Elias Makori
15 August 2008
analysis
Beijing — At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I maintain that Kenya will be lucky to win a gold medal in tonight's competitive women's 10,000 metres final at the "Bird's Nest" that is Beijing's National Olympic Stadium.
Indeed, a medal of any colour will occasion huge celebrations among the country's track purists who know only too well what lies in wait in this blue riband 25-lap race.
Sports journalism is not about patriotism, it's informed by statistics and these are based on three basic elements: times recorded, previous performances and the formbook.
All these three elements suggest that Kenyans – Lucy Wangui Kabuu, Peninah Arusei and Linet Masai - are rank outsiders in Friday night's women's 10,000m final that starts at 10.45 pm, Beijing time, which translates to 5.45 pm Kenyan time.
The pre-race favourite is three-times world champion Tirunesh Dibaba who will have the extra motivation in the fact that the Olympic gold in the 10,000m is about the only item missing from her overflowing medals cabinet in Addis Ababa where she lives with her two running sisters Ejegayehu and Genzabe Dibaba and her boyfriend, Sileshi Sihine.
Ejegayehu is also entered in tonight's 10,000m race.
Dark horses
Tonight's race also has a few dark horses that include two women who took up Dutch citizenship and who are strongly tipped to break a possible African clean sweep of the medals.
Lornah Kiplagat turned Dutch in 2003 while Hilda Kibet was handed the Dutch passport last October. Lornah has won gold medals for the Dutch at the World Road Running Championships and the World Cross Country Championships. It will be Kibet's first major outing in the orange Netherlands strip.
Dibaba's form this year is amazing. In March, she won the senior women's gold medal at the World Cross Country Championships in Edinburgh and in June, she lowered compatriot's Meseret Defar's 5,000m world record by four seconds to 14 minutes, 11.15 seconds.
What's more, the 22-year-old Dibaba – who might attempt a double with the 5,000m coming up later - won the 10,000m Africa title at the continental championships on home soil in May and went on to clock her season's best time of 31:03.37 at the Golden Spike meeting in Ostrava. This which puts her firmly on pole position, formwise, in Friday night's race.
Her sister Ejegayehu is a silver medallist from the Athens Games four years ago and knows what it feels to be on the podium. She will be inspired to move a rung higher to the gold medal position with the third Ethiopian, Mestawet Tufa, providing support.
Of the three Ethiopians, Tufa has run the season's fastest time of 30:38.33, also her personal best, which she clocked in June in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. China's Xing Huina will not run.
Kenyan charge
Kabuu, the Commonwealth champion over the distance, will lead the Kenyan charge with Arusei and Masai the supporting cast. Kabuu has a personal best time of 31:05.90 which she set in Athens in 2004 and which is slower than team-mate Peninah Arusei's 30:57.80.
But her form and condition in training over the last few days in Beijing ranks her as the best placed among the three Kenyans to fight for a medal position.
"We will run as a team and try as much as possible to control the race," said Kabuu.
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