Harare — As Zimbabwe’s political protagonists’ inch closer towards a negotiated settlement to the country’s multifaceted crisis, there is growing scepticism that they could reach a deal that will provide a lasting solution to the problems blamed on President Robert Mugabe’s leadership.

Late today, talks between Zimbabwe’s ruling party and opposition on ending the political crisis resumed after adjourning early last week, South Africa’s presidency said.

Adding to tensions in Zimbabwe, which is also suffering economic collapse, police confirmed that a bomb had exploded on Saturday at the central police station in Harare. There were no casualties and no claim of responsibility.

President Robert Mugabe’s party began power-sharing talks with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change in South Africa two weeks ago to try to resolve the crisis after Mugabe’s unopposed re-election in a poll boycotted by the opposition.

While an agreement might not be reached by August 4 as set out in the MOU, indications are that there are no insurmountable obstacles to the final settlement.

Strong indications

But already there are strong indications that the outcome of the talks could prove difficult to sell to Zimbabweans and the influential Western countries who are key to any economic revival in the battered country.

The European Union and the United States have made it clear they will not accept any government led by Mr Mugabe because he lost a legitimate election to his rival Mr Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC.

Mr Mugabe has dug in his heels, insisting he was given the mandate to govern by the people and the MDC appears to have given in to his demands to be recognised as the legitimate president of Zimbabwe.

The opposition leader outpolled Mr Mugabe but failed to garner a majority to assume the presidency, prompting the June 27 run-off election which Mr Tsvangirai boycotted.

A deal that fails to give Mr Tsvangirai executive powers as head of a transitional government would be rejected by the group of Western donor nations that have pledged their support to a post Mr Mugabe Zimbabwe.

The group includes the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Australia and Canada – countries that have said the June 27 election was not legitimate.

“Whatever agreement the talks produce, Tsvangirai must head the government,” the respected Zimbabwe Independent newspaper said last week. “The unity government must have close ties with the Western donors and that can only happen if the countries accept the outcome of the talks.”

Once the donors reject the agreement, sanctions imposed on the country would remain intact and Zimbabwe’s economic crisis that has already driven close to five million people to seek refuge across the world will certainly worsen.

Since the talks began the US and the EU have imposed fresh sanctions to pressure Mr Mugabe and his Zanu PF to accept the outcome of the first round of the presidential election. Even African countries that in the past have stood solidly behind the Zimbabwean government have taken very radical positions on an agreement that leaves Mr Mugabe in control.

Botswana, which is one of the countries seriously affected by an influx of Zimbabwean refugees, has even threatened to boycott the forthcoming Southern African Development Community (SADC) to be held in South Africa on August 14 if Zimbabwe is allowed to attend.

The neighbouring country has openly said it would not recognise any government led by Mr Mugabe, breaking away from the African tradition of paying a blind eye to excesses by peers.

However, an even bigger threat to the political settlement might come from Zimbabweans themselves with many groups protesting loud that the power sharing talks ignored the input of key stakeholders.

One of the fringe political parties has even gone to the extent of challenging the negotiations in the Pretoria and Harare High Courts.