Lagos — The race to the Abeokuta government house was a very rough one for Governor Gbenga Daniel. He pitched his tent with the PDP to vie for the governorship election in 2003. PDP, a party largely believed then to be a meeting point for the Yoruba political rejects, was never given a chance of winning the state, talk less of others in the South-west zone. Prior to 2003, the entire zone was controlled by the Alliance for Democracy (AD).

Virtually all the Yoruba elite then were members of the Alliance for Democracy, the mainstream political wing of the Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere. The dominance of the AD could not be denied by anybody in Ogun State. But Daniel, backed by the former president, Olusegun Obasanjo and with the support of Martins Kuye, were able to dislodge the AD from power.

Though different theories have been advanced about the events leading to his eventual emergence as governor, Daniel moved in to dismantle all AD structures in the state. Unfortunately, the very PDP structures that Daniel set up in 2003 after he came to power are now threatening to strangulate him. The governor single-handedly gave the SSG's slot to Martins-Kuye as a gift, which led to appointment of Sharafadeen Ishola as the state's SSG between 2003 and 2007.

In spite of the fact that Ishola is from Ogun Central, his appointment was seen by the Egbas as an imposition. This was the first battle the governor had to contend with in 2003. After the situation was brought under control, the governor swung into action and everything appeared rosy.

In fact in 2005, to demonstrate the harmony in Ogun State, a meeting was held in Ago-Iwoye where all the PDP leaders agreed that the Ijebu Remo division in Ogun East Senatorial district should be allowed to go for the second term. Among PDP leaders present at the meeting were the governor, Kuye and Senator Ibikunle Amosun (who later decamped to the All Nigeria Peoples Party and contested the 2007 gubernatorial election against Daniel), among others. Although nothing was cast in stone, the meeting allegedly agreed to subsequently allow the Yewas give the governorship a shot in 2011.

But not too long after the agreement was reached, everything was cast aside as self interests vied to take control of the state. For instance, Senator Amosun made known his intention to vie for the governorship election under the PDP platform. Nobody really understood the philosophy behind his aspiration. Later, news had it that Amosun was being backed by Obasanjo. Then it became crystal clear that Obasanjo was not in support of Daniel's re-election bid. The governor's re-election was being threatened by a report from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) portraying him as one of the corrupt governors. But to pacify the former president and manage the situation, Daniel mooted the idea of supporting the candidacy of Mrs Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, who was then his Commissioner for Health to contest for the Ogun Central Senatorial district poll.

It was a good political strategy that indeed worked for Daniel to douse the forces against him at the time, albeit temporarily. In spite of the deft moves, the pre-2007 election was not devoid of violent attacks between supporters of Daniel and Amosun.

Eventually, Amosun decamped to ANPP to actualise his political ambition. Yet, his decampment did not stem the violence. At some point, Amosun's supporters were alleged to have attacked the convoy of the governor in Ijemo, Abeokuta.

In spite of the confrontations and barriers placed in his way, Daniel emerged winner. But his victory notwithstanding, the battle for Ogun's political structures had just begun. During his first state executive meeting after he was sworn-in for the second term, the governor made it clear that it was the turn of Ogun West Senatorial district to produce the next state governor. His theory was based on the practical evidence that out of the three districts that make up the state, only Ogun West is yet to produce a governor. Ogun East has produced two governors - late Chief Bisi Onabanjo (1979-83) and Daniel (2003 till date); while Ogun Central (Egbaland) had ruled twice through Chief Olusegun Osoba (first between 1992-93 and 1999-2003).

In fact, Daniel is believed to already have a candidate. He is Gboyega Isiaka who is Group Managing Director of Gateway Holdings.

The statement marked the genesis of the on-going protracted battle in the state. Some interpreted the governor's pronouncement as arrogant and plethoric. Others however, saw the impeachment of Titi Oseni as an avenue to show the governor that he is not in charge of the PDP structures in the state. To the state PDP director of organisation, "the essence of zoning is to reduce the contention/agitation within the party."

In fact, Daniel's quest for justice to have a Yewa/Awori person to succeed him affected his case at the tribunal. Some of the governor's supporters got compromised in the hope that the election would be annulled by the court and that Daniel would never be given the opportunity to re-contest. But when the governor won at the tribunal, the gathering anti-Daniel forces embarked on another game plan.

