allAfrica.com: Zimbabwe: Political Crisis Deepens (Page 1 of 2)

ZIMBABWE'S political crisis scaled new heights this week with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai withdrawing from today's presidential run-off -- a move analysts said was politically understandable, but legally wrong.

Tsvangirai announced on Sunday that he would no longer take part in the election because of escalating state-sponsored political violence that has claimed over 80 lives, displaced 200 000 people and left over 10 000 injured. He complained that he was not allowed to campaign freely with access to the people and to the media blocked.

The opposition's decision saw the international community -- including Africa -- mobilising against President Robert Mugabe's government and called for the postponement of the poll.

Sadc, the African Union, the United Nations and other international bodies have called for Zimbabwe to end the violence and seek a negotiated settlement to the escalating crisis.

But the government this week insisted the run-off would go ahead and talks could follow.

Politicians and political analysts said the negotiations, however, would clearly be difficult, with Tsvangirai unlikely to accept a deal that does not grant him real power.

As for Mugabe, sharing power with a rival he has branded as a stooge of former colonial power Britain would be a bitter pill to swallow.

The analysts, however, said it was a fait accompli that the poll would go ahead and its outcome would benefit both Mugabe and Tsvangirai.

They argued that Mugabe was sure of victory after his "military-like" campaign and wanted to go into the post-election negotiations from a position of strength.

Mugabe, the analysts said, was aware that if elected he would not be able to govern the country effectively without the MDC, which now controls the House of Assembly after winning a combined 109 seats against 97 garnered by Mugabe's Zanu PF.

The octogenarian leader, the analysts said, would need the MDC in his government to end Zimbabwe's international isolation.

On Tsvangirai's side, the analysts said the polls would reveal that Mugabe had turned Zimbabwe into a captive state and will lead the international community into increasing pressure on the 84-year-old former guerilla leader.

The analysts said if the electorate fails to turn out in their hundreds of thousands, the world would dismiss the poll it as hollow and a farce.

Lovemore Madhuku, chairperson of the National Constitutional Assembly, said Tsvangirai was right in withdrawing from the run-off, but was legally bound to participate.

He said Tsvangirai's pull out was a political "embarrassment" for Mugabe because he needed legitimacy to rule Zimbabwe.

"Mugabe knows that even if the run-off takes place he will not get the legitimacy he desperately wanted," Madhuku said.

He said the strict legal position was that the candidature for the run-off was not a voluntary exercise.

"Tsvangirai gave his consent when he contested the first election," Madhuku said. "The run-off is an irreversible process."

Political scientist and independent MP-elect for Tsholotsho North, Jonathan Moyo, said while Tsvangirai had denied Mugabe the legitimacy he craved, he described the MDC decision to pull out of the run-off as a "wrong move at the wrong time".

Moyo, a former Mugabe spin-doctor, said Tsvangirai was gambling on his political career.

"It is the most unwise decision that they have ever made," Moyo told an online radio station. "How can they withdraw five days before the election and yet people were being beaten and killed all along?"

He said it was unfortunate that Tsvangirai had made the decision when all along he had been saying "no amount of violence or intimidation would stop the opposition from romping to victory".

"It's a wrong move at the wrong time," Moyo said. "There is a danger that by pulling out of the election, Tsvangirai has dug a political grave for himself. It will compound Mugabe's legitimacy crisis, but may wreck Tsvangirai's career."

Moyo said the move exposed Tsvangirai's weaknesses and inconsistencies.

"It reflects badly on Tsvangirai. As recently as last week, he said he didn't need to campaign because voters had already made up their minds. He said no amount of violence would make Mugabe win. And last Saturday, he said he was contesting the run-off, which he claimed no one could cancel."

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