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Zimbabwe: Report Says Low Intensity Conflict Taking Root


The Nation (Nairobi)
 

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The Nation (Nairobi)

18 July 2008
Posted to the web 17 July 2008

Patrick Mutahi

An African think-tank has unveiled a detailed report that warns of a low intensity war in Zimbabwe linked to the country's election cycles.

The study, compiled by the Africa Policy Institute's (API) Nairobi and Pretoria offices in partnership with the Democracy and Governance program of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), identifies the sources of political violence as extending beyond ZANU-PF's youth militias, war veterans, the army, police and intelligence structures.

According to the report, the newest addition to the Zimbabwe crisis is the retaliatory violence of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which seems to escape the attention of regional and international players.

The API report, Saving Zimbabwe - An Agenda for Democratic Peace, recommends bold and decisive actions to be taken by the African Union and SADC to minimise and eventually eradicate the culture of political violence in Zimbabwe. This, it says, will create an atmosphere conducive to a negotiated settlement of the crisis.

According to API President and a Director of Democracy and Governance at HSRC, Dr Peter Kagwanja, a volatile situation and retaliatory violence would worsen the Zimbabwe situation. He adds that the MDC has no option but to uphold its commitment to a peaceful democratic process.

The report also notes that the Zimbabwe electoral crisis points to the need for a continental strategy of dealing with the post-election crises setting Africa ablaze in Kenya, DRC, Ethiopia and Egypt.

It also recommends that the AU should consider establishing a continental Electoral Commission along the lines of its Human and People's Rights Commission, and an Electoral Court to tackle complex cases like those witnessed in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

The API report also calls for the expansion of the Mbeki-led AU/SADC mediation as the best instrument for resolving the crisis. It however cautions that while the mediation may draw from international expertise, it must retain its African essence and character and work to achieve an executive power-sharing arrangement with a definite time frame and monitoring tools.

Upon the signing of the peace deal, the API also notes that the SADC should implement the recommendations of its Executive Secretary on a Zimbabwe Economic Recovery Plan while ensuring a buy-in from all parties involved, regionally and internationally.

At the heart of the Economic Recovery Plan, it says, should be the need for a Zimbabwe land reform strategy to deal with the land question, involving Britain, which has historical obligations to the southern Africa country arising from the Lancaster House Agreement.

The report also recommends that finance ministers of SADC member states and regional finance Institutions, such as the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and African Development Bank spearhead the financing of the recovery plan, including liaising with and providing a conduit for financial support in the post-crisis reconstruction.

Among other recommendations, the report proposes that the international community, including the European Union, the United States, China and the UN Security Council consider pushing for multilateral sanctions targeting both ZANU-PF and the MDC to commit themselves to an AU resolution calling for the end of violence and peaceful negotiations to achieve an inclusive government of national unity.

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The study is based on the analysis of documents, interviews with strategic policy makers and practitioners across the continent, and the coverage of critical regional meetings and field presence in Zimbabwe.



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