Financial Gazette (Harare)
Clemence Manyukwe
22 August 2008
Harare — PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe faces the prospect of a hostile parliament unwilling to endorse government plans, heralding the escalation of political tensions when legislation cannot be passed because ZANU-PF has a minority in the House of Assembly.
As a sign of potential conflict, the state media reported last week that parliament would be convened "soon" despite the fact that a deal has not yet been reached between the negotiating parties.
This flies in the face of a provision in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between ZANU-PF and both Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formations, which stipulates that the national assembly should be opened with the consent of all negotiating parties.
To cloud the issue further, talks mediator President Thabo Mbeki, said at the end of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit at the weekend that there was need to open Parliament.
MDC leader Morgan Tsvan-girai's formation has 100 members in the lower house; the other opposition formation has 10 Members of Parliament (MPs) while ZANU-PF has 99.
Jonathan Moyo, the MP-elect for Tsholotsho is the only independent legislator.
The resulting tug of war between parliament and government for the first time since independence in 1980 is likely to delay economic reforms and bring the decade-long political crisis to a head.
Opposition legislators could constrict the President's powers by refusing to endorse government plans on important national issues such as the passing of the budget.
Although ZANU-PF and the combined opposition have 30 seats each in the Senate, ZANU-PF will control the Upper House through presidential appointees comprising 10 provincial governors, five non-constituency senators and 18 chiefs who normally side with the ruling party.
However, ZANU-PF's majority in the senate will not be of any help in the crafting of legislation as the House of Assembly has the final say on all laws emanating from parliament.
ZANU-PF will also not be able to amend the constitution, as was the case in the previous parliament, because that requires a two-thirds majority, which it does not have. But neither does the combined MDC.
ZANU-PF's majority in the senate is likely to be useful only in the management of internal succession politics in the event that President Mugabe decides to step down before completing his term of office.
Under Constitutional Amend-ment No 18, one of the outcomes of Mbeki's mediation, if a sitting president does not serve his full term, a joint sitting of the Lower and Upper Houses chooses a successor and under that scenario, ZANU-PF would have a majority.
A ZANU-PF source warned on Tuesday that if parliament does not co-operate with President Mugabe he might be forced to dissolve it.
The source said the parties had signed an MoU with a provision on the opening of parliament because they realised that they were in a "jam".
"What will result is a constitutional crisis? A constitutional crisis means that you have an arm of the state, which cannot function due to the non-cooperation of another arm of the state," the source said.
"The President has an option to dissolve parliament and call another election."
The MDC will have the option to introduce Private Bills -- proposed legislation not emanating from the government -- but these could also hit a brick wall because any bills passed need the President's assent and signature to become law.
With the two MDC formations failing to agree on the appointment of the Speaker of the House of Assembly, the formation headed by Arthur Mutambara stands a chance of landing the post despite having the least number of seats, sources said this week.
In talks last week, Tsvangirai suggested that negotiating parties grant his formation the right to appoint a Speaker, but the request was turned down by both ZANU-PF and the Mutambara formation.
Sources told the Financial Gazette, Tsvangirai's proposal was turned down because ZANU-PF and the Mutambara group had information that he had approached former politburo member Dumiso Dabengwa, with the aim of appointing him Speaker to consolidate his support in Matabeleland.
ZANU-PF and the Mutambara faction's opposition to Dabe-ngwa's appointment could see them teaming up to appoint a speaker from the smaller MDC faction with the President of the Senate co-ming from the ruling party.
The sources referred to a clique within ZANU-PF, which was bent on derailing the talks so as to thw-art the granting of any decision-making powers to Tsvangirai. These hardliners were responsible for leaking stories to the state media in violation of the MoU.
The MoU states that "parties shall refrain from using abusive language that may incite hostility, political intolerance" during the talks, but this week The Herald accused Tsvangirai of lying to SADC leaders.
The sources said this was one of the ZANU-PF hawks' ploys to scuttle the talks.
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