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South Africa: Earth to Gazprom
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Business Day (Johannesburg)
COLUMN
25 July 2008
Posted to the web 25 July 2008
Johannesburg
AT A time when many cringe at the thought of filling up their cars, the last thing one needs is a dire warning from Russian gas and oil monopoly Gazprom, that the price of oil could rise to $250 a barrel.
Yesterday, Gazprom warned it was inevitable the price would rise on growing energy consumption.
Simply translated, such a scenario would mean we would have to brace ourselves for big increases in the pump price - and with it resign our pockets to an unrealistic spate of increases in the price of food and everything else.
Not to mention what this would mean for inflation and interest rates.
But for what it is worth, local economists are not convinced the oil price will surge to those scary levels.
Kevin Lings, economist at Stanlib, said there had been a definite decline in demand for oil, especially from the U.S. - the world's largest consumer.
This was affecting the oil price. Even demand in Europe and emerging markets was slowing , which partly explained the softening oil price.
Nevertheless, Lings warns that if there is a significant supply disruption this may lead to a spike in the price.
So the question one should ask is: what planet is Gazprom from? Or are they simply talking up their own book?
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The Bottom Line is Edited By Edward West
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