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Zambia: Just How Democratic is MMD Succession Debate?

Nebert Mulenga

4 September 2008

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analysis

TWO major issues have arisen in the short period that the Zambian presidency has fallen vacant floowing the death of President Levy Mwanawasa.

There is equal passion in this debate for, one, the process of choosing a candidate to carry the fortunes of the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) in the forthcoming presidential by-election.

Secondly, a tangential, highly emotive aspect has been added to the mix by those seeking to ensure that the late president's purported persona and private preferences, expressed to a select few, are fulfilled.

The group pushing for the crowning of the 'anointed one' apparently expects that everyone in the ruling party should be working to enforce the late president's wishes on the matter.

But from an independent analyst's view, the two issues have clearly fissured the ruling party into two distinct camps during this campaign.

Analysts say this divisive nature of the campaigns in the MMD presidential race is generating fears of possible instability, as Zambians head to the ballot before November 17.

"We are seeing conflict in the MMD because they haven't managed their succession issue in a manner that would have reduced tension," said Lee Habasonda, executive director of the regional good governance and human rights watchdog, the Southern African Centre for Constructive Resolution of Disputes (Saccord).

"It's looking scary; we are seeing divisions and possible splits in the MMD. Then we may not have the unity we need as a country they should not divide themselves even before they choose the (party presidential) candidate."

The Zambian Constitution, which is under review, requires that an election for the office of the republican president be held within three months from the date of the sitting president's death.

President Mwanawasa, 59, died in the French capitial, Paris, on August 19 after almost two months of battling the effects of a severe stroke he suffered on the eve of an African Union Summit in Egypt on June 29.

The late president, whose anti-corruption drive endeared him to western donors and led to the 2005 cancellation of Zambia's US$7.2 billion external debt by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, was buried in Lusaka yesterday.

The Government has since confirmed that the election for the remainder of Dr Mwanawasa's second and final five-year term which would have ended in 2011, will be not later than November 17 though the poll date is yet to be announced by the Electoral Commission of Zambia.

Ever since President Mwanawasa died, the ruling party leadership has locked its horns in a hot debate on finding a successor.

The MMD has no vice-president who would have been Dr Mwanawasa's automatic successor.

In the run-up to the 2006 general election, President Mwanawasa froze the position of party vice-president after it emerged that some of the candidates vying for the post were allegedly involved in corrupt practices such as vote buying.

But after winning the ballot with 42 per cent of the vote ahead of opposition Patriotic Front Michael Sata's 29 per cent, Dr Mwanawasa gave the republican vice-presidency to Rupiah Banda, originally from the opposition United National Independence Party currently led by Zambia's founding president Kenneth Kaunda's son, Tilyenji.

In the wake of the forthcoming presidential by-election, the ruling party recently called for application letters from all interested members to be considered for the presidency.

The party's National Executive Committee (NEC) is expected to assess all applicants and pick its candidate by tomorrow.

A number of high-profile names have since been linked with the vacant top post: vice-president Banda, Finance minister Ng'andu Magande, former vice-presidents Nevers Mumba and Enoch Kavindele, as well as Lusaka business executive Sebastian Kopulande, are all among the 15 hopefuls.

But, although the NEC is expected to independently assess each presidential hopeful before picking the ideal candidate, critics are now casting doubts on the credibility of the final decision of the party's supreme organ.

This follows the recent veering of the succession debate from policy-driven issues to claims of the late president's preferred successor, as well as the on-going provincial endorsements of Dr Mwanawasa's successor.

Former first lady Maureen Mwanawasa recently told local media that the fallen icon of the anti-corruption drive had preferred his Finance minister Magande to take over from him after the expiry of his term, and she also hinted that the family lawyer would avail video footage of her late husband's personal declaration on his successor.

Another faction within the governing party has been pushing for the adoption of the current acting president Banda, saying the late president had a lot of faith in his leadership qualities for him to be the number two.

Already, top leadership in seven of Zambia's nine provinces, including Mr Magande's homeland of Southern Province, have since endorsed the possible candidature of Banda.

Analysts say the governing party's leadership has been torn in-between: whether to simply endorse the late president's alleged wish for a successor, or to exercise the democratic principles in arriving at the successor who would have the mandate of the people.

"Clearly, the MMD is in a Catch-22 situation: on one hand they want to continue with Levy's legacy which is why they are binding themselves to what could have been his wish for a successor, and on the other hand they are trying to prove themselves as a democratic party that upholds the wish of the majority," commented Mr Habasonda.

"It all depends on how they are going to handle this succession issue, and the Opposition are waiting strategically. Obviously, if they (MMD) don't handle this succession issue properly, they may find themselves in the opposition; they risk becoming the opposition themselves."

It is widely anticipated that the strong factions in the MMD, either pushing for the adoption of the late president's 'anointed' successor, or for the adoption of any other candidate under a democratic arrangement, could lead to splits within the governing party.

And the man to most likely gain would be opposition Patriotic Front (PF) leader Michael Sata, a veteran in both founding president Kaunda and Dr Mwanawasa's predecessor Frederick Chiluba's governments.

In the bitterly-contested 2006 election, Mr Sata secured all urban parliamentary seats in the capital, Lusaka, and the country's economic lifeblood, the Copperbelt Province.

The PF has already cancelled its national convention initially slated for this month to focus on the forthcoming presidential by-election, while the United Party for National Development has also announced that its leader, businessman Hakainde Hichilema, who came out third in the 2006 general election with 28 per cent of the presidential vote, would be contesting on the party's ticket.

According to Transparency International Zambia president Reuben Lifuka, the succession debates in the ruling party based on the late president's preferred choice could negatively affect the country's democratic record achieved over the last 17 years of multi-party politics.

"Like any other individual, Dr Mwanawasa had the right to express an opinion over the matter but ultimately the citizens have the right to choose their leaders.

It is, in fact, difficult to believe that the late president preferred Finance minister, Ng'andu Magande since Dr Mwanawasa is not alive to state it for himself.

"The president is not here to defend himself and it is undemocratic for people to pick a candidate just because he was preferred by the president. Zambia is not a monarchy but a democratic country," commented Mr Lifuka.

Chief government spokesperson, Mike Mulongoti, who is also Information and Broadcasting minister, as well as chairperson for the elections committee in the ruling party, regretted the new direction of the succession debate saying it could plunge the party into disrepute if it was not properly handled.

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