allAfrica.com: Uganda: Mengo Arrests; Knee Jerk Reaction Or Planned Move? (Page 1 of 1)

I must say something quickly about the Medard Lubega, Peter Mayiga and Betty Nambooze arrests, before they become a "matter before court." For the record, I am writing this piece on the afternoon of Tuesday, July 22, 2008. This is the day when both the independent Daily Monitor and the government owned The New Vision carried a similar headline to the effect that the above three persons were nowhere to be seen.

Matters have not been helped by the statement of the police spokesperson Judith Nabakooba that the detainees were "safe." The word safe in Uganda's security lingua could also mean: in a "safe house" - an ungazetted detention centre which is another name for a torture chamber as those fortunate enough to have survived them have attested. The less fortunate have not lived to tell their tale. Human rights reports on 'safe house' treatment of suspects abound.

When you live in a country where the safety of high profile untraceable detainees can only be claimed by the police spokesperson and not by the families of the detainees or their lawyers, over 72 hours since their arrest, you know you are in trouble. The information that they are detained at far flung places makes it more intense - doesn't history repeat itself?

For in the 1960s, Obote locked up some of his critics away in Karamoja. It is apparent that the enforcers of the regime's will are determined to make life as difficult as possible for the suspects, and to subject them to a form of psychological torture.

The arrest of the three serving officials of Buganda Kingdom on suspicion of attempting to procure arms in order to wage war on the regime cannot be taken lightly. A serving official can only act on behalf of his/her appointing authority.

Could the King of Buganda also be a possible suspect? If not, could he be termed as negligent of his subordinates' dangerous activities or at best ignorant of his employees subversive actions?

In that case should we wait for a statement from the kingdom in the coming days disassociating itself from the arrested officials? The timing of the arrests is significant for two reasons.

First, it happened on the Friday when Buganda Kingdom organised a grand conference to discuss Buganda's role in a changing Uganda. Foreign and local intellectuals spoke, notably Prof. Ali Mazrui and Prof. Mahmoud Mamdani.

Were the arrests a knee jerk reaction to sabotage the strategy for a more influential Buganda that was being hammered out at the conference? Or was it a well thought out plan that could only be executed on an important day for the kingdom in order to effectively demoralise the Baganda by sending the strong message: "We can pick the vocal ones amongst you any time and in any manner we want?"

Secondly, the arrests have come at a critical time in the NRM regime's life. The organisation has suffered a major blow in recent days to its image of a united, strong revolutionary party.

Divisions have openly surfaced among its ranks, with others deciding to wash their dirty linen in public. For the first time in 22 years we have heard from a key NRM figure, a former intelligence chief, whose organisation enacted the famous Anti-sectarian Act, that there was a "Bahororo factor" in the party. Despite the best efforts by the regime's spin doctors to downplay the chaos in the NRM, even a child would tell that all is not well in the ruling party.

An NRM big wig from the east has candidly accused the president and the party secretary general of 'killing' the party. Are we seeing the beginning of the second wave of transition? The first wave, I reckon, was when retired Col. Kizza Besigye broke away along with the first brave batch in 2001 to form the Reform Agenda.

Faced with un-reconcilable internal division, could the regime be trying to divert attention from its internal problems by creating an "external challenge" with an "ethnic twist" and present it as: "It is Baganda versus Us"- in order that a semblance of unity is reconstructed in the regime's badly split ranks?

Or could it be that there are more sophisticated transitional dynamics in play, in which a section in the regime eager to rid themselves of their overstayed leader, deliberately and maliciously supplies the wrong intelligence, and offers the wrong advice to the leader in order that a crisis big enough to cause regime change can be formented?

For, in all fairness, whoever encourages a regime into a confrontation with Buganda must be either naïve, an anarchist or a pretty smart operator who wants to manipulate the consequences of the fallout.

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