Kenya: AIG Revises Economic Growth Projections
Business Daily (Nairobi)
3 July 2008
Posted to the web 3 July 2008
AIG has revised its economic growth projections for Kenya upwards from 3 per cent to 4.3 per cent, to reflect the improved political climate and recovery in key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure development and tourism.
"With the signing of the peace accord that ushered in a grand coalition government, we have witnessed a reversal that would give the much needed impetus to economic growth", AIG investments Vice president and Senior Investment Manager, Mr Peter Wachira said.
AIG analysts observed that the risk now centres on the ability of the coalition government to hold together and implement the broad economic blue print, dubbed Vision 2030, which is expected to yield a globally competitive, fast growing and diversified economy.
Fund Managers at AIG also estimate that inflation would continue to be a dominant theme globally posing great challenges to central banks given the increasing commodity and crude oil prices.
"The outlook for inflation in Sub Saharan Africa remains bleak in an environment of sustained increases in international crude oil and food prices. Worse still here in Kenya, is the recent announcement by the government of a 21 per cent increase in energy tariffs occasioned by supply disruptions and sustained demand" Mr Wachira said.
AIG analysts predict that interest rates will experience upward pressure, fuelled by a financing challenge to the huge budget deficit of Sh127bn. The current budget deficit is the largest in Kenya's history.