Chantelle Benjamin
27 June 2008
Johannesburg — AIRBUS believes demand for new aircraft will continue to grow despite fuel price increases, with air traffic doubling worldwide in the next 15 years.
Airbus director of technical marketing, John Blachfield, speaking in France this week, said the fact that the price of fuel had doubled in the past 18 months and quadrupled in the past few years had had little effect on people's demand for flying.
"Over the next 20 years, more than 24000 new aircraft will be needed worldwide, half of which will involve the replacement of old aircraft. The remainder will come from traffic growth," he said .
"We have seen air traffic double every 15 years and there is every indication that it will double again in the next 15."
Last year was a record year for Airbus, which received orders for 1458 aircraft, and which outpaced Boeing with 453 aircraft delivered against Boeing's 441.
Airbus has a 6%-7% production backlog, which amounts to about 3500 outstanding airplanes.
"We cannot supply enough aircraft," he said. "This is an issue we have to deal with by upping our production."
He attributes demand to the efficiency of air travel and the creation of megacities with more than 10-million inhabitants. At present 77% of long-range passengers are travelling to and from only 32 of these megacities -- including Johannesburg.
Already Airbus is looking to increase production of the A320 by 7% a month by 2010 and the A330 and A340, which are being considered by South African Airways, from 7% to 10% a month.
"It has to be a gradual process because these aircraft have a large skills component, so there are some things that cannot be rushed."
Blachfield said that while passenger and freight demand was increasing, Airbus was constantly under pressure from airlines to create more fuel- efficient aircraft.
"Companies have approa-ched us to make seats lighter and are investing in flight path control equipment," he said.
"Considering that 40% of an airline's cost is fuel, the importance of an economic aircraft is invaluable.
"Two to three years ago the cost of new equipment was not worth it against the cost of fuel but this is no longer the case."
Air France recently asked Airbus to consider extending the body of the fuel-efficient A380, which already has the ability to carry 525 passengers and is the world's largest airliner, to make long-haul flights more efficient both in economical and environmental terms.
This request is unlikely to become a reality in the near future while Airbus struggles to meet demand for the 196 A380s on order.
Blachfield said the aircraft burnt nearly 20% less than the Boeing 747, working out at about 3l of fuel per passenger per 100km. This is compared with 6,5l in a European car and 9,6l in a US car.
Airbus's biggest growth areas, not surprisingly, have been India and China, who are ordering smaller carriers, as well as the Middle East where government-led programmes to develop the region have led to a big growth in demand for airplanes in the region.
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