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Zimbabwe: Making the Most of the Deal

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The people of Zimbabwe have looked desperately for months to the political negotiations between the ZANU-PF under Robert Mugabe and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) under Morgan Tsvangirai to restore clarity and normality to their tortured country.

As welcome as it was, the agreement signed last week will only satisfy this modest goal if the political and civic leaders of Zimbabwe, supported by the international community, take bold steps to transform its words into actions.

In some ways, the agreement is painfully vague. Its power-sharing provisions, for example, seem to create two centers of power, with Mugabe as president and head of the cabinet, and Tsvangirai as prime minister and head of a new “council of ministers.” While the numbers of ministers for each grouping was agreed to, key ministries such as defence, home affairs, finance, information, and foreign affairs are up for grabs.

Further, the hope that Mugabe would see the agreement as a first step toward national reconciliation vanished even before the ink was dry. His vicious and paranoid harangue against perceived enemies foreign and domestic at the signing ceremony itself quashed any hopeful expectation. And in case the message wasn’t clear, he then went on national television to reaffirm that ZANU-PF remains in the driver’s seat and “will not tolerate any nonsense from our new partners,” an overt threat of new violent repression of the parties that won the March elections.

But Mugabe’s authoritarian and divide-and-rule tactics cannot be allowed to hijack the accord and, more broadly, Zimbabwe’s future. As Tsvangirai has pointed out, the agreement belongs to the people of Zimbabwe. Indeed, the accord includes much that can be welcomed and built upon, such as commitments to an inclusive process with civil society to draft a new constitution, move to new elections, and address dire concerns over the disastrous humanitarian situation, land distribution, political violence, and the free-falling economy.

The international community must show solidarity with this process. Even as the details of the agreement are being hammered out, important steps can already be taken.

In the first instance, the international community must make clear that targeted sanctions on ZANU-PF obstructionists and others will remain in place for the foreseeable future, at least until there are clear actions – not just signatures on paper or conciliatory words – to shift executive power to the MDC.

Planning for large-scale development assistance should advance at break-neck speed, with the World Bank and UNDP playing key roles.  But disbursement should depend on Tsvangirai getting full control over the economic ministries, the adoption of  reasonable development strategies, overhauls the fiscal and replacing Mugabe’s crony Gideon Gono as head of the reserve bank.  In any case, Zimbabwe’s economic and physical infrastructure is in such disorder that its capacity to absorb large immediate inflows of capital.

It will take considerable time and tough measures – including reducing subsidies and cutting government positions - to squeeze multi-million percent inflation out of Zimbabwe’s economy. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwean people will be expecting an immediate peace dividend.

To address these expectations, there should be emergency projects to provide food aid and to help move the literally millions of people affected by Mugabe’s displacement campaigns back to their homes, which will in turn allow young people to return to school, health programs to take root and local economies to revitalize. These programs should include assistance to rebuild houses, establish micro-enterprises and reconstruct basic infrastructure.

At the same time, the international community should help fund immediate programs to create jobs - paid in hard currency - for the unemployed, especially young people. While far from a long-term solution, it could prove to be an essential investment just as it did last year when the UN gave $5 million to Sierra Leone to hire young kids to pick up garbage on the streets of Freetown in advance of national elections.

Similarly, programs to rebuild civil society groups should be launched throughout the country. Mugabe’s divide-and-rule strategies have polarized Zimbabwe over the past years and destroyed the nation-wide character of religious, press, labor, academic, women’s and youth groups. Strengthening civil society will not only help reconcile the country, but would also serve as an important antidote to the last years monopolization of power in the hands of the presidency. Similarly, program to assist the resurrection of the judiciary and legislature would also restore the balance of power lost by virtue of Mugabe’s pernicious abuse of executive power.

The international community cannot afford to stand back and either bemoan the inadequacies of the current power-sharing agreement or allow Mugabe to victimize his compatriots in his cynical pursuit of power. If we adopt a “wait-and-see” attitude, what we are likely to see is a return to the politics of violence, division and repression that have come to characterize the last years of Mugabe’s rule.

Donald Steinberg, deputy president for policy at International Crisis Group, served as special assistant for African affairs to President Clinton. Sydney Musamvu is Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Africa.


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Comments 1 to 5 of 18 Post a comment

  • prem
    Oct 1 2008, 14:48

    The joint authors surprisingly have kept silent on the pressing need to tackle also the widespread corruption, the fate of Mugabe's cronies at the head of various institutions like the Army, Police and Prisons services, the Reserve Bank, etc.

    It is obvious that these will act deliberately in favour of ZANU-PF with a clear eye on the planned coming elections in 18 months.

    The authors are too optimistic that if their suggested ideas are implemented Zimbabwe will change course for the better.

    Whatever happens in the coming months, Mbeki's scheme forced upon Tsvangirai has got its own inbuilt explosive mix. The three parties will be unable to cooperate for the higher interest of the citizens. First of all, their survival instinct will commit them to groom their respective image at the expense of the others.

    Real change will only come after the elections in 18 months time, if ever the lunatic Mugabe can be reigned in to respect his signature on the power-sharing agreement.

  • Phiri
    Oct 1 2008, 19:38

    Prem, interesting analysis, even though I do not agree with it! Be careful what you wish for...Even if Mugabe were to die, there is not guarantee of real peace or economic prosperity. Tsvangirai, has not yet been put to test of leadership. Signs are that he will do well and restore Zimbabwe to it's old glory....but you never know.

  • afro-dizziac
    Oct 2 2008, 04:57

    Prem, Pristine, Pure, Perfect and Pontificating - You spend every waking moment monitoring this website and wagging your index finger at us Africans s though your very life depended on it. Britain has ammassed people like you, all her NGO's, her ambassadors, her diplomats, all her broadcast, print and electronic media as well as all the Rent-A-Blacks who work on white owned newspapers in Africa to daily express her opinion on Zimbabwe and post it to this website!!! The strategy has backfired - Britains desperation over Zimbabwe is now palpable. Britain no longer has a sense of proportion. She no longer cares that she is embarrassing herself on the world stage over Zimbabwe. One of the most embarrassing episodes in recent memory was watching the Labour Party Conference giving a standing ovation to the Speak of the House of the Zimbabwe parliament!!! You could'nt make it up. anyway I am going to leave to do what you do best. Monitor this website and preach to us Africans. Good Day.

  • Makasa
    Oct 2 2008, 06:02

    Afro dimwit , it may help if you listened to some of the good advice and took heed to the finger wagging. Afrika is a mess because of afro dimwits like you who like to play the blame game. What have you ever done good for Afrika but spout slogans against the west that are not helpful or true ? It scares you that some Afrikans recognise your ineptitude to do anything so you resort to name calling , like rent a Black, people like you cause the world to Resent A Black and do not help our cause. I used to read the comics but sadly my Afrikan brothers provide more laughs with their ridiculous diatribe on here. No wonder Prem monitors this website. He or She has an excellent sense of humour and enjoys a good chuckle ! All the best Afro dimwit.

  • katz
    Oct 3 2008, 02:30

    Prem - I must have missed it somewhere along the line, but I was not aware that an election in 18 months is being discussed. I thought that the proposed GNU was meant to last 5 years (5 weeks is looking a little optimistic at present). Can you confirm for me that 18 months is being talked about. Thanks

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