Segun Imohiosen
28 August 2008
opinion
Lagos — "This is not 1968 and the invasions of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten its neighbours, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it". This is the comment of the America Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice over the Russian attack on the Georgians on the conflict between Georgia and Ossetia in the heat of the deepening crisis when Russia stepped in to support South Ossetia. So far, the crisis has taken a new dimension as it is and unfortunately this new occurrence in the affairs on the international scene is a big challenge within the nations of the world. The push between Russia and America is taking on a new catastrophic spate on the surface as it is in that if something is not done quickly by the rest of the super powers, particularly the members of the Security Council, the situation will be unrepentantly gory that even the city of Gori will not be able to withstand the bashing that it may receive at the end of this bloodbath and killing. My fear is that Gori may end up becoming a shadow of itself in Georgia at the aftermath of this aggression.
As this crisis further unfolds, the sordid situation is that Gori being a strategic town in Georgia located so close to South Ossetia where the attack is being launched will hardly ever survive the onslaught that is on going. In the newest development as reflected by the Georgia Security Council Chief Alexander Lomania, he made to understand that 50 tanks of the Russians have been moved into Gori, (though at the time of this report have increased tremendously to over 130) this is in violation of the new accord as he posited even though The RIA-Novosti news agency cited the Russian Defense Ministry as denying the claim. Congruously, information has it that Russia accused Georgia of killing more than 2,000 people, mostly civilians, in South Ossetia even though that could not be confirmed independently but witnesses who fled the area over the weekend said hundreds had died.
The point now has gone beyond the issue of counter claiming but how to avert the further spread of this crisis from developing into something uncontrollable as the day goes by. It may surprise some of the observers that why is the interest of Russia in the matter that involved a neighbour that ordinarily in a civilised environment that any conflict could have been doused through dialogue without recourse to arms carrying, but it is worthy to note that Ossetia has been a separatist region along the Russian border with close ties to Moscow, a pro-Russia territory. And Russia considers it her responsibility to ward of any form of hostility and aggression that may face Ossetia from any quarters.
It must be recalled that Georgia emerged from the break-up of the Soviet Union divided by its own separatist conflict and afflicted with corruption and poverty. In recent years, it has transformed into one of the more democratic countries in the region. Georgia Republic became independent in 1991. The president places a huge priority in reuniting three regions that refused to recognise federal rule: Ajaria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, although he gained success with Ajaria but not with others who have wanted to pull out since the early 1990's. Georgia's president foolishly and tragically baited the Russians-or even more foolishly fell into Moscow's trap when he sent his army into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia last week. There is no imaginable excuse for Russia's invasion of Georgia. After pounding both civilian and military targets with strategic bombers and missiles, Russian armoured vehicles rolled into Georgia raising fears of an all-out assault on the capital and Mr. Saakashivili's democratically elected government.
However, Moscow claims it is merely defending the rights of ethnic minorities in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have been trying to break from Georgia since the early 1990s. But its ambitions go far beyond that from the look of things as it were. However, going by the reports obtained in the face of the growing development, the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev had said that Russia was halting military action because Georgia had paid enough for its attack on South Ossetia, but then, Medvedev still ordered the Russian defense minister at a televised Kremlin meeting to destroy any resistance or aggressive actions. This translates automatically to mean that the trouble is no longer seen from the perspective that peace can be brokered almost immediately. Russia's move in Georgia is happening amid an overall struggle between the U.S. and the Russia for influence within Eastern Europe. From the Russia's point of view, American support for Georgia is a direct threat to its influence. In furtherance, striking heavily in Georgia, Moscow is sending a signal to other former Soviet republics, like Ukraine and Moldova, according to Sarah Mendelson, the Director of the Human Rights and Security Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International studies in Washington.
The military incursion of Russia into the Georgia territory, the U.S ally, is not favourably disposed to by America. Diplomatic officials of the U.S. according o the White House press secretary Dana Perino, he said they are scrambling to decide whether Russian troops have violated a cease-fire agreement, reached earlier in the week between Georgia and Russia through the mediation efforts of France. It calls for both forces to return to the positions they held on August 06. With this initiative on the part of France to settle conflict in the area, it is like the U.S. is losing the whole region since it appeared that America has let its European allies take the lead on the diplomatic efforts to stop the fight in Georgia. The Europeans have a greater influence over Russia and the U.S. needs Russia to help with other thorny diplomatic issues, such as efforts to pressure Iran to suspend its nuclear programme. The president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili is very disconsolate over the state of affairs with regards to America for not taking more measures to help during the crisis who called to send peace keepers to the region according to information. However, following trend with regards to an Administration official to CNN on the on going, the most likely challenge Russia is faced with would be the likelihood that the U.S. and the European allies will kick out Russia from the G-8, the group of the world's largest economies, and other international organisations as punishment for its action in Georgia. They also said that Russia relationship with NATO was also at a risk.
Going by history, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, from March 20 to May 1, 2003 was spearheaded by the United States, backed by the British forces and smaller contingents from Australia, Poland and Denmark. The invasion no doubt marked the beginning of the current Iraq war. According to George Bush and Tony Blair, the reasons for the invasion were to "disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), to end Saddam Hussein's support for terrorism and to free the Iraqi people". Whereas Blair said the actual trigger was Iraq's failure to disarm itself of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that U.S. and coalition officials called an immediate and intolerable threat to world peace. As true as this claim may seem to the entire world, the fact remains that the super powers should tread very softly to avoid giving the rest of the world the impression that they are only using their big position to oppress the smaller countries.
By dint of space, one may not be too detailed as it were on other closely related issues as exemplified in the piece but it is worthy of mention. Look at the case of the U.S. invading Afghanistan in the cause of looking for Osama Bin Laden. What about Iraq overrunning Kuwait in 1991? These aggressions are becoming too many. Weaker nations seem to be at the mercy of the super powers from the look of things.
In the nations of the world where sovereignty and territorial integrity are of essence, these have been undermined by the share disregard and disrespect for the other nation's political positions through the act of just entering into nations territory and running them down. At least considering the present state of affair in the current Georgia + South Ossetia and Russia + America conflict, the rest of the world have to wake up to avoid further holocaust. Although this is not to say that the super powers do not clash when there is counter interest but the truth is that, there is an urgent need for the world over to come quickly to terms on these recurrent aggressions through a conference that can address further disaster from taking place.
What exactly is the leaning of the international community? The situation in Georgia and South Ossetia is often, often and often times recurrent in the world system over. The super powers have become unusually too strong and too uncontrollable. Too often at every little disagreement, they overrun the weaker nations at will even though other super powers may appear to come to the aid of these weaker nations due to alliance between them. Nevertheless, the blow may have been dealt regardless of the settlement afterwards. Can Gori ever remain the same after the crisis? The heart of the matter is if these nations in question today are experiencing these pains, they may appear very far away to the observers from this part but someday it may be so close home that it may be on the African soil or even our dear Nigeria, what then would be done? The earlier this is addressed, the better for all of us.
- Imohiosen wrote from Abuja
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