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Nigeria: Yar'Adua's Ill Health - When Will the Hide And Seek Game Stop?

Abdulfatah Olajide, Hussain J. Ibrahim & Abdullahi Y. Bello

6 September 2008

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analysis

Yet again the true state of President Yar'adua's health is fuelling ugly rumours and stocking the embers of political instability. Weekly Trust takes a look at how the politics of the president's health was poorly handled and its cost to the nation?

When the Federal Executive Council met this week, the president's seat was empty. But members of his cabinet, comprising his ministers, the Secretary to the Government of the federation and vice President Goodluck Jonathan stood and later sat reverentially around the empty seat, observing the day's business of governance. The council deliberated on matters of state as usual, the empty seat that speaks volumes to the nation staring at them all. At the end of the meeting, they still carried on as usual: smiling, shaking hands, hugging and backslapping. The minister of information, John Odey addressed the press, again as usual, on the outcome of the council's deliberations, which included awards of contracts and other state matters.

But outside the council chambers perceptions are not as usual. What has happened to make Nigeria's hottest and most important seat empty for the second week in a row? The question seems to echo to the empty space. The official line goes that the man who occupies that seat in trust to Nigerians, President Umaru Musa Yar'adua is in Saudi Arabia performing the lesser hajj. But another line fuelling the rumour mills goes that he is very ill and likely incapacitated to keep holding that seat in trust to Nigerians. After a pitiable attempt to minimise the fall-out of the information mismanagement, Odey admittedly watered down the official version and went closer to saying the president was ill by letting out that "yes of course" he is free to take the opportunity of the lesser hajj "to undertake medical check-up."

Why this latest piece of information was not vouchsafed right from the onset of the president's trip is the question that has added to speculations that the government has been less than honest about the true health of the president. But another line goes that even the government knows nothing about the true status of the president's health, only a small cabal of family members, friends and political henchmen know the true picture.

Some denials

Question though is why should the status of the president's health be shrouded in mystery or even become such a controversial issue when Nigerians are known to have a large heart gushing with empathy? The answer is to be found closer to the power game that has regrettably become a fixture of governance in Nigeria in superiority to delivering the benefits of the kind of governance that will improve lives. It was a power game that started well before or immediately after Yar'adua was handpicked by his immediate predecessor, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, to succeed him. While doubts were expressed about the medical fitness of his handpicked successor to withstand the rigours of the office of president, Obasanjo has defended him thus: "I know all about Umar's ailment and it has disappeared since 2001. It was a miracle. So those calling him a sick man are the ones who are sick."

But several bouts of breakdown where Yar'adua has to be rushed to Germany for treatment puts a lie to the former president's statement that his successor has been cured of his kidney ailment. The revelations came early, a few weeks before the presidential elections when after the rigours of the campaign trail Yar'adua broke down and was rushed to Germany for treatment, fuelling later, rumours that he is dead. He made a triumphant return into the country, saying he went for a routine medical check-up. He also at a time claimed he was cured of his kidney ailment. "I was elected as governor in 1999. In the year 2000 about the last quarter of that year, I took ill," he said. "I realised that the problem was my kidney. I went to Germany for treatment and I got treated, then I came back."

Again, in April this year, a month before he pulled through one year in office, in a style of administration that has been described by his critics as slow, he was at a German hospital for another round of treatment. He made light of the concerns about his ill health saying he is human and it is natural that he should succumb to illness sometimes. "The whole nation cannot be waiting for the President to get well," says the National Secretary of the opposition Action Congress, Usman Bugaje. "If he is not well, let them come out and say it, in any case. I will like to say we should support the effort of Femi Falana who has written to the Senate President, quoting section 141 of the Nigerian constitution, which says that the Senate, in this kind of circumstances have the responsibility to set up a panel to review the health of the President, to establish beyond doubt what exactly is the situation. Based on that, the National Assembly can now decide whether he is really fit and able to run the government and if he is not, then they should simply do what the constitution says they should do."

Reacting to the barrage of criticism surrounding the state of the president's health, the PDP publicity secretary Professor Ahmed Rufai Alkali says a section of the political class is playing politics with the president's health to score cheap goals. "People who ought to know better have abandoned the faith in God and condescended into introducing politics into the matter in their attempt to cause confusion," he says.

