19 September 2008
The September 5 election has delivered a new political profile of Angola that does not map onto the old pattern of support delivered in the 1992 elections.
The main opposition party Unita has been decimated in its heartland of Huambo and Bié, but has found surprising support in Cabinda, where a low level insurgency continues and where it won a third of the vote.
Elsewhere the only party able to show any substantial resistance to the MPLA blockbuster was a small party in the diamond rich provinces of Lunda Sul and Lunda Norte, which campaigned for local autonomy.
International welcome
The Angolan elections have been duly given their international rubberstamp. Portugal was almost as quick as the African Union or Southern African Development Community observers to congratulate the Angolan authorities and Prime Minister José Socrates declared that he was "deeply satisfied with the transparent, free and democratic way" in which the ballot took place.
The much-awaited preliminary statement of the 108 European Union observers was overall positive. "Angola consolidates its commitment to peace and takes a positive step towards strengthening democracy with a high voter turnout and a calm electoral process that revealed, however, organizational weaknesses, procedural inconsistencies on Election Day and an uneven playing field for contestants", says the document released on September 9.
On the positive side, the mission noted that the parties' calls to display mutual respect during the campaign and for freedom of assembly and expression were widely respected. It also pointed out that state radio and TV allocated equal free airtime to all contestants. The EU observers stressed that for the first time, domestic observers from Angolan civil society were present during the vote and that "counting was conducted in a peaceful and transparent manner".
But the mission also highlighted problems which affected the distribution of essential materials, especially in Luanda, causing a significant number of polling stations to open late, or not at all. Unita presented a complaint challenging the voting process, insisting on the the lack of voter registers at polling stations, the shortage of ballot papers and the non-accreditation of many Unita party agents.
The EU Mission said that imbalances served to benefit the MPLA during the campaign, such as the access to state resources and the involvement of the provincial administration. EU Observers also stressed that state-owned media provided a coverage of the campaign that was generally biased in favour of the MPLA. Nevertheless, irregularities and weaknesses did not change fundamentally the result, say off-the-record EU observers.
Moreover, Unita itself contributed to the credibility of the results by acknowledging its defeat. Its president, Isaias Samakuva, said that the party should accept the result of the elections, without waiting for the result of the claim for a recount in Luanda. At any rate, the request was turned down by the Electoral National Commission because of a procedural mistake. It should not have been up to Unita as a party to lodge this claim but rather to candidates or registered voters in those constituencies, ruled the Commission.
Beside this, it would have been difficult for Unita to challenge results that, despite some irregularities, proved a landslide for the ruling party.
At national level, MPLA scored 81.73 percent, about eight times more than Unita (10.38 percent, ahead of three other parties which scored above one per cent - the Partido da Renovação Social (PRS) with 3.1 percent, the Nova Democracia (1.2 percent) and the FNLA, which is the other big loser with just 1.13 percent.
The MPLA won an absolute majority in all the 18 provinces, including the former Unita strongholds of Bié where Unita ranked second with 18.13 percent and Huambo where it scored 13.5 percent. The only province where the former guerrilla movement performed well was Cabinda where it obtained 33 percent of the votes.
In Luanda and Cuando Cubango, Unita scored more than 14 percent. But in some provinces, Unita's defeat was humiliating to say the least - in Malanje (2.13 percent), in Bengo (4 percent), in Cuanza Norte (1.3 percent) and in Lunda Sul (3.7 percent).
The only province where the MPLA scored only a narrow victory was the Lunda Sul where the PRS, which advocates local autonomy, obtained 42.28 percent as against 50.09 percent for the ruling party. The PRS also did well in Lunda Norte (25.97 percent). This party is the only one that scored better than in 1992 with 3.1 percent at national level as against 2.27 percent 16 years ago. The high turnout (over 70 percent) provided added legitimacy to its support.
Better funding
Analysts stress that the financial disproportion between the MPLA and its rivals, the funding it had from parastatals, its control of the public media and restrictions on independent radio stations, and intimidation of opponents explain the ruling party's victory.
These may have played a role but in addition the MPLA has a formidable base of 2.8 million militants, nearly one in five Angolans. More significant, it is the main provider of jobs in the public administration and in the parastatals. Finally, many people voted for the MPLA because the party was identified with the economic boom experienced over the five last years and because they feared a narrow victory of one or the other side could have posed the risk of confrontation again.
They voted for the MPLA even as they were aware of the corruption within the establishment. In other words, the vote was for peace and stability.
One-party set-up?
A few voices among the intellectuals, however, expressed concern. The writer and journalist José Eduardo Agualuasa described the results as "frightening for democracy". In his view, they could generate "a single political thinking", recalling a one party set-up. Another potential risk was that the landslide could add to the MPLA leadership's arrogance and set back much needed reform, since the opposition has now become a merely symbolic threat.
The positive side of the victory, however, is that it has defused fears of a resumption of war and may help also to defuse the mutual paranoia of the MPLA and Unita leaders.
The size of its victory means that it can strengthen its grip on the country's institutions and if it wants to it can change the 1991 constitution - it has more that the two-thirds majority in parliament needed.
The other important aspect is that the MPLA's victory will probably encourage President José Eduardo Dos Santos to make the announcement that he is standing for election as president next year. He may be less popular than the MPLA, but will still win a comfortable majority that will not diminish his power in Luanda or his influence in the region.
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2008 SouthScan. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
