Makau Mutua
20 September 2008
opinion
Nairobi — It is now the homestretch of the American presidential election and, on November 4, it will be over.
Opinion polls, reflecting the mood of the populace at the present time, have not given either candidate any cause for either alarm or celebration.
However, the views of voters are hardening, and both contestants are fighting for their political lives.
Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, has been buoyed by the razzmatazz created by Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, the political novice whom he chose as his running mate.
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, has struggled without success over the last several weeks to change the conversation from Governor Palin to real issues.
Could the choice of Governor Palin cost Senator Obama the presidency of the United States? At this point, the answer appears to be murky, although I still believe that Senator Obama will win the election in November.
Before Senator McCain chose Governor Palin, he was dead in the water. He was drawing small crowds compared to the adoring throngs that normally greet Senator Obama.
But Governor Palin has changed all that. A Republican conservative - she loves guns and hunting, opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest, and has been known to gut a moose or two!
A former beauty queen, the 44-year-old Palin appears to be attracting more white women to the McCain camp.
But Senator Obama should not worry too much about Governor Palin. She has such a thin resume that it is almost a joke that any serious person would think her qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
Consider this. Less than two years ago, she was mayor of tiny Wasilla, a rural hamlet in Alaska from whence she rose to become governor of the state.
She has very little executive experience, or any experience for that matter, to be a second away from the most powerful office in the world.
As if to acknowledge this fact, the McCain campaign has kept her away from the press fearing that she would be exposed as the novice she is and make a fatal gaffe.
But sooner or later, the press is bound to catch up with her.
Who really is Governor Sarah Palin? Fact: She has never met a head of state. Many Americans wonder how she might face down the likes of President Vladimir Putin, the Russian strongman, or President Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan.
How might she deal with North Korea or Iran, two states that are not particularly fond of the United States?
Will on-the-job training suffice? One hilarious joke making the rounds is that she thinks she is qualified to conduct foreign affairs simply because she can see Russia from Alaska!
Fact: She has only visited four foreign states - Mexico and Canada that border the United States, and Germany and Kuwait to see members of the Alaska National Guard who were serving there.
Nothing has prepared her to be Commander-in-Chief of the most powerful military in the history of the world. During an interview, she could not describe the doctrine of preemption which has been put in place by President George Bush.
The Bush Doctrine, as it is known, pivots on the principle of preventive war in which the United States can depose foreign regimes it deems a threat to American security even if such threats are not immediate and no attack is imminent.
It is stunning that someone who could be president is unfamiliar with such a core policy of the government.
It is fair to say that Governor Palin knows next to nothing about foreign policy. How she could be expected to govern a country at war boggles the mind should something happen to a President McCain who, at 72, would be the oldest person elected president.
In contrast, Senator Joe Biden, who is Senator Obama's running mate, is an acknowledged expert in foreign policy and has served in the Senate for over 30 years. He is clearly qualified to be president.
Governor Palin has not demonstrated any knowledge of the economy at a time when the United States is reeling from eight years of mismanagement by President Bush and the Republican Party.
The economy of the United States has not been in such a precarious condition for decades.
Huge financial institutions like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers have failed. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giant backbones of the US housing finance system, have been taken over by the government to prevent a collapse of the entire mortgage system.
Home foreclosures are at a record high. Layoffs and job losses have left millions helpless. The US is in a recession, although the government keeps denying it. This is not the kind of state that would be secure in the hands of a novice.
Of course it is not Governor Palin who is running for president. Senator McCain is. But he too would give America no comfort were he to win the election.
He has admitted that he knows very little about the economy. He supported the Iraq war, the single biggest foreign policy blunder in the entire history of the United States.
Even today, he insists that American troops should stay in Iraq without a deadline for an exit. Whether it is Senator McCain or Governor Palin, the choice does not inspire confidence.
Why then did Senator McCain choose Governor Palin as his running mate?
First, Senator McCain has been disdained by the conservative base of the Republican Party that sees him as too maverick and liberal.
In 2004, Senator McCain even contemplated becoming a Democrat and joining Senator John Kerry as his running mate. These are some of the reasons conservative Republicans had refused to rally to Senator McCain's side until he chose Governor Palin.
But Governor Palin was also chosen to appeal to white women who felt alienated by Senator Obama when he defeated Senator Hillary Clinton and then failed to pick her as his running mate.
Senator McCain hopes that many of Senator Clinton's white female supporters will now support the McCain-Palin ticket.
Whether it is the fear of race - by painting Democrats as too accommodating to tackle crime by African-Americans, or the fear of terror - by depicting Democrats as too weak on terrorists, the Republicans have played this script before.
I believe that Senator Obama will become the next President because the fundamentals do not favour a Republican after eight ruinous years under President Bush.
If Senator Obama loses, it will be because race will have played a larger role than I expect.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.
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