The Danquah Institute (DI) conducted a survey combining both quantitative and qualitative research methodologies with the basic objective of finding out the current popularity ratings of the Presidential Candidates and how voters rate the performance records of the two main political parties.

The survey also sampled views on the vice presidential candidate slot and how much the choice of running mate may influence voting patterns.

The findings here relate to the most current survey of DI, which focused on seven Regions, with the fieldwork taking place between July 31-August 8, 2008. In Greater Accra, eleven constituencies were surveyed on August 2, and the survey at Ashaiman was conducted on Friday, August 8.

The remaining five southern regions were surveyed from August 3 to 7, 2008 by three separate teams. An earlier survey of the three northern regions was conducted July 3-14 as part of extensive field work on a variety of political issues.

Forty constituencies in the seven regions in Southern Ghana were selected using five criteria to produce the results of the quantitative survey.

In the seven Southern Regions, the research team targeted homes, pedestrians, commuters, shops and traders along the streets in the various constituencies. In the three northern regions, every constituency was visited and focus group discussions were held with party executives as well as regional executives.

2,982 respondents comprising 53 per cent male and 47 per cent female were sampled from a targeted 3,141 people using 0.15 per cent of the 2000 registered voter population in the 40 selected constituencies. In a few constituencies the 2006 registered voter population was used as the sampling frame.

The seven regions surveyed, between July 31- August 8 contain a total of 160 parliamentary seats. The survey focused on 40 (25%) of the 160 seats.

In the 2004 presidential election, Prof John Evans Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress won in 16 of the 40 constituencies selected, (representing 40%). President John Agyekum Kufuor of the incumbent New Patriotic Party won in the remaining 24 seats, representing 60% of the seats.

Thus, proportionate to the number of parliamentary seats controlled by the two leading parties and the number of constituencies won by their respective flag bearers in 2004, the survey was concentrated a bit more in NDC-held areas. This would make any improvement in NPP ratings more significant and vice-versa any reduction in NDC ratings.

The margin of error is calculated at +/- 1.80%.

Out of 2,896 respondents, 1516 (52%) said they would vote for NPP's Nana Akufo-Addo "if elections were held today." 726 (25%) said they would vote for NDC flagbearer, Prof John Atta Mills. 85 (3%) opted for CPP leader Dr Paa Kwesi Nduom. 419 (14%) refused to disclose their voting preference, while 150 (5%) said they were undecided.

Even if the secret and undecided votes (per this poll) are added up (making up 19% of the total respondents) and given to Prof Mills, this would take his total sampled votes to 44%.

65 per cent of respondents said the choice of running mate would not influence their decision to vote or not to vote for a presidential candidate.

The Danquah Institute is a Media, Research and Policy Analysis Centre.