Tim Cohen
4 August 2008
column
Johannesburg — THE 2009 elections present SA's mish-mash of opposition parties with perhaps their best opportunity to make serious inroads into the ANC mammoth support base since democracy.
The ANC is frankly in disarray, which is not that same thing as saying they will not win overwhelmingly. The opposition parties are too fragmented and too aligned to some or other particular constituency to make serious inroads.
Opinion polls suggest that ANC president Jacob Zuma's approval rating remains extremely low, despite some adept political manoeuvring.
The polls also show the ANC is in danger of losing the majority vote in perhaps three or four provinces and will therefore be forced to rule in coalition.
The leadership battle, the issues over Zuma's court case and the belligerent statements of his supporters have created a kind of miasma over the policy issues over which the election might and should be fought.
However absorbing these battles are, opposition parties should rather take the advice of one of the most adept politicians of our age, Bill Clinton. "It's the economy, stupid," was the central piece of advice that Clinton gave himself.
Yet it's on issues of economic growth that SA's opposition parties have been historically weakest.
I was amazed to see posters of DA leader Helen Zille appearing on lamp posts in Johannesburg recently exhorting the public to "win the war against drugs". It's hard to think of a more bizarre message in the midst of an economic downturn. The message might be appropriate on the Cape Flats, but in suburban Johannesburg?
Yet the DA has the potential to inject a sense of moral steadfastness into the campaign. With a woman leader who has a reputation for solid management, the DA will provide an interesting counterpoint to the seemingly dysfunctional ANC.
It's especially useful to the DA that the NP has committed har a-kiri, which means the party will not need to keep looking over its right shoulder as it seeks to address the colossus on its left.
Much the same applies to Independent Democrats president Patricia de Lille, who will reap some of the benefits of her long campaign against the arms deal in an election where it will feature strongly.
I suspect a key figure in the election will be UDM leader Bantu Holomisa. Holomisa has a lot going for him as someone expelled from the ANC for highlighting corruption, in an election in which corruption promises to be a major theme.
His practical approach to politics and his direct and simple eloquence are a breath of fresh air compared to the convoluted ANC-speak on the issues of the day. He suffers somewhat from a lack of powerful charisma, but even in this he makes an interesting counter point to Zuma, who has yet to demonstrate there is substance behind his populism.
For Inkatha, however, I suspect this election will be calamitous.
As much as Inkatha has denied it, Zulu tribalism has been one of the main weapons of its ageing leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, and this weapon will be blunted by the fact that he faces an ANC leader from the same tribe, who is equally committed to indigenous symbolism and practice.
Taken together, opposition parties have struggled to construct a convincing economic argument that demarcates them from the ANC. Part of their problem is that the ANC has shifted so profoundly towards the centre of the economic debate, espousing an economic policy that is broadly within the mainstream. But since the "Polokwane putsch", as one commentator described it, this is no longer the case.
Several leading academics have argued there will be few, if any, economic changes under a Zuma government. I think this view is extremely hopeful. The profound nature of the changes is already evident. Parliament is considering a land expropriation bill that is belligerently hostile to farmers. There are amendments before Parliament to competition legislation that not even the Competition Commission supports.
The significance of these pieces of legislation, and others, lies not only in their content, but the extent to which they have been bludgeoned into place. The notion of Codesa-like negotiations with Nedlac at the centre aimed at a balanced economic policy is now gone. The left has decided it will brook no "interference" to its economic agenda, which is premised on command economy interventions reminiscent of left-wing governments of the '60s long since jettisoned by those same parties which put these disastrous polices into place.
So how should the opposition parties respond?
They need to find a vocabulary for economic policy which is growth-orientated without opposing the need for redistribution or poverty support. They need to avoid notions of "trickle down" economics, yet emphasise how important growth is to achieve redistribution and poverty reduction. This may seem difficult, but actually it's not. You can say it in six words: a rising tide lifts all boats.
"'It's the economy, stupid," was the central piece of advice that Clinton gave himself'
'Yet it's on issues of economic growth that opposition parties have been weakest'
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