It was at this stage that the attention shifted to the state House of Assembly. The first political template sold to the former deputy speaker of the Assembly, Hon. Ayo Odugbesan was to impeach the former Speaker, Hon. Titi Oseni for him (Odugbesan) to become the next speaker. A similar dummy was used to entice the deputy governor, Alhaja Salimot Badru. She was told that Daniel's impeachment would give her the opportunity to become the next governor for her to complete the remainder of the tenure. The deputy governor allegedly supported and bought into the idea.

Oseni, during Daniel's trip overseas, was successfully impeached and in her place a new Speaker was sworn in - Hon. Tunji Egbetokun. She was removed on the grounds of high handedness and for failing to be carry along other members of the Assembly. She was also considered a lackey of the governor.

These were the forces at play until last Saturday when Hon. Egbetokun told the world of plans to assassinate him. According to him, Daniel's Chief of Staff and six other armed men came to his official quarters with the intent to kill him. But luck ran out for them. They were immediately arrested by operatives of the State Security Services at the Legislators' Quarters in Abeokuta. The arrested people were in possession of two pump action rifles, two dane guns and several rounds of ammunition.

The following day, the governor's Chief of Staff along with other state top government functionaries announced that some people conniving with the governor's aides poisoned Daniel in Abuja. Since then Ogun State has no longer been at ease. Things have fallen apart and the centre may have lost its hold.

Contending Forces against Daniel

An alignment of sorts has brought together the likes of Obasanjo, Martins-Kuye, Chief Alani Bankole, Abatan, among others. But how and for what purpose?

Earlier this year, the governor alleged that some people wanted to kill him and an aide to Kuye was alleged to be the brain behind the move. Chief Martins-Kuye, in the meantime, was considered the father of PDP, pre-2003 in the state. He was like the party's sole administrator in Ogun. After Daniel's assertion, the aide was then arrested, prompting Martins-Kuye to get in touch with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Dimeji Bankole who eventually helped to secure the aide's release.

This resulted in a political rift between Daniel and Bankole. Worse still, Bankole was aggrieved that during the last state congress held to nominate representatives for PDP's national convention in Abuja, Daniel refused to nominate any of the federal Speaker's nominees at the ward level. Instead, Daniel selected the nominees forwarded to him by Hon. Oseni who was still the Speaker of the state Assembly.

Prior to this, the duo often appeared together at public functions in the state. But this has since petered out. The duo's political difference paved the way for Bankole with the help of his father to raise his profile in the state. The first assignment in that order was the impeachment of the former Speaker (Oseni) of the state House of Assembly.

Bankole and Oseni were never on good terms. So, Bankole capitalised on his differences with Daniel to send signals to the state that he's not a push-over. He helped removing Oseni and sought to strengthen his own political ascendancy ahead of the 2011 election.

Similarly, elders in Ogun Central like Alhaji Sule Onabiyi, Chief Alani Bankole, Ishola and the former president moved in to clip the governor's wings. The move was aimed at stopping the governor from unilaterally picking and imposing a Yewa/Awori candidate on the state. The Egbas also want to produce the next governor. Presently, it is uncertain if the governor even has the political muscle to install the next governor, more so one from Yewa/Awori.

Similarly, Daniel has opponents from outside the state who want to see him emasculated. The struggle for the political leadership of the Yoruba nation has seen him pitch his tent against the former governor of Ogun State, Segun Osoba and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who was once his ally. Daniel threw caution to the wind when he started using his newspaper to malign Tinubu.

So far, the governor's opponents have succeeded in seizing the legislature from his sphere of influence, making an impeachment a clear and present danger. But the threat of impeachment has been dismissed by key actors in the legislature with the likes of Hon. Egbetokun denying the very notion. Also, the chairman of the Elders' Forum of the PDP in Ogun State, Chief Sule Onabiyi, said members of the state House of Assembly "cannot impeach" the governor. He is of the view that the governor has accomplished more than any governor before him.

The impeachment threat may appear distant on the surface, but the events of last week Saturday may compel the lawmakers to consider it as an option sooner rather than later. It is however yet to be seen if the lawmakers have the impetus to carry out their threat. But one thing that can halt any moves towards an impeachment is the threat by some constituencies to recall their lawmakers. In fact by last Thursday, the people of Ijebu East Constituency had made good their threat to recall their representative in the State Assembly, Hon. Akeem Salami. This may ultimately swing the lawmakers back to the side of the governor, who assisted all of them initially to secure the party's tickets and ensured their victory at the polls.