Patrick Mayoyo, Walter Menya And David Mugonyi
27 September 2008
Nairobi — After coming out of the Bomet and Sotik by-elections unscathed, ODM now faces its major test in the forthcoming grassroots elections.
Although some politicians see the double win that came on the background of dissent from some MPs from the South Rift as a political victory for Prime Minister Raila Odinga, others argue that the elections will determine if the PM is actually in control of the party.
Already there is a cat fight between MPs from the Rift Valley and Western Kenya on who should be Mr Odinga's deputy between Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi and Agriculture Minister Raila Odinga.
Apart from the elections, Mr Odinga is faced with another headache - internal rebellion by MPs who want to form a Grand Opposition.
Already the Bill has been published and the first reading is expected once Parliament reconvenes in two weeks time. MPs behind the Bill led by Budalangi's Ababu Namwamba are pushing the first meeting of the House Business Committee to slot time for its debate.
Fierce battle
But that is not all. It still remains to be seen how the PM handles the slots left vacant by former Roads Minister Kipkalya Kones and Home Affairs Assistant Minister Lorna Laboso.
The victory by ODM MPs-elect Joyce Laboso (Sotik) and Beatrice Kones (Bomet) was not altogether unexpected but it came amidst a chorus of discontented voices from the South Rift over government plans to move people out of Mau Forest and previously, over what they called a raw deal in cabinet appointments.
Had ODM lost the seats, it would have fuelled the momentum for Mr Odinga's critics who have repeatedly said that he has short-changed them in sharing of Cabinet positions and stood against them in the Mau complex issue.
Mr Odinga has, however, dismissed reports that the party was divided and promised a free and fair grassroots elections.
"There are no divisions in ODM and those reports you are reading in the media are malicious and aimed at distracting the party from its affairs," said Mr Odinga.
He dismissed talk that Mr Mudavadi and Mr Ruto were locked in a fierce battle for the deputy party leader's position.
"We want our party to be united even after the elections so that we can move forward," said Mr Odinga.
Media reports have in the recent times predicted a tough balancing act for the PM to appoint either Mr Mudavadi or Mr Ruto without losing the support of either.
Party secretary Prof Nyong'o also weighed in telling off party critics that their plans to break the party would be in futility.
"The prophets of doom have not stopped their habits even after the Naivasha retreat and now the by-elections that ODM won. We are past the age of leaders running away to form parties because they cannot get into leadership positions," said Prof Nyong'o.
But the by-election results have put Rift Valley politicians who have been using the planned eviction of squatters in the Mau Complex and the sharing of Cabinet posts to hit out at Mr Odinga on the spot.
The politicians had voiced their displeasure with the way the party leadership was handling the planned eviction of hundreds of people who were settled in the Mau Complex.
Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto who openly defied the party and campaigned for a UDM candidate insists ODM was losing ground in Rift Valley. He argues that UDM was the party to watch in the next few years in the region.
Similar views are shared by Dr Julius Kones(Konoin) who argues that although ODM had easy wins in the 2007 General Election, it struggled during the three by-elections in Ainamoi, Bomet and Sotik.
Party's popularity
Dr Kones thinks the party's popularity was bruised as a result of the improved performance of the runners-up in the by-election.
The group that thinks ODM was losing ground in the region point out to the fact that although Mr Salat only managed 11,286 votes in the December elections, more voters cast their ballot for him in the Thursday by-election. Mr Salat got 15,015 votes on Thursday, 4,000 more than he got last December.
Dr Laboso won in Sotik by 24,267, her closest challenger, UDM's Alexander Sitienei improved tremendously from 2,566 he polled in the last General Election to 13, 843 on Thursday, 10,000 more.
In the Ainamoi by-election in June, ODM beat UDM by only 2,000 votes they add. Bomet mayor, Leonard Barsumei, also argues that Mr Odinga should not celebrate because of the results of the Sotik and Bomet by-elections.
"The outcome of the Sotik and Bomet by-elections is not a vote of confidence for Mr Odinga but it is a warning to him that he should address issues leaders from the area have been complaining about," he said.
In Bomet, Mrs Beatrice Kones emerged victorious after garnering 30,210 votes.
The results mean that the politicians who have rebelled against Mr Odinga and won't toe the party line have to go back to the drawing board and decide whether they want to remain adversarial to the PM or make peace and toe the party line.
Immediately after the formation of the Grand Coalition Government that resulted in the sharing of power between Mr Odinga and President Kibaki, a number of South Rift MPs voiced their displeasure over the matter saying they were short-changed in Cabinet slots.
And before the row over sharing of the Cabinet posts could fizzle out the controversy surrounding government plans to evict squatters who were settled in the Mau Complex emerged, sucking in legislators from North Riftwho also opposed the Mau evictions.
The MPs dismissed explanations that interests of those affected would be safeguarded as a Government ploy to hoodwink the evictees and said they would resist such a move at all costs.
But when Mr Odinga visited Sotik and Bomet during the campaigns for the by-elections, he approached the Mau question head-on and explained the government position on the matter.
The PM assured people who were settled in the area that some of them would be moved to other areas and helped to rebuild their homes.
He said that plans had been put in place to seek funds from donors to help implement recommendations of a task force appointed to look into the Mau forest land issue.
Mr Odinga asked the South Rift residents to be wary of those spreading misinformation saying political propaganda should be kept out of the Mau issue because of its grave environmental implications.
Agriculture Minister William Ruto, helped quell discontent when he told rallies in Sotik and Bomet that no one will be evicted without an alternative land and compensation.
Regional Development minister Fred Gumo and Assistant ministers Elizabeth Ongoro and Dr Oburu Oginga emphasized that the party needed to enforce party discipline measures against the Chepalungu MP.
"The party has proved once again that it is the people's party in Rift Valley and anyone who wants to hold us at ransom should think twice. In ODM no one is indispensable," said Mrs Ongoro.
Mr Ruto however called for tolerance within the party and added that ODM had its own internal mechanisms to handle its affairs.
Free hand
"Those who are making noise should not stop us from moving forward. "We also have to note that Kenya is a democratic society and we cannot stop people from shouting," said Mr Ruto.
Bureti MP Franklin Bett earlier pleaded with the PM and the Pentagon to ensure party supporters were given a free hand to elect people of their choice at the elections that begin on November 22.
According to a section of leaders, the win by ODM candidates in the Sotik and Bomet by-elections is not only seen as a win for the party but an endorsement on the position he has taken on the Mau Complex land saga.
According to former cabinet Minister and Chepalungu MP, Mr John Koech, the win by ODM is a clear indication that local residents agree with Mr Odinga's explanations on the Mau issue and the sharing of cabinet posts.
Mr Koech said people who had settled in the Mau or their relatives believe that they will be compensated as indicated by Mr Odinga and that is why they supported ODM candidates despite what was said by some leaders from the South Rift on the issue.
On grumbling of by some MPs over the sharing of cabinet posts Mr Koech said the electorate in the area had shown that is not as big an issue to them as the political leaders want to make it.
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