Johannesburg — IN POST-Polokwane SA, the air is thick with talk of a possible political realignment that could see the formation of a new centre-liberal political alternative drawing people from across the political spectrum.

Key movers behind this initiative believe that this new force could soon provide an alternative to the African National Congress (ANC) at the ballot box.

The main catalyst for these efforts to reconfigure opposition politics is the shift in the balance of power within the ANC. The ruling party's historical ability to be a broad ideological church is part of the reason it has been so successful in dislodging its opponents to the left and the right.

But movers behind the envisioned new party believe the ascendency of ANC president Jacob Zuma signals the end of the multiclass nature of the ANC. They believe this will provide a new party with ideological impetus, as well as prompting key people in the ANC to join in.

Given the lacklustre performance of the more than 13 parties in parliamentary opposition, the possibility of a real realignment on this front would be a welcome development, especially if it could pose a challenge to the ANC in a general election. With less than a year to go before South Africans go to the polls, Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille, who recently went public with the idea of creating such a new party, seems upbeat about the idea. She tells Business Day she would even be prepared to give up her role as leader of the largest opposition party if such an initiative gets off the ground. Her attitude is no doubt informed by what she sees as the unravelling and fragmentation of the ANC since Zuma's takeover as party president last December.

Zille says that the new party would provide a "real nonracial" alternative to what she calls the ANC's "racial nationalism". She says that forming a new party poses the challenge of whether South Africans "could beat the logic of their own past".

Of course, talk of opposition realignment is hardly new. Remember the excitement when Bantu Holomisa and Roelf Meyer teamed up to form the United Democratic Movement (UDM)? The chattering classes were soon disillusioned, when the party failed to gain popular support. Patricia de Lille's Independent Democrats is another example of how a great idea can melt into thin air under the harsh realities of electoral politics.

However, what is different about Zille's initiative is her claim that it would draw in "true democrats" in the ANC. While Zille is coy about providing names, for fear that it could end the political careers of ANC members who still hold public office, she is sanguine about what she believes are points of convergence. A market economy, constitutionalism and an open-opportunity society are the cornerstones that will bind these former political foes and provide the basis for a realigned opposition to the ANC. But will such an initiative provide a real alternative to the ANC at a policy level, not to mention elect a leader with the gravitas to lead such a party? The failure of black-led opposition, such as the UDM and the African Christian Democratic Party, suggests that such a force will have to have more than just a black leader if it wants to be a relevant player.

Some analysts suggest that Zille's initiative is nothing but a convergence of particular class interests across racial lines, a view that seems to be borne out by the joint hysteria from the opposition over threats - perceived or real - to SA's constitutional democracy. The subtext to their fears suggests that the barbarians under Zuma have taken over the ANC and have diverted it from its noble origins as the champion of the anti-apartheid struggle. This view is perpetuated by the media, which suggest that those who hold the country's constitution dear have much to fear from the ruling party under Zuma. This class bias can be heard in the discourse of disgruntled elites, some of whom lost control of the party last year. A lack of "political understanding and familiarity with ANC culture and tradition" explains why the party seems to have lost its way, they say. Former cabinet minister Kader Asmal's comments during Mbeki's Nelson Mandela lecture last year summed up this bias . He told anyone who cared to listen in the foyer of Wits University's Great Hall after Mbeki's lecture: "Now that is what we need in a president: someone who thinks, not someone who calls for his machine gun."

Of course, when the tide turned against Mbeki, Asmal wasted no time getting involved in his ANC branch and nominating Cyril Ramaphosa to stand as a third-way candidate to break the Mbeki-Zuma impasse.

The fact that Mbeki and his ministers had lost touch with the party's mass base, coupled with the growing social distance between the poor and the ANC leadership, were factors many ANC leaders in government refused to entertain as reasons their side lost the party. And while Asmal recently criticised Zille's challenge to Zuma to sign his Declaration in Support of the Constitution, his campaign does dovetail with Zille's rally around what she refers to as constitutionalism.

When I put it to ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe that there is talk among ANC members of looking at alternatives to the party, he appears unsurprised, admitting that the toenadering between some in the ANC and members of the opposition was a reality. "They will end up like the PAC and the UDM," he says. Both came about as a result of breakaways from the ANC.

It appears the idea of a possible breakaway from the ANC gained currency in the immediate aftermath of Polokwane. Many in the Mbeki camp are indeed toying with ways to re-enter the political arena. A senior government official holds the view that many cabinet ministers who were not re-elected to the party's national executive committee are weighing their options. "There are definite discussions about the possibility of forming an alternative. You must remember many of these people have been in government and the executive for over 10 years and they believe that their political and economic vision is the correct one for the country," the official said.

This group also appears to be buoyed by initial indications about the potential loss of support for the ANC among its traditional support base. Insiders say that early indications point to huge losses in confidence. It is understood that those who are weighing their political options have taken a close interest in research findings that measure support for the ruling party. Insiders say such research findings will be used as a yardstick to measure support for a new alternative to the ANC.

Judging from the opposition's comments about what they call the ANC's diminished standing with voters, it does suggest that supporters of this new initiative believe that they ought to capitalise on the ANC's perceived or real weaknesses among the electorate.

But talking about forming an alternative to the ANC is one thing, getting support for it among voters in large enough numbers is another altogether. It must be remembered that the option of breaking away from the ANC and going it alone has also been under discussion within the ANC's left allies and gained momentum under Mbeki's tenure as party president. In fact the South African Communist Party (SACP), while having deferred the party's decision to its September policy conference, has not abandoned the idea in principle. But as a senior SACP leader says: "If those who lost want to mount such an initiative, it will have to be bankrolled. From what we have heard, they will certainly not lack the money or resources to start such an initiative, but the question is do they have the organisational muscle?"

Judging from Zille's comments about her interaction with business around the new party, it appears that sections of the business community appear to also be enthusiastic about the possibility of an alternative to the ANC. As a power broker, business knows all too well that it needs to keep an open mind, especially given the current fluidity in the ANC. This would explain its enthusiasm about Zille's initiative while it simultaneously cosies up to Zuma.

In unpacking the possibilities that such a new force could create, it is clear that it will have to be rooted in the politics of the long haul. The elections next year will be an important milestone that should provide insight into just how viable such a new political party would be. The ANC's performance will be an indicator of whether South Africans are ready for an alternative to the party 's hegemony come elections in 2014.

Brown is political editor.