Daniel Steinmann
15 August 2008
column
Windhoek — The first good news in almost two years on the South African economy came on Thursday when the South African Reserve Bank announced their headline interest rate, the so-called Repo Rate will remain unchanged at 12%.
This automatically sends a signal that the Bank of Namibia was correct in its decision to keep the local Bank Rate on hold since the beginning of this year. But is also sends a signal that the South African economy is probably reversing its fortunes and that growth will gradually accelerate, working up for the 2010 Soccer World Cup.
I expect this impetus to become stronger and to carry the region's economy well beyond 2010 despite an expected downturn in commodities. If I am proven correct, events will raise another question: How far does South Africa really need its neighbours?
Last Friday's NEPAD SADC Regional Infrastructure Projects Conference, held in Johannesburg, forces one to face the reality that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) means substantially more to us than to the South Africans. This was evident throughout last year's EPA negotiations with the EU, but it struck me again how little SADC features in South Africa in the public eye.
There is a striking difference between the amounts of SADC cover in South Africa compared to the other countries in the group. I realised anew just what a non-issue SADC is for South Africa when I noticed this major conference was lucky to get one mention in a leading SA daily. To illustrate my point, in newspapers in Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, the SADC conference received all the attention it should.
The hard reality is that South Africa does not need the Southern African Development Community. To them we, and all the other members, are a mild irritation, humoured only to ensure that a stream of commodities the others and we produce, either flow through, or are controlled by South African concerns. And the only political consideration is one of necessity: there are just enough people in South Africa that realise they need to be involved in SADC simply to ensure that the countries north of them develop to such an extent that they would not, through their own potential instability, threaten the economy in SA. It's a rather disconcerting reality to realise SA does not need us and that their only involvement is to view us as opportunities for charity to ensure and protect their own prosperity.
Driving around in the Gauteng province I am always amazed at the incredible pace and the sheer size of everything. Nothing there happens at a measurable pace and very little comes in small dozes. It is mildly chaotic but efficient in the extreme and the Gauteng output is staggering, even by world standards. It is almost as if the other SA provinces are a drawback to Gauteng. Talking to business leaders, I get the impression they think they can do very well without the slower leadership in many of the other provinces. If they think that of their own compatriots, imagine what the general perception of the broader Development Community is? They truly view us as backward, undeveloped, deepest darkest Africa, and a big nuisance.
How then can we participate realistically in all the talks about regional integration and how can we ensure our slice of the cake when the expected benefits begin to show?
For us, in turn, the reality is, we need South Africa. We, and all the other SADC member states, excepting perhaps Mauritius and the Seychelles, cannot go forward without the economic push the SA giant generates. This one single country is what carries the whole rest of the sub-continent. And we are painfully aware of it. The trick is: how to get South Africans at large to realise we are all in the same boat, so to speak, and that actually, whether for convenience or for real, they also need us.
It is always surprising to find out, maybe one in one hundred South Africans know where and who SADC is. Sure, they know all the individual countries but to talk about the Development Community to the average South African is like expecting them to know something about Belize. Their ignorance on both is the same.
My observation does not lead me to believe that SADC is still-born. On the contrary, like South Africa was eventually forced to acknowledge the other partners in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), it will eventually realise it is not alone in southern Africa. But we have to know that at this point, SADC does not feature on the SA horizon. It will require hard work from us to get South Africans to shift their focus to the whole region and it will take time.
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