6 July 2008
editorial
Nairobi — The International Monetary Fund's review mission under Mr Thomas Krueger has just given its verdict on the Kenya economy following Article IV consultations, basically an audit of the macroeconomics of the country.
And contrary to opinions of most Kenyans who allow politics to sap their energies and optimism, sectors of the economy are recovering.
Put in a most basic way, hard-working Kenyans are picking up the pieces after the disruption of the first quarter.
The mission said the economy, after sliding in the first three months of the year, should grow by 4 per cent - admittedly much worse than the 7 of last year, but a remarkable feat in view of recent history.
The IMF people held discussions with Prime Minister Raila Odinga, besieged Finance Minister Amos Kimunya, Central Bank Governor Njuguna Ndung'u plus a number of senior officials, businesspeople, donors and representatives of labour unions and civil society.
Theirs was an objective view of the issues, devoid of the political biases of the day.
"The economy is regaining its footing. While a full recovery in some sectors is likely to take time, including tourism, the economy as a whole is already rebounding," said the IMF.
A similar verdict came from the local shop of fund manager AIG, which forecast 2008 growth at 4.5 per cent.
The point is that kenyans have done as much as they can to ignore the political distractions. But that situation may not prevail in the long run.
Few investors are likely to risk their capital in a country whose future appears hinged on the whims of an unstable coalition.
That means, inasmuch as politicians would want to rock the political boat - either through suspicious disposal of public property or spreading self-serving propaganda about the same - they have to care for their constituents.
If they think their charges are poor, let them wait for five years of inertia to pass. The depreciation of the shilling against hard currencies in the last few days in an inflation-buffeted, import-oriented economy, is a good pointer to the direction we may be headed.
As a matter of urgency, leaders should resolve the stalemate surrounding Mr Kimunya and the Grand Regency. The markets hate uncertainty.
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