Nicola Mawson
4 July 2008
Johannesburg — ELECTRICITY generation has stagnated in the year to May, sparking concern that SA may yet again face load-shedding, placing further pressure on an already constrained economy.
In addition, use has not decreased substantially, despite the government's entreaties to shed at least 10% of use or face further load-shedding.
Doret Els, an economist with the Efficient Group, said electricity production was stagnant so far this year, which increased the risk that, should anything fail, SA could be back to load-shedding.
Load-shedding during January had a detrimental effect on economic growth. Els said the economy grew at only 2,1% in the quarter and mining contracted 22,1% due to the five shut days and other limitations on supply.
Statistics SA said in its report for electricity generated and available for consumption for May that total production of electricity fell 2,1% compared with May last year, while the estimated production of electricity during the three months to this May was down 1,1%. Els said, year on year, imports of electricity were down 15,3% and electricity available for consumption was down 2,5% compared with May last year.
However, she said that figures between January and May showing a cumulative effect gave a clearer indication of production and consumption.
Generation of electricity between January and May was up "only" 0,1%, indicating that electricity generation was stagnant, she said. "Even at the very slow growth of 2,1% in quarter one, this is not sufficient."
Consumption in the year to May was down 0,9%, which was not enough of a reduction as there was insufficient power being generated in the first place.
Last month, Eskom warned that it had a shortage of reserves to meet any increase in electricity demand . "The reserve margin challenge is a deep, serious and material challenge, and it will take time to resolve," CEO Jacob Maroga said.
"We are still in a situation of inadequate reserve margins. Until we have adequate margins, the probability of load- shedding remains high."
Statistics SA said, year on year, consumption in May was down 2,5% while electricity consumed for the three months to end of May decreased by 1,5% compared with the same three months a year ago.
"In the first five months of 2008, consumption of electricity was affected by numerous factors that led to reduced levels of consumption, such as load-shedding and a continuous drive from Eskom in encouraging users to save on electricity consumption," Stats SA said.
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