Gitau Warigi
6 September 2008
opinion
Nairobi — Former President Daniel arap Moi has a knack of popping up in the news in dramatic ways.
On August 30, he was the chief guest at a Christian meeting in Nakuru where he made a remark that must have terribly annoyed some of his own people.
Talking of the post-election mayhem, he censured certain Rift Valley politicians for incitement and planning the killings. The newspapers reported that he asked the culprits to apologise to the victims.
The actual word he used was the strong, Biblically-loaded word "repent." Without having to say so, it was clear who he had in mind.
The easy thing is to dismiss Mr Moi as an old man who is out of touch, and probably bitter. He enjoys the luxury to raise issues considered unpleasant.
These are issues that prick the guilt of those concerned, and Mr Moi's intention was to do precisely that.
One retort I have heard is that he is carping because his political plans for the Rift Valley flopped in the last election. But the concerns he is raising are no less valid because of that.
Certainly the former President has a right - and a reason - to worry about the political circumstances of his Rift Valley people.
More so their future. At least even his worst critics should not begrudge him that privilege. So what are these concerns?
Point number one is the lack of real political leverage. There is no serious political party where Rift Valley can be said to be in the driving seat.
There is a sense where Mr Moi's constant carping about the fate of his beloved Kanu in his home province is like crying over spilt milk. ODM is the new reality there, much as he hates to internalise that fact.
But the catch is this, which jells with Mr Moi's main worry: the man in control of this ODM - firmly and without dispute - is Mr Raila Odinga.
Some outfit called United Democratic Movement (UDM) is sometimes floated as an alternative for the Kalenjin.
Yet the whole thing comes across as a false and unconvincing alternative. What, if we may ask, is UDM? It is like saying Sisi kwa Sisi or Mazingira parties are powerhouses.
Number two, the demographics of the province are not advantageous. The indigenous segment of the Rift Valley Mr Moi had in mind has very limited options on their own outside ODM, and the movers of the party know it.
All the noise we have been hearing from some quarters there about charting an independent course is just hot air. On its own, this segment can go nowhere because the numbers don't add up.
Worse, groups like ODM-K which would have been inclined to strike rapport with Rift Valley will shy off because of the stigma arising from the post-election atrocities.
Besides, ODM-K will always fear the reaction from the mountain people, who have the real numbers the Ukambani party badly wants.
As for making amends with PNU, that must be considered as sheer wishful thinking, though you shouldn't be surprised in the near future to see somebody stringing along Rift Valley into precisely this sort of cul-de-sac.
Mr Moi knows this, and that makes his pain even more acute.
The ODM chiefs also are very aware of the total breakdown in relations between the Rift Valley wing and the Mt Kenya region, and that fortifies these ODM chiefs into holding firm against any form of blackmail from the Rift Valley wing.
The on-and-off noises about the prime minister being installed as an elder in Nyeri are instructive.
Even if the coronation will not happen, the fact that it is being discussed is a loaded message that some people should take note of.
Mr Odinga has a history of working with politicians from there and, despite the occasional antagonisms, there is a level of mutual understanding which is not shared with anybody else in ODM.
Coming back to Mr Moi, one thing that must never be forgotten is that the phenomenon of politicised ethnic violence in Rift Valley (in 1991, 1992, 1995 and 1997) began during his tenure.
But even if he ensured it remained localised and limited, a genie once unleashed is difficult to contain as it became apparent when it fully mestasized this year in January and February.
This topic is not a trivial thing. It brought our country low and overnight erased an image we had cultivated for years of our country being an example of peace and stability.
More tragic for us is the human, material and emotional cost of it all.
I don't think am wrong to fear that the hatred and bitterness that resulted from this madness will take anything less than a generation (most likely more) to heal.
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