Michael Holman
22 September 2008
opinion
In South Africa, a bizarre and malicious end game was being played out between the country's lame duck president, Thabo Mbeki, and his charismatic successor-in-waiting, Jacob Zuma. In Kenya, where at least 1000 people died in post-election violence, a commission of enquiry ended ignominiously: every party, it concluded, was to blame for a poll so widely rigged that no one would ever be certain of the outcome.
And in Zimbabwe, Mr Mbeki brokered a poorly thought through deal which saw Robert Mugabe shake hands with his rival, the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai - but with precious little else to show for it. At best, the deal may provide a breathing space, in which the country counts the days till Mr Mugabe or the economy collapses.
Meanwhile, the problems unaddressed, or yet to be resolved, are formidable - as Mr Tsvangirai knows only too well.
The crisis of inflation apart, three other stand out;
- Mr Mugabe's land grab has left an indelible mark; not a crony or party loyalist, judge or army officer, will be evicted from former white farms to make way for the genuine, land hungry peasant.
- In the southern province of Matabeleland, home of the Ndebele people, there are scores to settle. Memories of army brutality in the early 1980s in which thousands of civilians died are painful; and a serious water shortage threatens its capital, Bulawayo.
- There is no provision for the prosecution of those responsible for economic crimes or human rights abuses.
But if it has been a bad week for democracy in Africa, it has not been much better for the democrats in the West.
The deal posed Zimbabwe's aid donors with a dilemma.
If the agreement is good enough for Tsvangirai, so the argument goes, should it not be good enough for western governments? To reject it - notwithstanding its evident flaws - and thus override the decision of the man who won the presidential election, will be seen as patronising, and playing into President Mugabe's hands.
The official donor line - that there should be tangible change and progress before funds start to flow - may seem fair enough. Restrictions on the press need to be lifted, political prisoners released, the independence of the judiciary and the police restored. But Robert Mugabe will surely resist such changes, seeing them as 'the thin end of a slippery wedge', as a local commentator pointed out. ,
Yet every day that passes without Prime Minister Tsvangirai being able to point to a tangible improvement in day to day life, the more threadbare the agreement, signed just a week ago, will look. And in the meantime, there is no sign of a coordinated attempt necessary to tackle the country's run-away inflation, which requires a multibillion dollar fund behind a stabilised currency.
It is easy to criticise Mr Tsvangirai, a brave man who has displayed inconsistent and erratic leadership. The fact is western governments have been outmanoeuvred by the wily Mr Mugabe. Books and medicines, agricultural inputs and spare parts, should have been on their way to Zimbabwe within hours of the deal being signed. Instead, there is little for Mr Tsvangirai to show for his struggle, a man in office but not in power.
Perhaps both the new prime minister and the donors should have heeded the Zimbabwe proverb: The last bite of a dying snake is as dangerous as the first.
Holman is former Africa editor of the Financial Times. His second novel, Fatboy and the Dancing Ladies, was published by Abacus last month.
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