Philip Ochieng
27 September 2008
column
Nairobi — The ODM's victory in the two by-elections is double-edged.
First, it seems to belie the common perception that, since December, Raila Odinga's fortunes have drastically dwindled among the Kalenjin, especially in the South Rift.
But it may mean merely that the ODM's rivals were not creditable. Sympathy for the ODM candidates may also have been intensified by the fact that they are the unhappy female relatives of the MPs whose deaths occasioned the mid-term polls.
If the latter, then the Orange Democratic Movement and Mr Odinga still have an uphill task in the Rift Valley. The present victory gives them only a momentary breather. It does not take away the many political issues linked to the much more important 2012 contest.
At least two closely related issues confront the Prime Minister which he must resolve both quickly and with aplomb -- the Mau controversy and Mr William Ruto.
Actually, the two are one. Mau is subsumed in the larger problem of the ODM's need to maintain Kalenjin support.
That is the issue Mr Ruto personifies. For some reason, the Kalenjin have emerged as the most important "power-broker" tribe -- perennially and dangerously since Kenya's politics is tied to ethnic alliances and counter-alliances.
In short, "Onjelo" is the fulcrum around which the ODM's victory will rotate in 2012. Simultaneously with their emergence as the pivot, Mr Ruto has effectively replaced former President Daniel arap Moi as the spokesman for that numerous and sprawling community.
The immediate issue is the party's number two position. Mr Ruto is expected to contest it. And -- if I may remark -- he eminently qualifies for that position (both as the leader of a key community and as an extraordinarily energetic and politically resourceful individual).
Holding Raila to ransom
But the question is this. Is Mr Ruto using his unique position to hold Mr Odinga to ransom? Is he saying that if he is not named as the deputy, he will walk out on the party, the Kalenjin marching to his music like Robert Browning's rats of Hamelin in the Pied Piper's wake?
No, Mr Ruto has never uttered it. He seems to be much more astute than that. Nevertheless, ambition is the second name of every politician. Nobody enters politics with the idea that he will never at all aspire to the chief's position.
That is why the ODM leadership must treat Mr Ruto with care and respect. For he will be the subject of great pressures. Powerful and moneyed Kalenjins (and individuals from other tribal communities in their own narrow interests) will be urging him to ditch the ODM and form his own Kalenjin-based party.
Arrogance -- based, for instance, on this week's victory and on the party's numeral supremacy in Parliament -- may induce the ODM's leadership to ignore these possibilities. They will have risked losing both the Kalenjin and the 2012 polls.
But, of course, politics is never so linear. Kalenjin importance is not absolute. You cannot give in to it at the total expense of every other consideration. For instance, the ODM already has a de facto deputy party leader, and he represents a community which is hardly less important.
When, at a 2007 party congress, Mr Odinga himself named Mr Musalia Mudavadi as his lieutenant, uppermost in his mind was the numerical significance of his Luhya neighbours -- a community often at daggers-drawn with Mr Odinga's Luo, but, nevertheless, their most intimate marital relatives.
Thus, like the Kalenjin, the Luhya cannot be taken for granted. If you unilaterally remove Mr Mudavadi to accommodate Mr Ruto, although you will have pleased the Kalenjin, you will also have angered the Luhya. In short, you will have wrecked the already extremely delicate big-tribe equilibrium at the top.
Ride roughshod
But that question goes to Mr Ruto as much as to Mr Odinga. If, as Mr Ruto says, he is committed to the party 100 per cent, how can he wish to ride roughshod over it for the sake of personal ambition?
No, although democracy entitles him to fully fight for that position, he hasn't threatened to do so at the expense of the party's unity.
In my opinion, the best way is for what used to be called the Pentagon to meet and negotiate the positions amicably. And Mr Odinga can use just such an occasion to negotiate something that may solve even the Mau forest controversy and the South Rift ill-feelings.
The Luo members of the Cabinet include many embarrassing liabilities. If, in the next reshuffle, he replaces them with the two newly-elected MPs, he will have killed two birds with one stone.
He will have assuaged the South Rift anger and, at the same time, reduced the glaring gender injustice in our central governing body.
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2008 The Nation. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
