders that made it lose the Kilgoris seat.
The party issued a direct nomination to Mr Jonah Ng'eno to fly its flag, which angered a section of the residents who felt betrayed simply because Mr Ng'eno did not hail from the indigenous Maasai community.
The by-election in Kilgoris shows ODM, and indeed the grand coalition government, that it has to heal ethnic divisions pitting the Kipsigis against the Maasai.
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