Macharia Gaitho
15 June 2008
Nairobi — The by-elections in five parliamentary constituencies that were billed as a major showdown between the rival groupings in the Grand Coalition government could rightly be said to have petered out into a lame draw, or at least an outcome in which both sides can claim to have emerged triumphant.
ODM could claim victory by winning three-Ainamoi, Emuhaya and Wajir North - of the five seats at stake.
PNU could claim that it was the winner because the two seats it won, Embakasi and Kilgoris, amount to gains on the total number of seats with which it emerged from the 2007 parliamentary elections.
In terms of the fear that the by-elections would re-ignite political hostilities that might tear the fragile coalition apart, the outcome was probably the best that could be hoped for insofar as both parties came out satisfied.
ODM regained two of the three seats that became vacant after the murders of its two MPs - for Ainamoi and Embakasi - and the elevation of Mr Kenneth Marende (former Emuhaya MP) to Speaker of the National Assembly.
But while ODM lost Embakasi to PNU, that was compensated for with the capture Wajir North which had remained vacant after the General Election following an unprecedented tie.
The comeback
There were two other seats that had registered no results following the General Election, Kilgoris which PNU captured to mark the comeback of former Immigration minister Gideon Konchellah; and Kamukunji which was not listed for a by-election because of a pending court case.
Of the five by-elections contested on Wednesday, Kilgoris was obviously the most bitterly fought and the one that captured the most national attention.
If the entire General Election last year had been fought as an ethnic war, that trait of Kenyan politics was best illustrated in Kilgoris where the parliamentary race became a battle between the Kalenjin and Maasai peoples, who otherwise in the larger picture of Rift Valley politics, were on the same side largely supporting ODM.
Violent mobs
The situation became so bad that on voting day ballot counting had to be abandoned after violent mobs disrupted the exercise. Any hopes that the counting could be resumed once security had been restored were dashed a few weeks later when the hall where the ballot material was stored was burnt to the ground in an arson attack.
The contenders in 2007 were Col (Rtd) Konchellah for PNU, Mr Julius Sunkuli for Kanu, Mr Peter Sapalan for ODM, Mr Simon ole Maasi for OMK Kenya and Mr Johanah Ng'eno for Kenya African Democratic Development Union (Kaddu) and Mr Samuel Tunai for United Democratic Movement.
Others candidates were Mr Emmanuel Tasur for Kenda, Mr Francis Ng'eno for Peoples Democratic Party, Mr John Naiguran of Narc, and Mr Daniel Kiptunen of National Democratic Alliance, Mr Michael Kipteng of Kenya Political Caucus Party and Mr Salim Kipirash of Chama cha Mwananchi.
Immigrant community
From the onset it became a Kipsigis-Maasai battle, with the vote of the immigrant community rallying around Mr Jonah Ngeno on the minor party Kaddu ticket, while the indigenous Maasai vote was divided among some of the other main candidates, Col Konchellah of PNU, Mr Sunkuli of Kanu, Mr Sapalan of ODM and Mr Maasi of ODM-K.
The split Maasai vote seemed set to hand Mr Ng'eno a clear victory, until the violence broke out and the subsequent failure to conclude the counting and declare a result.
It was against such a background that the by-elections were called, and the ethnic rivalry immediately came to the fore.
Tensions were exacerbated when Kipsigis MPs from the neighbouring Kericho and Bomett districts led by Mr Isaac Ruto and Mr Franklin Bett took a keen interest in the Kilgoris by-election and determined to front one of their own.
They identified Mr Ng'eno, the Kaddu candidate last year, as the best prospect, and started promoting him for the ODM nomination
The party, already reeling under pressure from the same Kipsigis politicians on issues such as their exclusion from the coalition cabinet and the planned eviction of illegal settlers from Mau Forest, decided to go along and even dispensed with the usual nomination procedures.
The ODM nomination of Mr Ng'eno served as a red flag to the Maasai in Kilgoris, who decided that they must retain the seat at all costs.
Their strategy was to unite behind one candidate; they eventually settled for Col Konchellah, a significant development because even his old rival Mr Sunkuli agreed to give way.
From then on the PNU campaign minced no words in depicting the Kilgoris by-election as a war to secure the Maasai birthright.
At campaign rallies and other meetings across the constituency attended by personalities such as Internal Security minister George Saitoti, who is from Kajiado district, and former National Assembly Speaker Francis ole Kaparo, war drums were openly sounded to no repudiation from the PNU high command.
Principal message
Even the ODM MP for Kajiado Central Joseph Nkaisserry, an assistant minister for Defence, broke with his party line to back the Konchellah campaign, which had the principal message that victory for the Kipsigis candidate would not be countenanced, and in the event of such an eventuality would be countered, by bloodshed if need be.
Kilgoris turned out to be one of the most ethnically charged parliamentary duels witnessed in Kenya, and a major security operation had to be mounted to avert violence.
It was no surprise, ultimately, that the Maasai rallied round a single candidate, ensuring victory for Col Konchellah.
It was also clear from the beginning that ODM had made a tactical blunder by trying to appease rebellious Kipsigis politicians from across the border through the direct nomination awarded to Mr Ng'eno.
More fundamental, however, might be what the tone of the campaign heralds. PNU has been claiming the moral high ground on the issue of ethnic and political violence in the Rift Valley following the disputed presidential election.
Future statements about the rights of Kenyans to own land anywhere and make political choices freely will not wash when viewed against the openly ethnic campaign, complete with threats to violence targeting an immigrant community, the party waged in Kilgoris.
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