The pity in all these though is not only about the president's state of health or ill-health but about concerns about are fast becoming the defining feature of his presidency. Already the Yar'adua presidency is still bogged down with the question of the legitimacy of the elections that brought it to power, a matter that has been tabled before the Supreme Court awaiting its decision. Then there is the added burden of whether his slowness, or deliberateness as supporters of his administration counter, is a sign of incompetence. It is becoming a long chain of doubt about whether his government could deliver at a time when Nigeria is in much need of deliverance. Other charges go that it is beholden to a cabal.

The cost

At a time when Nigerians should be debating the policies of the government and the likely implications it will have for their welfare and development, they are served dishes about the ill-health of a leader who many still believe was imposed by a president who is desperate to rule behind the curtain after his failed bid to perpetuate himself in office. Though Yar'adua has been able to put some distance between him and Obasanjo, the doubt still lingers nevertheless that his administration will not make much of a difference.

More than a year on, the Yar'adua administration has not been able to tackle any of the debilitating national problems in a way that would signify it is serious to do business. There is also much to worry that it will go into its second year with hardly much to show. The 2008 budget only got passed close to the end of the first quarter of the year after a lot of squabbling between the executive and the legislature. The budget is likely to suffer from poor or non-implementation because of certain amendments yet to be effected on it. "The 2008 budget is not on the table," says Osita Okechukwu, spokesman of the CNPP. "It is still in the kitchen of the National Assembly. The budget is the yardstick we can use to determine whether the government is working or not."

On other matters where a firm and sustained effort is needed until solutions are found, the Niger Delta debacle for instance, the President merely flips flops. A summit was announced few months ago to provide a forum for the government to engage with the people of the Niger Delta, and the United Nations deputy Secretary General Prof. Ibrahim Gambari was announced as its chairman. But when he was rejected by the elders of the Niger Delta the Yar'adua administration simply withdrew into its shell over holding the summit. Nothing new has been proposed so far.

The administrations often touted stance to declare a power emergency, a promise the president made while campaigning for office has remained largely in the realm of promises even though he said he would do that within six months of assuming office. With the president's fifteen days absence, government activity is low though the vice-president is very much around. This though has been attributed to the absence of a handover between the president and the vice-president before the president took off to Saudi Arabia. This means policy decisions needing the approval of the president have to wait. The plan to declare a state of emergency is one of the casualties of this. So also is the budget amendment bill before the National Assembly that is apparently being delayed because of the president's absence.

Among the many cost of Yar'adua's absence are the delay in decorating the newly promoted service chiefs. He was also supposed to commission the Nigeria Cultural House in Brazil but the visit to Brazil was put-off.

All of this ineptitude spreads to the states where traditionally the federal government led by the president is expected to set standards for the governors to follow. Few projects, if at all there was any, have been executed in the states to warrant an invitation for commissioning by the president. This is all unfair to Nigerians at a time the state and federal governments have been sharing billions of naira in revenue as a fall-out to the global increase in the revenue accruing from the sale of crude oil.

Can he deliver?

The concerns surrounding the health of the president does little to inspire confidence that the administration will get it acts together soon. This has denied the country the much needed security of knowing that its leader is capable of dealing with the complexities of problems facing the nation. "When the President is sick, it has grave security economic and political implications for the country" says Lagos lawyer, Festus Keyamo. "So it is very important that the President and his handlers should come clean about the state of health of the President." Feelers like this rebound to close observers of events in the country from the international community. The fact that the president approved the sack of all the service chiefs before he went on his trip also raised suspicion about the confidence he has about the continued stability of his government, especially in the light of concerns about his health. Other matters of a more political nature call for some attention. For instance, the presidency Yar'adua enjoys is a rotational arrangement. Should his incapacitation prove difficult to hide, either now or later, what will be the likely political fall-out for the nation?

Clearly, going by the political instabilities witnessed in the years from the Abacha regime to the Obasanjo administration, Nigeria is not in need of another poorly managed political crisis. The poor manner the president's handlers handled the crisis surrounding his health gives little room to expect they are competently up to the task should the situation become more dire. Will Yar'adua deliver Nigeria from its long years of political pains? Or will he worsen it?

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