Financial Gazette (Harare)
15 August 2008
editorial
Harare — OUR sixth sense had told us that the hullabaloo about talks between ZANU-PF and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) was nothing but a façade meant to raise people's hopes, only to dash them when they least expected it.
Instead of being indifferent to President Thabo Mbeki's mediation effort, we chose as we still do, to ignore our intuition while throwing our full weight behind the Southern African Development Community (SADC) initiative -- realising it offered the only viable way out of the Zimbabwean crisis.
Not that we had underestimated the distinct differences of the tussling parties in terms of their ideologies, their sickening hatred towards each other and the deep-rooted suspicion over what their leaders stand for.
Even in this darkest stage of the negotiations, we still offer no apologies for overriding our instincts in the interest of giving the talks the chance to succeed.
While Mbeki has over the past six years laboured to nudge ZANU-PF and the MDC towards a negotiated settlement, Zimbabweans had until Tuesday evening, when Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, bolted out of the venue of the talks asking for more time to reflect, kept their hopes alive that the South African leader was to eventually pull a wildcard to end the rising political tensions in the country.
To climb out of this deep hole, the sickly Zimbabwean economy must be allowed to operate in an environment where the political leadership pulls in one direction.
Working at cross-purposes has sucked the momentum out of the economy gained soon after independence in 1980, when the country was renowned for being the region's breadbasket.
In the court of public opinion, the feuding political leadership, that is President Robert Mugabe and Tsvangirai, now resembles a heavy tax burden, which Zimbabweans do not deserve.
With inflation northward bound at 2,2 million percent, the latest convulsions suffered by the Zimbabwe dollar in the aftermath of the talks deadlock cast a shadow over the country's future.
The hate language resurrecting in the government media coupled with the flagrant disregard of a Memorandum of Understanding signed on July 21, suggest Mbeki has a tough task cut out for him.
Unless Mbeki impresses on the powers-that-be in Harare to rein in spoilers who are sacrificing national interests at the altar of political expediency, he will stand little chance of salvaging the talks.
To all intents and purposes, the power sharing formulas being bandied around the rumour mill fall short of reassuring Zimbabweans that a deal might be signed anytime soon. In the absence of official communication on the talks, there is nothing to suggest a power-sharing arrangement is in the offing unless of course the intention is to annihilate Tsvangirai and his party through the negotiations.
It would appear that the incumbent and Tsvangirai are glued to their pedestals or a stronger force is holding them back from making real concessions that might end the hostilities between them and breathe life into the comatose economy.
The inflammatory messages transmitted during the Heroes Day and Defence Forces Day commemorations and the elevation of security chiefs fingered in the violence that marred the lead-up to the June 27 presidential run-off has betrayed ZANU-PF's hypocrisy while exposing its arrogance that might deny Mbeki the opportunity to leave office with his head held high.
While Mbeki, must be commended for giving out everything in searching for solutions to the Zimbabwean crisis, he should always remember he is walking a tight rope. The worst thing Mbeki cannot afford is to be seen taking sides.
On one hand, he is fighting to gain the confidence of a former trade unionist whose negotiation skills leave a lot to be desired after failing to settle squabbles in his own backyard following the October 2005 MDC split.
The fact that Arthur Mutambara, leader of the smaller faction of the MDC, is now rumoured to be singing from the same song sheet as President Mugabe, betrays serious shortcomings on the part of Tsvangirai who should have cut a deal with the former university student leader long before the negotiations.
Yet on the other hand, Mbeki has to show a firm hand in dealing with President Mugabe whose only concession of note so far is being agreeable to negotiate.
Before the talks, the politburo -- ZANU-PF's supreme decision-making organ -- had dug its heels in over issues it said were non-negotiable, including President Mugabe's disputed victory of June 27.
President Mugabe has also failed to reprimand senior security chiefs for sending a chilling message to the electorate ahead of the March harmonised elections, where they vowed never to salute Tsvangirai. In the absence of a U-turn, the only logical conclusion is that the position of the security chiefs has not changed and this does not bode well for the negotiations.
While Mbeki might get comfort from a political rapprochement between Mutambara and President Mugabe, this laughable truce does not add value to the process of finding a lasting solution to the country's crisis. Tsvangirai remains the critical piece to Mbeki's jigsaw puzzle.
We however, fear that ZANU-PF might think Mutambara, whose factions has 10 seats in Parliament, could be the ace in the pack, which it could use to form the next government. Taking such a detour would not give respite to Zimbabweans, as the wafer thin majority resulting from an alliance with Mutambara would not win the country the much-needed support of the international community, whose interest is to see a deal representing the will of the people being consummated without further delay.
There should never be positions cast in stone in politics. The chance is now for SADC to take a stronger stance on the dialogue in Zimbabwe and to press President Mugabe and Tsvangirai to close ranks and save their country from catastrophic collapse.
The powers-that-be should be careful not to invite further economic sanctions by adopting rigid positions in the hope that China and Russia will once again come to the country's rescue should the issue head in the direction of the United Nations Security Council for the umpteenth time. Parish the thought!
May be this might also be the time for Mbeki to give way to another fresh pair of hands.
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