Business Day (Johannesburg)

Southern Africa: China's Thirst for Oil Exposes Gap in Regional Naval Policy

Johannesburg — EXPERTS are calling on SA to lead the African Union in formulating a China policy to determine strategies that will protect the security of Chinese oil supplies from west Africa that are transported via the Cape.

Addressing a conference on maritime security in southern Africa in Stellenbosch recently, Prof Renfrew Christie, dean of research at the University of Western Cape, sa id China's ever-growing demand for energy was a global threat - and particularly to the southern Africa region, which had to prepare itself for any eventuality - ranging from terrorism to the depletion of marine resources through overfishing by foreign companies.

Christie estimates that China's energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product is eight times that of the UK, five times that of Japan and three times that of the US.

As a result, China is competing with the US and Europe for African oil and, already, Angola is believed to be supplying China with more oil than any other external source.

"Africa cannot afford not to have a China policy because, even now, unnecessary wars are being fought in Africa about oil for China," sa id Christie.

China is headed towards being the world's richest economy, he said.

For example, the number of Chinese living in extreme poverty has considerably dropped . This means China has raised millions of people to the level of urban middle class, with implications for energy demands and food consumption that will soon outstrip world supply.

Helmoad Romer Heitman, of military magazine Jane's Defence, said African states had been neglecting their obligations to invest in the necessary personnel and equipment to ensure their maritime security.

The neglect meant there was effectively the ceding of control over large swathes of national territory; leaving economically important activities and resources unprotected.

He said this was an abdication of the countries' responsibilities to "monitor the primary approach route of any serious enemy".

Not taking into account the offshore continental shelf, Sub-Saharan Africa has a coastline of about 21000km and an exclusive economic zone of 7,8-million square kilometres. African leaders were therefore reminded that two-thirds of their populations lived inside a 60km strip along the coast.

Only 15 of Africa's 53 states are landlocked and, since 1960 , half of the United Nations peace operations have taken place in coastal states.

Experts say that none of the five regions of the continent have an excuse for not considering new doctrines, organisational structures, weapons, training, a maritime security centre and new rules of engagement in order to protect regional economies effectively.

Prof Reiner Pommerin of Dresden University of Technology said a new approach to military thinking and planning was crucial for regions in Africa.

Even for Germany and its neighbours, the need to improve maritime forces hit home only when German ground forces had to be evacuated from Somalia in 1994 using frigates and support ships.

It also took the tragic situation in former Yugoslavia, which required the lengthy participation of German Navy ships to control the Adriatic Sea, to note the importance of equipping naval forces in Europe.

Pommerin sa id an efficient maritime security concept could be achieved by a multinational approach in Africa, as had successfully been achieved by the European Union.

"Only African nations can really guarantee m aritime s ecurity in African waters," he said.

Christie said China would have substantial implications for the maritime affairs of Africa, since vast quantities of oil bound for China had to be shipped safely around the Cape.

"Whoever wants to protect Chinese oil supply must secure Cape waters; whoever wants to stop oil flows to China must master Cape depths," he said.

The round trip by tanker between Luanda and Maoming is 18000km .

In the medium term, the Chinese are expected marginally to reduce the load on sea transport, via a Burmese pipeline. There is also speculation that they could build a blue water fleet, centred on aircraft carriers, to protect the supply.

Christie argues that for the sake of world peace and prosperity, a maritime security dimension is crucial and inescapable for southern Africa. He says African states should decide now to be part of those protecting the Chinese oil supply or risk seeing their economies crumble when rogue elements -- or even rogue states -- begin to attack tankers.

"This is not just a 'Malacca dilemma' as some would think. I suggest the threat exists also at the Cape of Storms," he says.

"Whether successive governments are more or less sympathetic to Chinese oil dilemmas, the South African navy needs more ships and more time exercising at sea so it can achieve its goals, whatever they turn out to be."

Christie says the Cape is a choke point for oil to China, just as it could be for oil to Europe, if the Suez Canal were to be closed or damaged.

Chief of the South African Navy, Vice-Admiral Johannes Mudimu, said improved mechanisms for the governance of oceans by national governments, regional organisations and international agencies were an urgent necessity. There was a growing concern for the health of the world's oceans due to the rise in maritime crime and maritime warfare.

Mudimu said SA still had no comprehensively encompassing maritime policy and this often lead to duplication of effort, a waste of resources and, in certain instances, critical maritime tasks not being carried out due to functional delimitations that had not been agreed to.


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Comments 1 to 1 of 1 Post a comment

  • Think about it
    Aug 15 2008, 05:44

    I always wondered why we did not buy our oil from Angola.