Fred Oluoch
13 September 2008
Nairobi — Burundi professionals are worried that the 2010 elections might return the country to violence if the international community does not pressure the government and the opposition to play fair.
Prof Gervaise Gatunange of the Faculty of Law at the University of Burundi said the elections are potentially dangerous, with local observers convinced that the ruling party will use all means possible to win.
And if the ruling party loses, it is not clear whether it will accept defeat.
On the other hand, Palipehutu-FNL expects to win and observers fear that it might renege on the ceasefire agreement.
But Prof Gatunange, who was in Kenya recently, noted that past experience has shown the leadership of the landlocked country often responded to external pressure, given that Burundi's survival depends on the goodwill of the international community.
The anxiety, according to Prof Gatunange, stems from the fact that the history of Burundi elections since 1961 shows that the party in power always loses elections, but is often reluctant to hand over and sometimes responds by assassinating the winner.
In 1961, Prince Louis Rwagasore of UPRONA won the elections that brought independence, but was assassinated three weeks after his victory.
Again in 1993, the then ruling UPRONA lost to FRODEBU of Melchior Ndandaye, who was murdered three months later in a military camp. The assassination sparked off a civil war whose aftershocks are still being felt.
In the last election held in 2005, FRODEBU lost to the CNDD-FDD party, which comprised former rebels. In the 2010 elections, the last rebels, Palepehutu-FNL, are confident of defeating President Piere Nkurunzinza.
The government's performance in parliament has been wanting, given that it is unable to pass legislation because it cannot obtain the required majority.
The continued insecurity in Bujumbura indicates that the elections could be violent. Both the ruling party and the Palepehutu-FNL trade accusations on who is responsible for the killings in Bujumbura that sometimes wipe out whole families. The general feeling among the people is that the government is too weak to take control of the situation.
The ceasefire agreement, signed in June, was to result into the integrating of the rebels into the national defence outfit and security forces.
However, FNL disarmament has barely started and the absence of dialogue between the government and the main opposition parties could be harmful to the country's governance, the forthcoming elections and the future stability of the country.
In the past, Burundi elections have been conducted along ethnic lines and a competition between the parties allied to the majority Hutu and minority Tutsi. But given that Tutsi parties have no chance of winning elections, competition will be within Hutu parties.
Thus, the participation of the Palipehutu-FNL in future elections could lead to the reintroduction of ethnic dimensions to the political discourse while unity within defence and security bodies remains fragile and the authority of the Constitutional Court is weak.
Prof Gatunange said that civil society and the media have in the past played a key role in keeping the players in check by openly denouncing abuse of power.
However, the civil society might not do much during elections without the support of the East African Community partner states and other development partners. More worrying is that an independent electoral body is yet to be constituted.
During the 1993 and 2005 elections, the electoral body acted with impartiality, and the counting of votes was done in a transparent manner.
Apart from winning the confidence of competing forces, the electoral body is expected to draft a code of good conduct for political parties and security forces.
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